M&M Field of Dreams Sports

These Are The Days

2009-04-19T04:54:00.000-07:00

During the beginning of the 70s TV Comedy All In The Family Archie and Edith were at the piano singing Those Were the Days. As students of history, baseball or otherwards we have a tendency to look back in history to find those good old days. But sometimes the good old days are now. About 2 weeks ago I was speaking with Howie about the teams we drafted. And I made the comment I thought both of our Shortstops(Stephen Drew and Troy Tulowitski) will have big years. This also got me thinking about the current crop of shortstops in the NL. If you look back into baseball history there has never been anything close to the talent and depth of shortstops. For the most part for the past 100 years the position of SS was manned by the guy who hit 220 but had a good glove. The first great shortstop Honus Wagner was said to be not only a great hitter but the best fielding shortstop of his time. If we look at the top 20 shortstops of all time as listed by Bill James in the historical abstract-PUBLISHED IN 2001!!!!! we see some guys most fans have never even heard of

1.Honus Wagner
2.Arky Vaughn
3.Cal Ripken
4.Robin Yount
5.Ernie Banks
6.Barry Larkin
7.Ozzie Smith
8.Joe Cronin
9.Alan Trammell
10.Pee Wee Reese
11.Luke Appling
12.Lou Boudreau
13.Luis Aparicio
14.George Davis
15.Jim Fregosi
16.Phil Rizzuto
17.Alex Rodriguez
18.Hughie Jennings
19.Maury Wills
20.Johnny Pesky

As I said this list was complied in 2001 which helps illustrate my point very well. If you look at this list half these guys had almost no power at all. Almost all were good fielders with Vaughn and Fregosi being the exceptions. Only 8 of the 20 had lifetime 300 averages. And only Banks,Ripken,Wagner and A-Rod were considered power hitters in their time, Knowing that these were the greatest of all time should help us appreciate what we now have even more. As we all know things started to change at shortstop with Cal Ripken. Then around the turn of the century we had the big 4 in the AL. Everyone knew just how good the combination of A-Rod,Nomar, Jeter and Tejada was. We were told of a golden era at shortstop and that was absolutely true. But how many people are telling us how lucky we are to being baseball fans in 2009 and seeing half a dozen guys all either in their primes of just approaching their best years. And they all play in the weaker league.

1.Hanley Ramirez-A true five tool guy who can beat with power, speed or average. His fielding is a bit erratic and this point in his career but all the physical tools to be a gold glover are there. And he keeps getting better and better.

2.Jose Reyes-Everyone knows what a prolific base stealer Reyes is but then his batting gets overlooked by some. This guy is a 200 hit a year machine. Now playing his games in Citi Field he should smash all post world war 2 records for triples. And he has double figure HR power. Another guy who is still improving.

3.Jimmy Rollins-Rollins already has an MVP award. And like the above two guys can beat you with both his legs and his bat. Rollins is also the heart and soul of the team that won the World Series. Pee Wee Reese, Phil Rizzuto and Derek Jeter got alot of credit for being leaders on championship teams why not J-Roll.

4.Stephen Drew-Quick name the SS who has the most extra base hits over the past two seasons? Wrong, its Stephen Drew. Another player who still hasn't reached his magic 27 season. I predict this guy will be a superstar. He started the season hitting 3rd.

5,Troy Tulowitski-Great rookie year. And he was hurt last year in the first half but came back with a strong second half. This guy is a outstanding hitter anywhere. But playing in Coors certainly does not hurt. This will only be his third season. He should be the cornerstone of the Rox going forward.

6.Rafael Furcal-This is the one guy who is not in the mid 20 age range. Furcal has been one of the steadiest most consistent performers for years. While his career numbers don't jump out at you they are very solid. A career 286 average which would put him in about the middle of the above top 20 list. 260 stolen bases is a terrific number that should easily go over 300 by the time he retires. And a career slugging average of 412 tells he is just not a singles hitter. At 31 he certainly has some more years in the tank.

7.JJ Hardy-Hardy is a guy who is notorious for having one great half and one awful half. If he can do it over 162 games he could be very dangerous.

So if you are watching a NL game today chances are you are seeing an above average SS. Twenty years when some of us are reaching retirement and other are reaching the primes of their lives we will all be able to say remember the good old days when we had HanRam, Reyes and J-Roll all in the same division. Its time someone other than me talks about this.

This weeks notes-This week saw two players hit for cycles. Orlando Hudson and Ian Kinsler. If did not know how rare it is to hit for the cycle but here is a couple of incredible stats. 1-O-Dogs cycle was the first one ever by a Dodger in Dodger Stadium. 2.Three teams San Diego,Florida and Tampa have never had a cycle. Kinsler ended up with 6 hits in his game.

Milestones-Gary Sheffield hit his 500 HR this week. It was the first time ever that a player hit his 500th as a pinch hitter. And on Monday night Paul Konerko and Jermaine Dye each hit their 300th Homer in back to back at bats.

Random Notes-I watched alot of the KC-Texas game last night. Zack Grienke was absolutely dominant. What struck me was in the ninth with him at just about 100 pitches he gave up a hit with one out. The score was 2-0 KC. Soria is warming up in the Royals pen. Trey Hillman comes out and leaves Grienke in. Wow it was like old school lets actually let a starting pitcher finish a game. And Grienke did complete his shutout the first complete game shutout of his career. And knowing he did it in Texas against that powerful Ranger lineup made it that much more of an incredible accomplishment.

Toronto is pounding the baseball and getting decent pitching after Roy Halladay. Toronto is now 9-4 with the best record in the AL. But I'm ready buying.

The Marlins keep winning. I'm sticking with 85 wins. Somehow I can't see the Fish averaging close to 7 runs a game for very much longer.

Brad Lidge blew a save last night his first in over a year as a Phillie. Last season Philys bullpen had a season for the ages. Some regression is to be expected.

Fantasy-Well after two weeks Howie is on top. I know he was happy with his team right after the draft and they have not disappointed. And if A-Rod comes back strong this could be a good season for the Northern Hirsch's. As for the rest of us the standings change on a nightly basis. Its kind of like a rugby scrum. Hopefully this week brings all of us good pitching and NO INJURIES(sorry Mike). Have a good week.

And Away We Go

2009-04-12T16:26:00.000-07:00

The 2009 baseball season is now one week old. With one week in the books I figured I'd comment on some of the things I witnessed this week.

Fact or Fiction????-Today's installment deals with the Florida Marlins. The Fish are now 5-1 after taking 2 out of 3 from the Mets. I can just see it coming, at some point soon someone in the media will compare this team to the other team that plays here in Florida. So I may as well do it now. Last season the Rays proved you can greatly improve if you have two things. 1.Starting Pitching and 2..Very good team defense. As for the Marlins starters this group is for real. Nolasco. Johnson, Volstad and Sanchez have the potential to rival any teams top 4 starters. Josh Johnson today was simply outstanding. And you can make the argument that Ricky Nolasco was the second best pitcher in the second half of last season. There is no questioning any of these guys stuff. The potential pitfall comes from Johnson and Sanchez coming off major surgery's. As of now they both look as good or better than before the operations. Another potential red flag will be just how many innings these young studs can give the Fish. The max innings Josh Johnson ever threw in one season was 157 and Anibal Sanchez only went 114 innings. I've got to believe Fredi Gonzalez will be very careful with these guys. Which brings us to Florida's bullpen. This group won't scare too many people. Matt Lindstrom throws very hard but only seems to have that one pitch. When he gets a secondary pitch he could be lights out but he isn't quite there yet. The rest of the pen has guys like Kiko Calero, Leo Nunez and Dan Meyer. In Friday nights game Sanchez was fantastic giving up no runs over five innings. He was dominating a very good Met lineup. Then the bullpen gave up the lead twice including a run in the top of the 9th before they pulled it out in the bottom of the 9th. I fear this may be a pattern. As for the defense it should be improved from last season. Last season they were 2nd in the NL in most errors. With Jorge Cantu at first and Jeremy Hermeida moving to left it should upgrade the defense. In addition Cameron Maybin will cover alot of ground. But they are nowhere close to Tampa's defense. When I did my predictions I gave Florida third place and about 85 wins. After watching them this weekend I think that's about right.

Something also occurred in Friday nights Met-Marlin game I found very interesting. The Mets trailing by one in the 8th brought in JJ Putz to pitch. I applauded the move. The logic being if JJ can keep it a one run game than hopefully the bats could get at least one. As it happened the Mets tied up the game. So with a tie game in the bottom of the ninth I was hoping Jerry Manuel would have continued this aggressive style of using his new bullpen. But instead of putting in K-Rod in a tie game in the bottom of the ninth he chose to bring in Pedro Feliciano who got into trouble and then with the game on the line the last guy in the Mets pen Darren O'Day was on the mound to give up the game losing hit. Its easy to criticize strategy after it fails but this is a constant with me. If I'm in a tie game in the 9th I'm using my best pitcher. At that point in the game the bottom of the ninth was the most important point. If you use anything other than your best you may never get to use him. Especially with the way the Mets were scoring off Florida's bullpen. I hope Jerry Manuel doesn't use K-Rod as only a three out guy in a save situation. While it may boost his save totals it will undoubtedly cost the team games. And isn't it what that's what its all about???

Thankfully this week I only heard the term at this pace once this week. Its pointless to tell me in the third game of the season at this pace a guy will score 254 runs!!!!

This one drives me mad. You just see a score from a game in which you have a player on your fantasy team. The real team scores like 12 runs but your guy goes 0-5. This happened twice to me this week.

Finally one word about the start of our fantasy league. I'm REALLY!!!!! happy to see all the teams except one have already made moves. Hopefully everyone will be it it all season long. Thats what makes it alot of fun. And after the first week congrats to Daniel for leading the pack. If this continues I'll never hear the end of it.

AL Predictions

2009-04-09T04:40:00.000-07:00

Its time to tackle the junior circuit. While its widely accepted that the AL is the tougher of the two leagues most of the big stars in MLB now seem to reside in the NL. In our draft 6 of the first 7 players were taken from the NL. With that being said its still much more difficult to get thought an AL lineup than one from the senior circuit. But I am curious to see if during inter league play the results won't be as lopsided as previous years.

AL EAST
1.Red Sox
2.Rays
3.Yankees
4.Blue Jays
5.Orioles

The best three teams in the AL all reside in this division. Its a shame that one of them will have to miss the playoffs. I believe the Red Sox have the best team in baseball. And with the possibility of a healthy John Smoltz and some point this season they will be that much better. The Rays should have another strong season. Their schedule in April is absolutely brutal. If they are hanging around when April turns to May watch out. The Yankees spent a zillion dollars to fix the pitching but three things would concern me 1.AJ Burnett can go down at anytime 2.The defense is way below average 3.They have alot of older players and older players get hurt. The Jays starting staff which was so good last year was decimated by injuries and free agent defections. Finally the Os will probably play good baseball for the first half like they usually do then fall apart in the second half. They have a few kids in the high minors ready to come up and at least make things interesting.

AL Central
1.Twins
2.Indians
3.Royals
4.Tigers
5.White Sox

This should be the closest division from top to bottom. You make make an argument for each team and then point out each teams faults. If pitching and defense win games than Minnesota is the best bet. I really like the Twins pitching, both starters and pen. The question will be can they score enough runs. The Tribe should not have much problems scoring runs its preventing them that may by the problem. I don't like their starting pitchers at all. Luckily the bullpen is deep because they will get alot of work. KC is the up and coming team in the division. Its been a very long time since I could have said that. Meche and Grienke are a very under rated duo. And they should score enough runs to earn a winning record. The Tigers went for broke last year and it did not pay off. The starters broke down and they have an awful defensive team. The talk of 1000 runs is now nothing but a memory. Finally the White Sox are in rebuilding mode. I'm expecting them to move their veterans like Jermaine Dye and Paul Konerko before the trading deadline.

AL West
1.Angels
2.Rangers
3.As
4.Mariners

The short stack is a very mediocre group. I'm picking the Angels but have no faith in the selection. They overachieved to 100 wins last year. The key will be 1.when Lackey,Santana and Escobar return 2.can they score enough runs without Mark Teixeira. I can see them only winning about 85 this season. Texas will pound people. They have a fantastic lineup. If they get even league average pitching they can pull off a surprise. The As are a very interesting team. with Trevor Cahill and Brett Anderson starting in the bigs we are seeing the future. This duo is very good. I expect the As to move Matt Holliday at the deadline for more prospects. This team is a year away but they are positioned to be good for years to come with a very small payroll. Haven't we seen this before???? As for the Ms they are going the Rays route with rebuilding their defense first. They have have the best defensive outfield in all of baseball. But unfortunately everything else lags behind.

AL Playoffs
Boton over Minnesota
Tampa over Angels

ALCS
Boston over Tampa

AL MVP-Josh Hamilton-Last year was what baseball people were expecting from this guy for years now. Like I said Texas will score often and he should have monster numbers. Runners Up-Miguel Cabrera and Nick Markakis

AL Cy Young-Joakim Soria-I thought long and hard about this and came to the conclusion that I can't see any AL Starters being that dominant. The Royals will play alot of close games and Soria should be lights out. Runners Up-Josh Beckett and Felix Hernandez

AL ROY-Travis Snider-This has the potential to be one of the best rookies classes in many years. Everyone knows David Price and Matt Wieters. I imagine their stay in the minors will be very short. Oaklands pitchers are also extremely talented. But I'm going with Travis Snider. This guy is very young but everyone says he has professional hitters written all over him. Like Jordan Schaffer he will start the season hitting at the bottom of the order but won't stay there long.

NL Predictions

2009-04-06T05:52:00.000-07:00

Unfortunately life has gotten in the way of writing the past few weeks. But with the season upon us I've decided to try to have something new up every Monday and Thursday. Since everyone is currently making predictions I figured I 'll make mine. And I'm sure seven months from now I'll be asking myself what were you possibly thinking. One quick note before the predictions these are made with my head and not my heart.

NL East-By far the best division in the NL. While everyone is talking about the Mets and Phils both the Marlins and the Braves will both be very much improved. As for Washington I can't see any situation where they don't finish in the cellar.

1.Mets
2.Phils
3.Marlins
4.Braves
5.Nats

I see the Mets winning about 92 games and not blowing it this year. After a very small sampling it appears Citi Field will be a very good pitchers park with Homers being depressed even more than Shea. But with that big outfield BAs should go up. Opposing teams will have to play their fastest outfielders there. I would not be stunned if the Mets produce their first batting champion. The World Champs should win about 88. They have a prolific lineup that will score alot of runs. Last season their bullpen wasn't just good it was historically good. A drop off is normal. The Marlins will be one of the interesting stories of 2009. They have a terrific collection of young pitchers and some young hitters that are probably 1 to 2 years away. All being led by one of the games best players in Han Ram. Let give them 85 wins. Atlanta had a good offseason. Derek Lowe was fantastic last night. Javy Vazquez going to the weaker league should bounce back away from the Cell. Getting Garrett Anderson for little more than a song was a terrific pickup. And watch Jordan Schaffer he may end up being NL ROY. I'll give them 83 wins. The Nats are over matched in every phase. Their young players are walking time bombs. Something nice??? I like Ryan Zimmerman. 65 Wins

NL Central

This should be the most lopsided division in all of baseball. Its the Cubs and everyone else. Every other team in the division has significant holes.

1.Cubs
2.Brewers
3.Reds
4.Cards
5.Astros
6.Pirates

The Cubbies have the most complete team in the NL. They hit, pitch and catch better than anyone. And they should be hungry after last season. Besides how can I pick against any team with Rich Harden? 97 wins. Places 2.3 and 4 could go in any order. I like Milwaukee's lineup but the starters have alot of questions. Though I believe Gallardo may be in for a nice year. Cincy is the team on the rise in the division. They take a big step forward this year and seriously contend next year. St. Louis needs everything to fall into place. IF Chris Carpenter stays healthy the starters will be pretty good. They will need a few players to step up and help Albert Pujols. Those three teams should all have about 84 wins. Houston's record was not indicative of their 2008 season. Based on runs scored and runs given up they over achieved more than any team in MLB. The middle of the lineup is still potent. But after Oswalt and Wandy Rodriguez the starters are a mess. 75 wins maybe. The Bucs seems finally to be on the right track. They seem to be committed to building with kids. The pitching staff is not bad. 2009 will be a long year but at least they are going in the right direction. 70 wins.

NL West

This should be a interesting race between LA and Arizona. With the Giants having the best pitching in the division. Colorado is in full rebuilding mode. With the Padres will probably be the worst team in the NL this year. I expect Jake Peavy traded by June 1.

1.Diamondbacks
2.Dodgers
3.Giants
4.Rockies
5.Padres

Arizona is ready to win now. The lineup is loaded with players just about reaching their prime with experience. And no combination of front line starters are more dependable than Brandon Webb and Dan Haren. 94 wins and a division title for the Snakes. The defending NL West champs should be close this year. Will Manny be the monster we saw last year for 162 games? Probably not. The team is solid. And should be in it all year long. 88 wins and a date with the Phils for a wild card berth. The Giants have scarry good pitching. Lincecum, Cain, Zito, Sanchez and Johnson. But will they score any runs? They need to get a bat at the trading deadline. Lets give them 81 wins. Colorado is rebuilding. The cornerstones are already their with Tulo, Ianetta Jimenez. I'd bet Atkins gets moved for more prospects by the trading deadline. They have a collection of terrific prospects that are coming. Watch Dexter Fowler this year. 75 wins. Finally San Diego fans will suffer a very long year. The big question for me is will they lose 100. Yep 62-100.

Playoffs-LA over Phily in a wild card tie breaker

Cubs over LA-Revenge is sweet
Mets over Arizona-The Mets always seem to well against Arizona pitchers

Cubs over Mets-Hopefully I'm wrong!!!!!

NL MVP-David Wright- Citi Field will take about 5 HRs away from him but add 20 pts to his batting average. Also I could see the Mets running more this year. Runners Up, Albert Pujols and Jose Reyes

NL Cy Young-Johan Santana- About the only way to score off Johan is to hit Homers off him and alot of those Homers at Shea will not go out of Citi Field. If he could only learn to pitch in April. Runners Up-Brandon Webb and Dan Haren

NL ROY-Jordan Schaffer-It seems all the good rookies will be in the AL. Schaffer should be the real deal. He will start the season at the bottom of the Braves order with little expectations and then rise in that order as the season progresses. Runner Up-Jason Motte

So now its your turn. I don't want to be the only one to stick my neck out. Comment on this piece and leave YOUR predictions. I'll do the AL on Thursday.

Cleveland Indians-Team Preview

2009-03-11T08:33:00.000-07:00

2008 Team Record 81-81

Projected Lineup

C-Victor Martinez 2-35-278

1B-Ryan Garko 14-90-273

2B-Asdubal Cabrera 6-47-259

SS-Jhonny Peralta 23-89-276

3B-Mark DeRosa 21-87-285

LF-Ben Francisco 15-54-266

CF-Grady Sizemore 33-90-268

RF-Shin Soo Choo 14-66-309

DH-Travis Hafner 5-24-197

Projected Rotation

Cliff Lee 22-3-2.54

Fausto Carmona 8-7-5.44

Carl Pavano 4-2-5.77

Anthony Reyes 4-2-2.76

Aaron Laffey 4-7-4.23

Bullpen

Kerry Wood 5-4-3.26 34

Jensen Lewis 0-4-3.82 13

Rafael Perez 4-4-3.54 2

Whats To Like
1.Wheres the Fire?-Mark Shapiro, one of the sharp young GMs in the game did a excellent job rebuilding the horror show the was the Tribes bullpen. Not only did they sign a real closer in Kerry Wood. They filled the pen with very good arms just in case Wood goes down(not an impossible thing). Not only do they have Jensen Lewis who did a very good job closing at the end of last year. They also have Rafael Perez, Joe Smith, Rafael Betancourt and Masahide Kobayashi. This crew should be an asset and not a weakness.
2.And Down the Stretch-With the Tribe pretty much out of the race they put together their best two months of the season at the end. Remember this was after the trade of CC Sabathia. As an outsider its hard to know exactly who should get the credit for this but I'm sure Eric Wedge deserves alot. If you can have a team play hard when they are out of it. Think what they can do if they contend. FYI the Tribe was 34-21 in Aug. and Sept.

Whats Not to Like
1.And the starter will be who?-This starting staff is full of question marks. Last year Cliff Lee had a dream season. He will be very hard pressed to win 20 again will this group. More about Fausto Carmona later. If Carl Pavano is penciled in for your third starter you know your in trouble. And the rest of the staff will be filled out by once and future prospects like Anthony Reyes, Aaron Laffey, Jeremy Sowers and Scott Lewis. Best case scenario they are league average. More likely they cause the Tribe to fall behind on most nights.
2.Slow, Slower and Slowest-This is a team outside of Grady Sizemore with NO speed. They stole 77 bases last year with Sizemore swiping 38. And as I've said in the past on this blog. Speed is not only important stealing bases. Its critical in the field. The lack of speed will cost the Indians in alot of ways that might not be readily seen.

Fantasy Focus
Fausto Carmona-As a rule batters are more consistent and stable than pitchers. Pitchers are dependant on factors outside of their own control to be successful. The most obvious two are run support for wins and a good defense to make good plays to keep their ERA down. Errors happen to all teams. But the good defensive teams turn hits into outs. I bring this up because if you knew nothing about baseball and looked at Carmona's stats over the past three years you'd be really confused. In 2006 1-10-5.26 In 2007 19-8 3.06 and in 2008 8-7-5.44. How is this possible? Well last years difficulties can be traced to a few placed but maybe the most damning stat he walked more hitters than he struck out. Last season he had 58 Ks and 70 BBs. In 2007 his good year his numbers were 137Ks/61BBs. So what about 2009? I think the real Carmona is somewhere between 2007 and 2008. He is a guy that you can probably get in the later rounds. If his control is good he can be a steal. If he is not drafted watch that K/BB ratio early if its good someone should grab him off the waiver wire pretty quickly.

Fun Fact
Cliff Lee was simply amazing last season. One of the numbers that you won't find on the back of a baseball card that is really important when explaining his success is Lee only had 3 stolen base attempts against him all year!!!!!

Outlook
For a team that was so close just two years ago it now faces a real uphill battle. The team has holes all over. IF!!! Martinez and Hafner both return to pre-injury levels and the young pitchers work out it will be a smoothie transition season. But everything has to go right for this team to contend. The AL Central is totally up in the air. But for now I'll say the Tribe finish 4th.

Cincinnati Reds-Team Preview

2009-03-09T06:07:00.000-07:00

2008 Team Record 74-88

Projected Lineup

C-Ramon Hernandez 15-65-257

1B-Joey Votto 24-84-297

2B-Brandon Phillips 21-78-261

SS-Alex Gonzalez Out for 2008

3B-Edwin Encarnacion 26-68-251

LF-Chris Dickerson 6-15-304

CF-Willy Taveras 1-26-251

RF-Jay Bruce 21-52-254

Projected Rotation

Aaron Harang 6-17-4.38

Bronson Arroyo 15-11-4.77

Edinson Volquez 17-6-3.21

Johnny Cueto 9-14-4.81

Micah Owings 6-9-5.93

Bullpen

Francisco Cordero 5-4-3.33 34

David Weathers 4-6-3.25

Jared Burton 5-1-3.22

Whats To Like
1.And the Youth Shall Lead-Any team that has a quartet of 25 and under players such as Edinson Volquez, Johnny Cueto, Joey Votto and Jay Bruce has the nucleus to compete for years to come. I would think the Reds should definitely try to lock Votto and Bruce up long term. As I talked about in an earlier piece signing pitchers to long term deals is very risky. The Reds have the Dominican duo for at least two more years before they really have to think about long term deals for them.
2.The New Boss, Different from the Old Boss-For years the Reds were one of the worst run teams in baseball. Starting with Marge Schott to the parade of incompetent GMs. But now Walt Jockerty who was the architect of the Cardinal teams from the last few years is in on board to runs the Reds. Jockerty always has a knack for finding veterans and overlooked players with small salaries. The days of horrible trades should be over in Cincy.

Whats Not to Like
1.Wheres First????-The Reds had the 3rd worst OBA in the NL last season last season. And adding Willy Taveras a career 331 to hit lead off will not help out much. The offense needs to walk more and strikeout less.
2.Keep It in the Park-Cincy allowed the most homers of any team in the NL. While this can be partly explained by playing in Great American Ballpark. The real problem lies in that this staff is made up of predominately fly ball pitchers. Aaron Harrang and Johnny Cueto are definite fly ball pitchers. Owings, Arroyo and Volquez are more neutral. Last year the combination of fly balls yielded and the worst HR/FB ratio in the NL .13 spelled doom.

Fantasy Focus
Edwin Encarnacion-There are a few players that you always think great things are on the way. But for one reason or another it never seems to happen. Encarncion seems to be one of those guys. While he increased to 26 HRs last year just about all other numbers seem stagnant or going in the wrong direction. His BA dropped 36 points. Even with those extra 11HRs he has 8 less RBIs. And only 1 SB after averaging close to 10. Someone will probably draft him and he might explode but the numbers don't forsee a sustained breakout from him

Fun Fact
Micah Owings is a career 319 hitter. And his career SLG is 552. Which places him second on the team only behind Joey Votto.

Outlook
For the first time in decades Red fans have real reason for optimism. The young players are there. A very deep rotation with Homer Bailey waiting in the wings. The Reds will not win the Central this year but they are closer than any time in awhile. I'll say they improve by 7 games and end by around 81-81.

Chicago White Sox-Team Preview

2009-03-05T04:44:00.000-08:00

2008 Team Record 89-79

Projected Lineup

C-AJ Pierzynski 13-60-281

1B-Paul Konerko 22-62-240

2B-Chris Getz 0-1-286

SS-Alexei Ramirez 21-77-290

3B-Josh Fields 0-2-156

LF-Carlos Quentin 36-100-288

CF-Brian Anderson 8-26-232

RF-Jermaine Dye 34-96-292

DH-Jim Thome 34-90-245

Projected Rotation

Mark Buerhle 15-12-3.79

John Danks 12-9-3.32

Gavin Floyd 17-8-3.84

Bartolo Colon 4-2-3.92

Clayton Richard 2-5-6.04

Bullpen

Bobby Jenks 3-1-2.63 30

Scott Linebrink 2-2-3.69 1

Matt Thornton 5-3-2.67 1

Whats To Like
1.How do you spell Relief-The bullpen is by far the best part of this team. Along with the three I mentioned above they also have Octavio Dotel. The Sox should be able to shorten games for a very questionable starting staff.
2.Carlos Quentin-Sure the 36 dingers and 100 RBIs are nice but any player who breaks a bone in anger is my kind of guy.

Whats Not To Like
1.No Direction Home-Since the White Sox were eliminated by the Rays in the playoffs almost everything they have done this off season is questionable at best. I understand about not wanted to get old but Kenny Williams took a playoff team and turned them into a team that will be very lucky to win 75 games.
2.Lets get THIS started-If Bartolo Colon is penciled in for my 4th starter I know my rotation has issues. The Sox are hoping Jose Contreras can help. If the White Sox are rebuilding having Contreras and Colon is not the way to go.

Fantasy Focus
Gavin Floyd-Fact or Fiction???? If you look very closely at Floyd's numbers he gives indications he is either ready to take the next step to be a big winner or he is about to prove 2008 was a mirage. Very few players have numbers going in both directions like Floyd. For example Floyd averaged only 6.3 Ks per 9 innings past season. While walking over 3 per 9. That a very questionable K/BB ratio of just 2/1. Floyd was lucky in the respect he had fantastic run support. On the positive side he is still only 26 and has shown growth throughtout his brief MLB career. If he can just cut down on the HRs yielded which for the past years was either 12-13% of fly balls he should be able to sustain success. As of now I'm a bit on the skeptical side. The White Sox are not going to be a good team so I don't believe he is worth drafting but he is worth keeping an eye on.

Fun Fact
Anyone who has read this blog since I've started doing this should know by now I'm very partial to strikeout pitchers versus contact pitchers. Mark Buerhle is amazing every day he gives up tons of base runners but always has a good record and a much better ERA than you'd expect. So how does he do it? He is three stats. 1.Buerhle gave up the most hits of any MLB pitcher 240. 2.He induced the most DPs of any pitcher in MLB with 39 3.He only gave up 5 Stolen Bases all year old in 12 attempts while picking off 6 runners. By the way Gavin Floyd gave up 37 Stolen Bases by far the most in MLB.

Outlook
Its not easy to go from first to worst but thats what I'm predicting for the White Sox. This was the division champs last year. I don't believe Kenny Williams had a tear apart this team. Especially in this year of free agent bargains. If the Sox just resigned their players and added a piece to the rotation they would have an excellent chance to repeat. Also whats puzzleling to me is if the White Sox had a prospects in the minors ready to take over I'd be able to understand their moves but its not the case. The only highly thought of prospects in the minors are SS Gordan Beckham and C Tyler Flowers and neither should contribute this season. 2 other predictions for this team are 1.They will be out of it by the trading deadline and will try to move Jermaine Dye 2.Ozzie Guillen will be fired by the All Star break.

Chicago Cubs Team Preview

2009-03-04T06:34:00.000-08:00

2008 Team Record 97-64

Projected Lineup

C-Geo Soto 23-86-285

1B-Derek Lee 20-90-291

2B-Mike Fontenot 9-40-305

SS-Ryan Theriot 1-38-307

3B-Aramis Ramirez 27-111-289

LF-Alfonso Soriano 29-75-280

CF-Kosuke Fukudome 10-58-257

RF-Milton Bradley 22-77-321

Projected Rotation

Carlos Zambrano 14-6-3.91

Ryan Dempster 17-6-2.91

Rich Harden 10-2-2.07

Ted Lilly 17-9-4.29

Sean Marshall 3-5-3.86

Bullpen

Carlos Marmol 2-4-2.68 7

Kevin Gregg 7-8-3.41 29

Aaron Heilman 3-8-5.21 3

Whats To Like
1.Balance-The Cubbies have the best balence of any team in the NL. If you look at the combination of offense, starting pitching and bullpen they have no weak area of the club.
2.Lets get this started-The Cubs have a very solid group of 5 starters I listed above. But if the unthinkable happens like an injury to Rich Harden they have Aaron Heilman and Jeff Samardzija just waiting for an opportunity. Not many teams have the luxury of having so many options.

Whats Not to Like
1.Not so Fast-Speed is one of the most under evaluated aspects in all of baseball. Just think its not just Stolen Bases, but its also getting to balls in the field and grounding into inning killing DPs. By all accounts Chicago's lack of seed is the team Achilles heal. And with Fukudome who has fantastic in right moving to center the Cubs defense becomes below average.
2.This team seems built for the 162 game marathon but not for the playoffs where dominant pitching and defense are key. While I love the deep rotation the only pitcher I'd be truly afraid to face in a short series is Rich Harden(if healthy). If they can get Jake Peavy it would address that in a hurry.

Fantasy Focus
Carlos Marmol-Marmol will get the opportunity to close for the Cubbies this year, a job he has never done for any amount of time before. So how should we evaluate him? Would I want to do is take Marmol and use him in a bigger discussion on how to spot guys who will make successful closers. Alot of people firstly mention the closer mentality. Some guys have it some don't. My feeling is this is something thats a bit overrated. If this "skill" was constant guys would not win jobs and lose them from year to year. Whats more important to me is what kind of stuff does. For me I look at two stats. 1.K/innings 2.K/BB. When you think of almost all the dominant closers they are almost all strikeout pitchers. The contact pitchers rarely succeed in the role. There has been exceptions like Dan Quizenberry but in general its the guys that strikeout hitters are the guys you want. Also walks are deadly both in real baseball and for your teams WHIP. Also two more factors contribute to a guy being successful as a closer that he has no control over. 1.opportunity-it makes sense that closers on better teams will have more chances for saves than closers on bad teams 2.competition-is there another guy in the pen thats ready to take his place if he struggles. For example for the Angels if Brian Fuentes blows a few like he did in Colorado two years ago they have Jose Arredondo ready and waiting. Conversely if Trevor Hoffman struggles in Milwaukee they have no one to take his place. So by all those factors lets look at Marmol. Firstly Marmol averaged 11.8 Ks per 9 innings last season. Thats a definite plus. His K/BB ratio last season was 2.8/1. Not bad but with his K rate it shows he walks to many hitters. Lets calls that neither a plus nor a minus. Opportunity-The Cubs are probably the best team in the NL major plus. Competition-Kevin Gregg who saved 27 games for Florida last year is ready and waiting so thats a minus. The final verdict is I like Marmol but he is not an absolute slam dunk.

Fun Fact
Maybe it was not such a good idea to let Jason Marquis go to Colorado. You see every year Marquis has been in the Majors his team won their division.

Outlook
This is a terrific team. They should be a heavy favorite to win the NL Central. If I was a betting man I'd say they will have the best record in the NL again. A fun thing to watch this summer is to see how longs it takes Lou Pinella to blow up at Milton Bradley. And then see who Milton Bradley blames it on. Seeing how the Cubs have not won the Series since 1908 the law of averages is bound to catch up to them soon. Its not to far fetched to think this is the year.

Boston Red Sox-Team Preview

2009-03-01T17:23:00.000-08:00

2008 Record 95-67

Projected Lineup

C-Jason Veritek 13-43-220

1B-Kevin Youkliss 29-115-312

2B-Dustin Pedroia 17-83-326

SS-Julio Lugo 1-22-268

3B-Mike Lowell 17-73-274

LF-Jason Bay 31-101-286

CF-Jacoby Ellsbury 9-47-280

RF-JD Drew 19-64-280

DH-David Ortiz 23-89-264

Projected Starters

Josh Beckett 12-10-4.03

Jon Lester 16-6-3.21

Daisuke Matsuzaka 18-3-2.90

Tim Wakefield 10-11-4.13

Brad Penney 6-9-6.27

Bullpen

Johnathan Papelbon 5-4-2.31 41

Hidecki Okajima 3-2-2.61 1

Manny Delcarmen 1-2-3.27 2

Justin Masterson 6-5-3.16

Whats to Like
1.Theo Epstein and da Boyz-The Sox have the best organization in all of baseball. From locking up vital members of their team. To trading players at the right time. To doing a great job of scouting and drafting. Yes they are a team with a large payroll but they still are considerably less than the Yankees.
2.The Sox have the deepest pitching staff in all of baseball. Just think if John Smoltz continues to heal he will join this terrific staff. Also I did not even mention Clay Buchholz who was the number 1 rated pitching prospect by Baseball Prosptus in 2008.

Whats Not to Like
1.Its Thin Out There-The Sox look most venerable in the outfield. Its certainly not a stretch to think JD Drew gets hurt at some point. As of now the backup outfielders are a very questionable Rocco Baldelli and Brad Wilkerson. This is the only part of the team that might need upgrading.
2.That Hurts-Many of the Sox players have a history of injury. Drew,Lowell,Ortiz,Baldelli,Beckett all have had spent time on the DL. The problem is the room for error is incredibly small in the AL East. If a few players go down here and there and the replacements while capable are not up to the level of the starters it might cost the Sox a few games over the course of the season. And it might be those few games that drops the Sox to being the third best team both in baseball AND the AL East.

Fantasy Focus

Dice K-So Dice K goes 18-3 with an ERA under 3 and plays on a terrific team so why is he not ranked in the top in fantasy pitchers? His stats speak on an ace, right? Well maybe not. Here is three stats that point to caution 1.His K/BB Ratio is a way below average 1.6. 2. His HR/FB was a very low 6%.3 And finally his BABIP(Batting Average of Balls In Play) was a ridiculously low 262. Sabermetrics has proven that for almost all pitchers BABIP is not a repeatable skill. The league average is right around 300. Regression to the mean is simply the rule. Dice K's BABIP in 2007 was 302. So he was probably quite lucky in 2008. I'm not saying he is not a good pitcher who is not worth owning. All I'm saying is don't expect a repeat of 2008.

Fun Fact

For a long time Red Sox Nation has lived and died with the longball. And if you ask most fans they would probably still say the Sox have one of the most powerful teams in all of baseball. But guess what the facts really don't back that up. They only hit 11 more HRs than the average AL team. Certanly not bad but not the awesome power some think they prowcess.

Outlook

As I write this I'd say the Red Sox have the best team in baseball from top to bottom. If Penney is healthy. and Smoltz is anywhere close to where he was before the injury when he returns(no rush) the Sox will have two MORE terrific pitchers at a bargain price. They also have money to spend at the trading deadline to trade for a player to make them better. About the only problems I see on the horizon are a rash of injury to their injury prone players and the teams that play in Tampa and the Bronx. I'd be VERY surprised if Red Sox Nation are not watching meaningful baseball in October for their beloved Sox.

Changes in Lattitude

2009-02-21T07:08:00.000-08:00

I'm off to all points south. Have a great week!!

Baltimore Orioles- Team Preview

2009-02-21T05:44:00.000-08:00

2008 Record 68-93

Projected Lineup

C-Matt Weiters- Rookie

1B-Aubrey Huff 32-108-304

2B-Brian Roberts 9-57-296

SS-Cesar Izturis 1-24-263

3B-Melvin Mora 23-104-285

LF-Felix Pie 1-10-241

CF-Adam Jones 9-57-270

RF-Nick Markakis 20-87-308

DH-Luke Scott 23-65-257

Rotation

Jeremy Guthrie 10-12-3.63

Koji Uehara

Rich Hill 1-0 -4.12

Matt Albers 3-3-3.49

Mark Henrickson 7-8-5.45

Bullpen

George Sherrill 3-5-4.73 31

Chris Ray Injured all Last Season

Jim Johnson 2-4-2.33 1

Whats to Like

1.Catch This-Matt Weiters is the consensus #1 hitting prospect in baseball. Catchers who can hit are a rarity. And by all accounts he will be an all star for a long time. His ETA is at some point this year
2.Signing B-Rob-Roberts has been the subject of trade rumors going back a couple of years now. Signing him to a 4 year deal makes sense. Even if Baltimore continues to struggle every team needs a veteran to give the franchise credibility

Whats Not to Like

1.It All Starts With Pitching-The Os staff should be locked in a duel with their Beltway neighbors the Nats all year long for the worst staff in baseball. Right now I'll give the nod to Baltimore as the worst. Having to face the lineups of the AL East just compounds the problem. Jim Palmer could probably move from the teams broadcast booth today and claim a rotation spot.
2.Why Bother-Let me get this straight the Os actually put more into Cesar Izturis to start at SS. Then spent some money on Greg Zaun to catch? While I can get behind Ty Wigginton Baltimore wasted what little money they spend this off season.

Fantasy Focus

Brian Roberts-Since there is very little to talk about here. I want to use Roberts as an example of something else. If your reading this chances are you will be looking at some projection for players before our draft. Lets face it, we all do it. But just how accurate are those projections. In my opinion some are much better than others. I really think some are made up without any basis in fact. For the Os Adam Jones may be 10-70-260 OR 25-90-300. Any projections are just educated guesses. But with Brian Roberts you know exactly what you are going to get. Roberts is about a consistent a player as there is in all of baseball. With the lack of quality 2nd baseman guys like Roberts are invaluable.

Fun Fact

Not much so this is a stretch. Baltimore pitchers led the MLB last season with 687 walks. And this season they have a good chance to walk even more hitters.

Outlook

In a word ugly. The Os are the worst team in the AL. If I was in charge of this mess I'd wait until the trading deadline and then trade most of the veterans that can bring me any kind of prospects. As good as Aubrey Huff was last year he should probably be moved. I'd add Melvin Mora to the list. And guys like Ty Wigginton are much more valuable on good teams. I'd then start the rebuilding process with the 2 cornerstones of the Os in the future Matt Weiters and Nick Markakis.

Atlanta Braves-Team Preview

2009-02-20T07:22:00.000-08:00

2008 Team Record-72-90

C-Brian McCann 23-87 - 301

1B-Casey Kotchman 14-74- 272

2B-Kelly Johnson 12-69-287

SS-Yunel Escobar 10-60-288

3B-Chipper Jones 22-75-364

LF-Matt Diaz 2-14-244

CF-Josh Anderson 3-12-294

RF-Jeff Francouer 11-71-239

Rotation

Derek Lowe 14-11-3.24

Javier Vazquez 12-16-4.67

Jair Jurrjins 13-10-3.68

Kenshin Kawakami

Jorge Campillo/Tom Glavine

Bullpen

Mike Gonzalez 0-3-4.28 14

Rafael Soriano 0-1-3.58 3

Peter Moylan 0-1-4.79 1

Whats To Like

1.New Starters-Atlanta long known for starters were awful last season. Frank Wren went out and got Lowe,Vazquez and Kawakami. Just think in the past two seasons they have turned over all 5 starters.
2.Help Is Closer Than You Think-According to Baseball Prospectus 2009 Atlanta has 2 of the top 13 prospects in all of baseball. Tommy Hanson is a pitcher who is probably be in the show this year and Justin Heyward who has been described as a 6ft 4in toolsy outfielder. He is probably 2 years away which may be when Atlanta will be close to contending

Whats Not to Like

1.Can I Please Have Some Relief-The bullpen is a mess. No closer saved more than 15 games and the top 3 guys Gonzalez, Moylan and Soriano all have histories of injury.
2.Power Outage-If you look at the key power positions 1B,LF and RF the Braves have a serious lack of power. Last season the Braves playing in a neutral park hit 33 HRs less than the NL average. And they did nothing to address this need.

Fantasy Focus

Jeff Francouer-As you can see from the above stats for Francouer he was awful last season. The big question will be will the 2009 Francouer be closer to the disappointing 2008 version or the promising 2007? Looking closely at his numbers shows two major problems. Firstly his plate discipline has not developed at all. For every walk he stuck out close to 3 times. At this point in his career that stat should be moving in the other direction. The other disturbing number is only 8% of his fly balls went for homers. This stat is rarely goes backwards for a player still in his mid 20s. My feel is Francouer will be better than last year. Its hard to imagine him being worse. But I don't see him being the player most of us thought he was going to become at the end of the 2007 season.

Fun Fact

The Braves had 9 Starting Pitchers start at least 5 games last season. Think back to the Leo Mazzone days their pitchers never seemed to get hurt.

Outlook

The Braves did a good job vastly improving their starting pitchers. But did nothing to address their needs in the outfield and the bullpen. Oddly enough that was the two places this off season where the most free agent bargains were. So my question would be was it cost efficient to pay Derek Lowe all that money when they could have taken that money and a got a power hitting outfielder and a solid reliever. Lets face it they won't contend this year. Atlanta will improve by a few wins but still finish 4th in the NL East.

Arizona Diamondbacks-Preview

2009-02-16T19:11:00.000-08:00

2008 Record 82-80

Projected Lineup
C-Chris Synder 16-64-237

1B-Chad Tracy 8-39-267

2B-Felipe Lopez 2-25-234

SS-Stephen Drew 21-67-291

3B-Mark Reynolds 28-97-239

LF-Conor Jackson 12-75-300

CF-Chris Young 22-85-248

RF-Justin Upton 15-42-250

Rotation

Brandon Webb 22-7 3.30

Dan Haren 16-8 3.33

Doug Davis 6-8 4.32

Jon Garland 14-8 4.90

Max Scherzer 0-4 3.05

Bullpen Saves

Chad Qualls 4-8 2.51 9

Tony Pena 3-2 4.33 3

Jon Raush 0-6 6.56 1 - these stats just with Arizona

Whats to Like
1.The core of the offense is all young-Young, Drew, Upton, Jackson and Reynolds should all be improving.
2.Webb and Haren are about as good and risk free as any 1-2 in all of baseball.

Whats Not to Like
1.Strikeouts-Arizona was second in the NL in Ks last season. Mark Reynolds fanned 204 times
2.Losing O-Dogg- Orlando Hudson was a stabilizing force both on defense and in the locker room. He will be missed more than they anticipate. After Hudson went down on Aug.10 the D-Backs were a sub .500 team

Fantasy Focus
Conor Jackson-Jackson is eligible for both 1B and OF. While alot of the young Snakes hitters have awful K/BB ratio Jackson walked almost as many times as he struck out. Also his 22% line drive rate makes his .300 BA something we can expect year after year. Also he is still in the growth phase of his career development arc. The only downside is his HR/FB ratio was only 9%. If he can up that by a few points he can have a nice season.

Fun Fact
The Diamondbacks have cost me more sleep than any other team thanks to their very informative and extremely entertaining broadcasts. Darren Sutton and Mark Grace make baseball fun to watch. While not speaking down to knowledgeable fans.

Outlook
I like this team alot. The NL West is the weakest division in the NL by far. While I fully expect Manny to sign with the Dodgers I still think Arizona will be the class of the division. I see about 90 wins and a division title.

Team Previews On The Way

2009-02-15T17:06:00.000-08:00

After speaking with a few of you I've decided on a format for my team previews. The idea is to give important info in a quick compact report. I'll start with the teams projected lineup. rotation and bullpen. Then I'll talk about whats good about the team and then whats not so good about them. Then I'll talk about one player from that team that I like for fantasy purposes. And finally some random thought about them. I hope you enjoy it. Arizona will be up first.

A New Capitol Punisher

2009-02-13T07:07:00.000-08:00

The Nats in need of a pure power hitter signed one of the best getting Adam Dunn for 2 years and about 20 mil. Last season the Nats only hit 117 HRs in what looks like a very good hitters park. With a dreadful pitching staff scoring runs will be critically important if they will have any success whats so ever. Whats a bit complicated is exactly where does Adam Dunn fit in? Popular opinion has the big guy playing everyday at 1st base. Even thought they have the always injured Nick Johnson and Dmitri Young already there it seems Dunn will get the job. I read Jim Bowdin is trying to move Nick Johnson but the interest has been lukeworm at best. Oakland has showed some interest. The Nats outfield is about as crowded and chaotic as The Magic Kingdom on a busy July day. So lets meet the contestants. First we have the talented and very unstable duo of Lastings Milledge and Elijah Dukes. Then we have Josh Willingham who the Nats got very cheaply from Florida. Then we have the duo of talented but underachieving OFs Austin Kearns and Willy Mo Pena. And finally we have Willie Harris. While having depth is a good thing especially if Dukes and or Milledge goes off the deep end this group is a mess. Somehow I can't see Kearns or Pena being happy on the bench. Maybe they can deal Pena for a Starting Pitcher. Getting back to Dunn there is no mystery what the Nats are getting. Dunn hits 40+ homers every year. He also averaged 109 walks a season for the past 3 years. His on base average for the past three years is an outstanding 379. The downside is Dunn has averaged 176 Srikeouts a season. Also Dunn will probably be a below average 1st basemen. Dunn will probably turn into a poor mans Frank Howard. A huge slugger who plays on lousy teams from Washington. If he stays interested for 162 games in that ballpark he could hit 50 HRs.

Do the Math

2009-02-13T06:34:00.000-08:00

Its time to play the always fun game of lets compare players. I picked two players. Who are both 35/36 years old that play left field. Player A is a way below average LF, while player B is about average. The stats I'm using are a average of the past three seasons. So lets compare

HR RBI BA R SB OBA SLG

Player A 26 113 291 89 1 355 491

Player B 17 103 292 107 26 389 459

Pretty Close. If your teams needs a little more power you go with Player A. If you need better defense, more speed and a guy who gets on base more you go with Player B. Anyway you look at it there is not a huge difference between the two players. So what if I told you both guys were free agents this off season. You would probably have expected them to get about the same contract, right? Oh how wrong you would be. If you haven't guessed yet Player A is Rual Ibanez who got 30 mil for 3 years. While Player B is Bobby Abreu who only got 5 mil guaranteed for 1 year. I remember very early this off season when the Phils signed Ibanez I commented that the 10 mil a year is pretty much in line with what his market value is probably worth. But I'm uncomfortable giving him the 10 mil in the year he turns 39. Ibanez has been a proven run producer but a decline has to come soon. Players don't continue to produce at a steady pace reaching their 40th birthday. So the Phils knowing they were going to lose Pat Burrell took steps to fill the hole right away. In the process they way overpaid. To think they guaranteed 25 mil more for Ibanez than Abreu. That extra money may impede them on signing a free agent in the next year or two. Or may not allow them to take on extra payroll at the trading deadline to help the year like they did with Joe Blanton this past year. Hindsight is 20/20 but it made a questionable signing an awful one. So Abreu only gets 1 year for between 5-7 mil. Are you kidding? This guy can still be a very productive player. And he fits in absolutely perfectly with the Angels. The Angels outfielders, Vlade, Torii Hunter, Juan Rivera and Gary Matthews are all right handed. Abreu's being a lefty will balence the lineup. He makes immanent sense replacing Garrett Anderson. While his days of stealing 40 bases are behind him he still is a very good base runner. And we all know Mike Scoascia is one of the most aggressive managers in the AL. If Abreu has a good year he could almost double his salary in 2010. I love this move!!!! With the AL West being so close this keeps the Angels ahead of the pack. And looking down the road only paying him 5 mil gives the Angels payroll room to add a player and the trading deadline to fill in any holes they may have.

Let the Fun Begin

2009-02-11T08:00:00.000-08:00

Our Fantasy Baseball League is up. The league ID is 39768 and the password id dananddev. The draft is scheduled for March 21 @9:00.
Scheduled Managers
1.Mitch
2.Daniel
3.Mike
4.Ray
5.Howie
6.Erik
7.Pat
8.Art
9.Skizzo
10.Steve-Rookie

I think we should keep it at 10. Any thoughts

Please Help!!!!!!

2009-02-09T17:56:00.000-08:00

Starting about March 1st I plan on doing team previews for all 30 teams. I'm reaching out to anyone who reads this and asking you what would you like to see in team previews? There are many magazines on the newsstand. And tons of info online. So if you were to invest 3-5 minutes reading a team preview what form would you like it to take? Stat heavy? Odd facts? Some historical stuff? Let me know!!! PLEASE.

Just In Case You Missed It

2009-02-08T19:37:00.000-08:00

The past week has been marked by alot of players avoiding arbitration and resigning with their current teams. The largest contract going to Ryan Howard. The Phils bought out his remaining arbitration years for a cool 54 mil for 3 years. But during the past week three players changed uniforms. While none of these signings set the baseball world a blaze they are all interesting for one reason or another

Ty Wigginton-Orioles Is there one player who always seems to have great games when you are at the park? Anytime Daniel was at the Trop Wigginton always did well. If he stayed in Tampa and gave him season tickets Wigginton would be making 10 mil a year. But anyway Wigginton signing with Baltimore is a bit odd. There really is no regular place for him to play. Defensively he plays about the same positions as Aubrey Huff who was fantastic last year. Ideally you platoon Wigginton at third base but both he and Melvin Mora are righties. Other options are have him getting ABs against lefties and benching Luke Scott in left. Or have him DH. In the end Wigginton probably gets about 400 ABs playing various positions. To me in a perfect world he would be much better suited to be a part time player on a better team.

Tom Gordan-Diamondbacks-Gordan joins Chad Quallis, Jon Rauch and Tony Pena at the back end of the Arizona pen. If Gordan is healthy he adds another arm, if not there is not much lost. The only problem I see is all four of the above pitchers are all right handed. It should be very interesting to see how Bob Melvin manges the end of games. This situation lends itself to playing the hot hand. The NL West should be very close and any little improvements may lead to winning the division. All I know is I'll probably be up way too late watching them listening to my favorite broadcaster Mark Grace.

Andruw Jones-Rangers-This move surprised me. While Jones is costing Texas next to nothing it seemed Texas was looking to have youth in their outfield. Assuming Jones is somewhere between the guy who hit 51HRs and the guy who hit 158 he would be their CF. If thats the case Josh Hamilton then probably gets moved to right. And Nelson Cruz who they seemed to like the RF either goes to left and competes with David Murphy or goes to DH. In addition the Rangers also have Marlon Byrd in the outfield. And the DH position will probably be manned by Hank Blalock and Frank Catalanotto. Anyway you look at it they have no shortage of bats. Jone's main value may come in if he can give them gold glove quality play in center. Thus cutting down the amount of runs a very questionable Texas staff gives up. As an FYI while I can handle most D-Backs questions any Rangers questions I'll defer to Mike who knows alot more about them than I do.

Its Greek To Me

2009-02-06T17:29:00.000-08:00

Back in the early days of sabermetrics we found out you can very accurately predict a team won-loss record by knowing how many runs a team scores and gives up. This is called the Pythagorean Formula. Over the years this formula has proved to be very accurate. Of the 30 teams last year only 5 teams were more or less than 5 games from their predicted result. It has also been proven that in virtually all cases a team that gets alot more wins than their Pythagoreean formula ultimately regresses. While teams that have less wins end up winning more games the next year. So who are those 5 teams.

Teams that Should Improve
1.Toronto Blue Jays -7
2.Seattle Mariners-6
3,Atlanta Braves -6

Pythagorean does not account for free agent defections and injuries. With that said I don't see Toronto improving. But I see the other two improving by more than six wins each

Teams that Should Take a Step Back
1.Los Angeles Angels+12
2.Houston Astros +9

I think the Angels can drop 10-15 games this season. And I also think the Astros back track.

The reason why I introduced this is I saw a interesting article that used Pythagorean to predict the 2009 season. What they did was estamate playing time for the players that are now on each team and had a computer estamate the amount of runs scored and runs allowed. As the article said signing a Manny, Adam Dunn or Bobby Abreu can significantly alter the results. But here on a chilly Florida night its fun to see what we got.

AL East
1.Tampa Bay Rays 95 67
1.NY Yankees 95 67
3.Boston Red Sox 93 69
4.Toronto Blue Jays 82 80
5.Baltimore Orioles 73 89

AL Central
1.Minnesota Twins 90 72
2.Cleveland Indians 86 76
3.Detroit Tigers 84 78
4.Chicago White Sox 78 84
5.Kansas City Royals 73 89

AL West
1.LA Angels 92 70
2.Oakland As 84 78
3.Texas Rangers 78 84
4.Seattle Mariners 74 88

NL East
1.Philadelphia Phillies 96 66
2.NY Mets 92 70
3.Atlanta Braves 86 76
4.Florida Marlins 83 79
5.Washington Nats 66 96

NL Central
1.Chicago Cubs 95 67
2.Milwaukee Brewers 88 74
3.St. Louis Cards 85 77
4.Houston Astros 83 79
5.Cincinnati Reds 74 88
6.Pittsburg Pirates 70 92

NL West
1.LA Dodgers 88 74
2.Arizona D-Backs 84 78
3.Colorado Rockies 82 80
4.SF Giants 78 84
5.SD Padres 68 94

Just something to think about. As of now its pretty close I think.

First 3 Rounds

2009-02-05T11:25:00.000-08:00

With only about 1 week away from pitchers and catchers the mock draft season is starting to heat up. Yahoo had a mock draft and the following was the top 3 rounds. By the way it was for a 12 team standard 5x5 league

Round 1
1.Hanley Ramirez
2.Alex Rodriguez
3.Albert Pujols
4.Jose Reyes
5.David Wright
6.Ryan Bruan
7.Grady Sizemore
8.Josh Hamilton
9.Miguel Cabrera
10.Ian Kinsler
11.Jimmy Rollins
12.Mark Teixeira

Round 2
13.Tim Lincecum
14.Ryan Howard
15.Chase Utley
16.Evan Longoria
17.BJ Upton
18.Johan Santana
19.Prince Fielder
20.Carlos Beltran
21.Manny Ramirez
22.Lance Berkman
23.Dustin Pedroia
24.Carlos Lee

Round 3
25.Ichiro Suzuki
26.Alfonso Soriano
27.Matt Holliday
28.Justin Mourneau
29.Carlos Quentin
30.Brandon Phillips
31.CC Sabathia
32.Brian Roberts
33.Carl Crawford
34.Jason Bay
35.Aramis Ramirez
36.Nick Markakis

Ollie Stays Put

2009-02-02T20:41:00.000-08:00

Oliver Perez resigned with the Mets today for 36 mil over 3 years. The bottom line is the Mets are a better with him than without him. The lenght of the contract and the money is a fair deal for both sides. The Mets rotation is now Johan, Maine, Perez, Pelfrey and either Redding, Garcia or Niese. Overall its not bad. But after Johan their are questions about everyone else. As for Perez he is inconsistent. Saying Perez is inconsistent is like saying Shakespeare can write. Perez has terrific stuff. And any 27 year old lefty who can throw 90 will garner interest. So lets look objectively at Perez. The good is he is capable of throwing unhittable stuff at any time. When he is on few lefties are better. But his main problem is twofold. Last season he averaged close to 5 walks a game. That figure makes it very difficult to be a consistent winner. But even looking past the 5 walks Perez tends to be wild in the strike zone. When he gets behind too often he'll throw a pitch with terrible location which turns into a longball. Which brings us to Perez's second problem. Ollie is a flyball pitcher and when he makes mistakes they tend to cost him runs. Less walks and better control can turn him in a allstar. An interesting thing to look for early in the season will be how will Citi Field play? If its like Shea and is a pitchers park Ollie will be more valuable but if the ball carries it could spell trouble.

How Do You Spell Releif Part 3

2009-02-01T07:03:00.000-08:00

Over the past two blog entries I have talked about relief pitching. The first essay told of my disgust how bullpens are managed today. And in part 2 I went over a quick history of bullpen usage in MLB. This morning in the final part of this series I want to compare usage levels of todays best with yesterdays best and make a final plea to reason.

I have two main gripes with bullpen usage now. The first is how much these guys are used. Simply put closers today are babied. While I'm certain teams will tell you since these guys are now highly paid we need to carefully manage their workload. So my question to those guys is does only having your best relieve pitcher pitch 1 inning 3 to 4 times a week prevent injury? While I'm no doctor I can say with virtual certainty teams are not preventing injury to closers with such limited work loads. Over the past few seasons we've seen injuries to closers with very carefully manged workloads like Billy Wagner, Trevor Hoffman and Brad Lidge. If you go back into history and go to what I call the Golden Age of Relievers those guys pitched much more and most of the successful ones had long careers. The injury rate of relievers in the 70s did not seem to be any worse than today. So if you throw out the injury argument why are those guys only facing 3-4 hitters per game? Yesterday I had some free time and decided to do a little experiment. I choose 5 of the most successful closers of the last 5 years, Mariano Rivera, Francisco Rodriguez, Johnathan Papelbon, Joe Nathan and Jose Valverde. I looked at the average number of batters they faced per appearance. I took numbers for the last 5 years(3 for Papelbon and 4 for Jenks). And then I did the same thing for 5 closers of the golder era. For these guys I picked the 5 year period they were most effective(they had to be 5 consecutive seasons). The 5 guys I selected were Bruce Sutter, Goose Gossage, Dan Quizenberry, Rollie Fingers and Mike Marshall.

Today Average Batters Faced Per Appearance

M. Rivera 4.30

K-Rod 4.46

J. Pabelbon 3.94

J. Nathan 3.92

B. Jenks 4.45

It does not take a genius to figure out that if you are averaging about 4 batters faced per outing you are probably getting 3 outs and allowing 1 baserunner. Which makes sense because these guys WHIPs are around 1

Golden Age

B. Sutter 6.59

G. Goosage 7.02

D. Quizenberry 6.99

R. Fingers 6.65

M. Marshall 7.93

Looking at the above chart shows are very large difference. Also think about the 3 under 7 Sutter, Fingers and especially Quiz were EXTREME groundball pitchers who probably threw alot of double play balls which would suppress the batters faced per appearance a bit. As a group the above averaged facing 7.10 batters per appearance while todays closers faced 4.21. Their average appearance is 41% shorter than the 70s group. The 3 extra batters translates into 1 inning when a team does not have to use a middle of the road reliever. And if a team like the Red Sox have a key part of the game in the 6th or 7th they can bring in J-Pap to preserve the lead or not let the game get away. Let him go 2 or 3 and then they can have Manny Delcarmen finish or Francona can play matchups. If they are up by 2 or 3 runs at that point the chances of surrendering the lead is minute. Make Sense.

The other area that I find illogical is when to use your best bullpen weapon. Only bringing closers in the 9th if your up by 1-3 runs is great if they are on your fantasy team but makes no sense in real life. Like I said earlier the idea should be to win games NOT get your closers saves. Teams can win or lose games during all 9 innings not just the 9th. While planning ahead an inning or two is critical in baseball. Recognizing the key point in a game is also critical. If a manager botches innings 6-8 the closer becomes a non-factor in the 9th. If your closer is really your best reliever shouldn't he be in during the most important parts of the game? Knowing that each game is different. This crap that its important for all members of the bullpen to know exactly what their role is garbage to me. These guys are all highly skilled very competitive people or they wouldn't by Major Leaguers. Their job is simply to get hitters out whether its the 2nd, 5th, 7th or 9th inning. Teams are missing the boat/ Think about this. If you owned a business and had to send one of your salesman out on a critical sales call that can mean big bucks who are you going to send? I would think your best salesperson. Another smaller example is when I write the schedule for the store its no accident my best employees get the most hours while my worst employees get the least amount of hours. Bullpens should be the same way. Out of 30 teams last season only 6 had their save leader throw the most innings. And oddly enough two of those six teams leaders were guys that lost the closers role at some point in the season.

So thats my case. I'm sure its more than most of you have ever thought of managing the bullpen. So can things change? Sure. But we will need one team to rip up the "book" and try something different. You just do things the way they used to be done when it was done correctly. Younger fans who don't know any better and older broadcasters know don't know any better will yell and scream. All it takes is one team. But if there is something we all know about baseball is it does not like change.

This 3 part series was aimed at making everybody think a little. I really hoped you enjoyed it. Comments are very much looked foward to.

How Do You Spell Relief Part 2

2009-01-31T06:21:00.000-08:00

Yesterday I wrote about my frustration regarding the way teams use their bullpens in 2009. I won't be redundant except to say I firmly believe teams lose games every year because of irrational use of relief pitchers. So how did we get to this point of insanity? Like any good student of history can tell you we can't know where we are going until we know where we've been. I took some time yesterday reviewing the saves leaders from 1900 to the present. I'm going to break it down into 5 eras. I'll talk about bullpen usage in that era and quote some numbers you might find interesting.

1900-1925-This is the era where starting pitchers were expected to finish what they started. If the starter did not go the distance there was a problem. There were a couple of reasons for this. 1.Rosters were much smaller-the typical team only carried less players than they do today 2.Since teams had less players the relievers were either starters who did not start that day or if the team was way behind they used the guys who were not good enough to start. There was no rotation like we know today.3.Also pitchers in the early 20th century as a rule were much better hitters than later. Most pitchers were as good hitters as the 2 or 3 bench players teams used. So for the above reason saves were relatively rare events. 4.The term pitch count was unheard of for another 80 years. How come I can't imagine John McGraw going out to Christy Mathewson and saying your pitch count is up to 120 its time to come out. Among the league leaders in saves during this era were HOFers Ed Walsh, 3 Finger Brown, Cy Young and Iron Joe McGinnity who led the league 3 times. I went through each decade and figured out the average amount of saves the league leader had.

1900-09 4.5 Frank Arellanes 8

1910-19 7.1 Chief Bender and Three Finger Brown 13 As a foot note when both of these pitchers saved 13 games they each won 21 the same season.

1925-1949-While starting pitchers were still expected to pitch complete games the idea of relieve pitchers was starting to take shape. HOF pitchers only led the league in saves twice after 1931. Carl Hubbell in 1934 with 8 and Dizzy Dean in 1936 with 11. A few interesting things jump out during that era 1.In the 12 year period between 1923-34 the Washington Senators had the league leader in saves 9 years. Firpo Mayberry 5x, Jack Russell 2x, Alan Russell 1x and Garland Braxton once. None of the above pitchers are household names. During this period the Senators only won one pennant in 1924 and were mediocre for the rest of the time. Also oddly enough over the 12 years they had 4 managers. I'd love to know who in the Senator organization had this idea. Also during this period we see the first Yankee relief star, Johnny Murphy.From 1938-42 Murphy led the AL in saves 4 out of 5 years. While he must have had more opportunities than any one else its telling the best team in baseball decided to devote someone full time to finish games. With that said his saves totals for those 4 years were 11,19,15 and 11. Hardly eye popping numbers today.

1920-29 8.0 Firpo Mayberry 22

1930-39 10.2 Johnny Murphy 19

1940-49 13.5 Joe Page 27

1950-1975-This is the era when we started to see every team see the value of having 1 or 2 relieve specialists. By the 60s these guys were very valued members of the team. Above you see Joe Page has 27 saves for the Yankeees in 1949 but I carefully chose 1950 to start this era because in 1950 Jim Konstanty of the Whiz Kids Phillies had the best year of any releiver in history up to that point. Konstanty won MVP for his work in the pennant winning year. He won 16 games, saved 22 and finished an amazing 62 games. His season must have revolutionized baseball. During this era some specialists especially in the NL started popping up like Al Brazie of the Cards, Clem Labine of the Dodgers, Roy Face of the Pirates and Phil Regan of the Cubs. All these guys led the NL in saves twice. What I found a bit odd is no pitcher during the 60s in the AL led the league in saves more than once. But as we reached the end of this era you needed over 30 saves to lead the league. As John Hiller had 38 for the Tigers in 1973 and Sparky Lyle had 35 in 1972 for the Yankees.

1950-59 17.8 Ellis Kinder 27

1960-69 25.5 Ron Perranowski 31

1970-79 30.6 John Hiller 38

1975-1990-To me this is the golden age of relievers. While guys did not rack up 50 save seasons they were used correctly. Remember the concept of fireman. Your best relieve pitcher comes in to "put out a fire" Think back to the 70s. The Yankees never waited until the 9th inning to put in Sparky Lyle. Goose Gossage did not become a 3 out pitchers until the 90s. It was nothing for guys like Lyle, Sutter, Gossage, McGraw,Fingers and Quizenberry to pitch 2 or 3 innings. That was the norm not the exception. These guys were used MUCH more effectively than today. Managers did not manage by who would be in the game in a save situation. They managed with 1 over laying thought which was how can I best win this game. And the theory that relief pitchers should not throw too many innings is proven false as many firemen from the 70s had very long careers. Some pitching into their 40s. For those of us older than 20 think back to your childhood can you imagine managers not using their best in a tie game. The thought would be absurd. Mike Marshall in LA used to come in at all points late in the game. And I can remember whoever was managing the Mets never waited until the 9th to bring in Tug McGraw.

1980-89 37.4 Dan Qizenberry and Dennis Eckersley 45

1990-Present-While I can't be certain I believe Tony LaRussa is to blame for the current state of relievers. I think he turned Dennis Eckersley from a fireman to a closer. And like most ideas that seem good at the time they tend to get perverted over time. Eckersley was successful as a closer. But he also would have been successful if he was used like the firemen of the 70s. Eck was just lights out. By the way oddly enough thought the 80s no AL pitcher lead the league in saves more than once. In part 3 I'll talk alot more about where we are now. But rest assured somewhere between 1989 and now things have gone horrible wrong. Save numbers are up. But logic, common sense and good baseball are down.

1990-89 44.0 Bobby Thigpen 57

2000-08 46.3 Francisco Rodriguez 62

How Do You Spell Relief Part 1

2009-01-30T15:09:00.000-08:00

How often has this happened to you? Your watching a game and a manger does something that you just don't get. If you are like me you swear at the TV and wish once and for all they would start to manager with logic instead of blindly following "the book". This happens to me with the way teams manage their bullpen more than any other phase of the game. If you think logically about it the current use of bullpens defy logic. Just so we are all on the same page let me show you what I'm talking about. Every team has a closer. This guy is suppose to be the teams best relief pitcher. BUT you only bring him in if you are ahead in the 9th inning by 1-3 runs. Think about this this valuable commodities role is defined by a statistic!!! And now things are getting even worse. Its not bad enough where you have a closer now we need a setup man to only pitch the 8th. It makes me want to scream!!! Here is a hypothitical scenario. The Mets are playing Philadelphia. they are winning 4-3 in the 6th. The Phils have 1 out and the bases loaded. John Maine the starter has run out of gas. Jerry Manual sees Chase Utley and Ryan Howard coming up. So what does he do? He brings in Pedro Feliciano to pitch to the lefties right. But does this make any sense? Feliciano is either the 3rd or 4th best reliever the Mets have. In this situation with the game on the line WHY should the Mets bring in anything but thier best. If I'm Manual I'm bringing in K-Rod right there and then. I want my best trying to preserve the lead. Not my third best. When K-Rod gets Utley and Howard out he could go one more inning then give the ball to Putz. In other words the most critical part of most games does not happen in the ninth inning. It occurs at some point leading up to the ninth. This point can not be overstated. Baseball is a game of 9 innings all of them having the same value. You don't get extra runs by scoring in the 9th. Many more games are lost in the 6th, 7th and 8th by manger being stubborn than are saved in the 9th by saving their best to only get the last three outs How critical is it to save your best to only get 3 outs when your up by 2 or 3. It drives me nuts why managers won't put in their best guy if the score is tied. Though I did see it every now and then last year. Most teams would rather put in option 3 or 4 in a tied game. I firmly believe ALL teams lose games every year by screwing up how to properly use the pen. I don't know who was the genius who created the closer role but they did smart baseball a huge disservice. In addition whats absolutely drives me nuts is EVERY team does this more or less. God Bless Joe Madden for how he used he Rays relievers after Percival got injured. He probably did the best job or any manger last year handling his pen. Also kudos to Terry Francona for letting Johnathan Papelbon pitch in the 8th inning. So how did we get to this point of madness and where are we going? Thats what the next two entries in this series will be about. Part 2 will be a history of bullpen uses. And part 3 will be a look at bullpen usage in 2009. As usual comments are welcomed more than you know.

Garland to D-Backs

2009-01-28T20:35:00.000-08:00

Jon Garland signed a 1 year deal for over 6 mil to pitch for Arizona. First things first. I don't like Jon Garland. Its nothing personal I'm sure he's a nice guy. Its the kind of pitcher Garland is that I don't like. That is the soft tossing hurler who doesn't strike out many hitters. The margin for error for guys like Garland is much smaller than guys who strikeout alot of hitters. Garland can be a poster child for why as a fan you can't trust win-loss record as a way be evaluate pitchers. Since 2002 Garland has a record of 96-74. Pretty good huh? Now lets look a little deeper. In the past three years he is only 56/98 in quality starts for a very average 57%. In 7 out of the past 8 years his ERA was over 4.22. For his career he only had 1 season when his WHIP was under 1.3. Statistical studies have consistently showed if you don't average 5 Ks per 9 innings its very tough to win on a consistent basis. In my humble opinion he has let a charmed life who may not be able to continue his winning ways. For the D-Backs to invest 6 million dollars they must have really wanted him. My knowledge of Arizona is probably better than it should be. I admit I stayed up way past my bed time watching them so I can hear Mark Grace announce games. As of today Arizona is as good as any one in the worst division in baseball. Webb and Haren are fantastic. Doug Davis is solid when cancer free. The back of the rotation with Max Scherzer and Yusmeiro Petit are talented but questionable. So I can see why Josh Byrnes wanted to get Garland. I don't think its a great move but its understandable. The key to Arizona season will be how their young hitters mature. If the combination of Justin Upton, Stephen Drew, Connor Jackson and Mark Reynolds hit like they are capable they should contend Jon Garland or not.

Player For Sale-CHEAP

2009-01-26T19:12:00.000-08:00

When John Steinbeck wrote the Winter of Discontent he did not have baseball in mind. But the way this winter is playing out he might as well. With about three weeks until pitchers and catchers there are still a lot of quality free agents still unsigned. Except for the collusion years baseball has seen nothing like this. I remember early in this off season when some baseball people said the sluggish economy will not effect baseball. Well they could not have been more wrong. While the Yankees spend huge dollars the rest of the league has scaled back spending. Except for the long term contracts given to young players buying out arbitration years like the one given to Zack Grienke today veterans are finding the free agent waters very disappointing. I'm certain players will begin to sign in mass in the next week or so. But since really nothing has happened what I thought I'd do is list one player from each position and a couple of pitchers and give them to the club that makes the most sense. THESE ARE NOT PREDICTIONS ON WHERE I THINK THEY ARE GOING!!!!!!!!!! Only a fun little exercise on if it was a perfect world. And as we all know the world is rarely perfect.

C-Jason Veritek-This is easy. Veritek belongs on the Red Sox. He is the heart and soul of that team. Even though he only hit 220 last year he is more valuable to them than any other team. I'd be stunned if he ends up anywhere else.

1B-Kevin Millar-Millar belongs with the Angels. With Tex in New York Kendry Morales is the starter. Millar would give the Angels depth if Morales does not produce. Millar is also a great locker room guy.

2B-Orlando Hudson-O-Dog belongs on the Mets. I know the problems about no one wanting to take Castillo's contract but the Mets are in a position where they should not have to worry about a extra couple of million in payroll. Either release Castillo or keep him for pinch running or depth. Hudson saves runs on D and like Millar is a great clubhouse guy. Something the Mets really need.

SS-Orlando Cabrera-Cabrera goes to the Reds. If we learned anything from 2008 if you have very good starting pitching and good defense improvements are possible. The Reds have Volquez, Cueto, Harang, Arroyo and Bailey. Also a young lineup. Cabrera would plug up their biggest hole.

3B-Joe Crede-I'm sending Crede to Minnesota. The Twins have no real 3rd baseman. Last year they got by with a mix and match of Buscher, Lamb and Harris. Crede would add power and if he still is not healthy at least the Twins can go back to the trio I mentioned.

OF-Manny Ramirez-This one is also easy. Manny belongs with the Dodgers. While LA has some excellent young pitching the offense is not very threatening without Manny. With Manny the Dodgers are probably the favorites in the NL West. Besides doesn't Manny belong in LA??

OF-Adam Dunn-Dunn goes to the Nats. Washington only hit 117 HRs last year. And Nats park looks to be a good hitters park. Dunn will hit his usual 40 and probably more.

OF-Bobby Abreu-Abreu goes to the Giants. With the improvements the Giants have made all they need is more offense to compete. Since Manny's staying in LA Abreu is the best plan B. With that rotation and a little more run scoring contention is not that far fetched.

SP-Oliver Perez-The Mets need him. Signing Freddie Garcia and Tim Redding does nothing to solve the Mets need for a front line starter. Perez is Jekyll and Hyde and I don't think the Mets should go beyond 3 years but unfortunately if they are going to contend they need to upgrade the starting rotation

SP-Ben Sheets-Sheets goes to Texas. The Rangers had the worst staff in baseball. The team president Nolan Ryan is probably the teams best pitcher now. They could afford to take a risk with Sheet's health because they have nothing better. Besides Sheets is from Texas and we've seen this off season how that has affected players decisions.

By the way for any new readers WELCOME!!!!!!!! I hope you enjoy the blog. I can't stress enough how much I love comments from people. So I urge you guys to comment on anything you need.

So Long Jeff

2009-01-23T15:16:00.000-08:00

With a total lack of interesting things going on on the Hot Stove I figured I spend some time reviewing the career of recently retired 2nd baseman Jeff Kent. Like I said in the past when I grow up I'd love to be a baseball historian. I'm sure every era in baseball history had players like Kent that will be appreciated more throught the prism of history than when they played. Kent was never a favorite with the press because he never said very much. Also playing on the west coast for most of his career probably hurt his national exposure. To me the most striking stat of his was Kent hit 351HRs in his career. Thats a full 74 more than the second place player at his position, Ryne Sandberg. I don't have stats in front of me but I don't know if any other player has hit 20% more dingers than anyone else at his position. Kent drove in over 1500 runs averaging over 100 RBIs over 162 games. He made the All Star team 5 times and captured the 2000 MVP. In addition something to think about is Kent played almost his entire career in very difficult hitting parks, AT&T, Shea and Dodger Stadiums. Baseball Reference lists a players top comp and oddly enough between age 30-33 Kent's top comp every year was Joe Gordan the recently voted in HOF. His detractors will point to his below average defense at 2nd. Thats fair. And all his big years were a direct product of hitting after Barry Bonds. The bottom line is even if he saw alot of pitches to hit he had to hit them. I could honestly say watching him all those years I never thought he was HOF material. But the body of work may say otherwise. Definitely not a first ballot but maybe down the road. So where does he rank with the all time second baseman here is my list of the top 10 second baseman ever

1.Rogers Hornsby-The guy averaged over 400 over 5 years.

2.Joe Morgan-Best 2nd baseman I ever saw. Did it all. Pompous announcer

3.Eddie Collins-Cornerstone of $100,000 infield of A's dynasty of 1911-14 And NOT one of the dirty Black Sox

4.Nap Lajoie-338 career average. At the turn of the century the Indians were called the Naps after him.

5.Jackie Robinson-His career numbers would have been even better if he was given the chance earlier.

6.Rod Carew-A 328 career hitter with 7 career batting titles. Not a great fielder but he sure could hit.

7.Ryne Sandberg-Known for his bat but earned 9 Gold Gloves. He even stole over 50 bases one year

8.Charlie Gehringer-Part of the G-Men with the Tigers in the 30s with Hank Greenberg and Goose Goslin. Think Killer B's with Gehringer being much better than Biggio.

9.Fankie Frisch-Player/Manager of the Gas House Gang Cards of 1934. Played on 8 Pennant Winners

10.Roberto Alomar/Joe Gordan/Bobby Doerr/Jeff Kent-I know its cheating. Take your pick.

I believe Chase Utley has a very good shot at this list if he stays healthy.

As always your thoughts and comments are not only welcomed they are STRONGLY encouraged.

Do You Feel Lucky???

2009-01-19T19:30:00.000-08:00

The Hot Stove League these last few days have been as cold as a Florida night(stop laughing people from New York. All I know is I was chilly walking around EPCOT the other night). About the only pieces of news have been contract extensions and the World Baseball Classic. Two totally different topics, right? No wrong. Both topics are all about risk. Lets take contract extensions first. I don't know who or when started the trend of giving players who are not eligible for arbitration or free agency long term deals. Since the average raise in arbitration is 120% it makes sense to buy those years out. And recently teams are buying out the first couple of years of free agency. We saw this in the past week with Kevin Youkliss and Nick Markakis. The players make more in those first couple of years and have financial stability in case of injury or if something goes wrong. And the teams get players for below market value in the back part of their deals. The Mets deal with Jose Reyes and David Wright was a fantastic deal. The Rays really took a chance when they signed Evan Longoria to one of these kind of deals after only 1 week in the bigs. For hitters with a stable personality and a history of durability these contracts are truly a win-win situation. Teams can actually keep the key young players together. About the only losers are free agents who are looking for a huge payday. If Kevin Youkliss is averaging about 10 mil per. Guys like Bobby Abreu and Adam Dunn may now have to settle for 1 year contracts. Its no accident most of these deals are given to hitters. The Phils signed Cole Hamels to a 3 year deal for about 20.5 mil. They bought out his arbitration years. The Phils were smart only going 3 years. Pitchers in general get injured. Its very rare for pitchers not to go on the DL in a three year span. Also in a young pitcher we have found out its critically important for long term success to limit the amount of innings a young pitcher throws. So lets take Hamels as an example. He already has spent time on the DL 2 out of the past 3 years. So while it makes sense to give Markakis six years you'd NEVER give 6 years to a pitcher. For those of us old enough remember Doc Gooden in 1984-5. He looked like they would have to built him his own wing in Cooperstown. But alas things happen.

Now lets talk about the WBC. As a fan I like the idea of the WBC. Seeing meaningful baseball in March is better than watching 3rd stringers for the Braves and Astros battle it out. But if I was a GM it might be another story. If I'm Omar Minaya I'd give my blessing if David Wright wants to play for the US or If Jose Reyes wants to play for the DR. Those players will get their ABs one place or another. I'd just make sure they are not over aggressive. Now if Johan Santana was totally healthy I'd still tell him no way. If I had any starting pitcher I'd never let him participate. I'd be skeptical for relievers but I would not forbid it. Mike and I totally agree that Scott Kazmir pitching for the US is doing both himself and the Rays a disservice. During the course of an important WBC game its not hard to imagine a pitcher over throwing and injuring himself. Then what???? Its definitely not worth it for MLB teams. See like long term deals to pitchers its got to be about minimizing risks to your pitchers. And as we've seen this off season starting pitching is still VERY expensive.

As a last note about the WBC I'd love to see an infield for the DR that has Pujols at first, Reyes at 2nd, Han Ram at short and A-Rod at 3rd. That would be fun.

Read This

2009-01-16T04:32:00.000-08:00

I like to read, Thats no secret to anyone. My favorites are political thrillers, biographies and baseball books(are you stunned). The problem is most baseball books are like frozen pizza, mildly satisfying when your going through it but forgotten about five minutes after your done. But every once in awhile I read something really good. I just finished something that was really good which I'll talk about later. So an idea popped in my head as a public service I'll list 10 of my favorite baseball books. This way if anyone either gets any time or makes anytime they will know what to get. They will be listed alphabetically by the authors last name. So without further ado here is my version of the New York Times Book Review.

1.Eight Men Out-Eliot Asinof (1963)-If your reading this your probably familiar with the story of the 1919 Black Sox. Hollywood made a movie based on the book and actually did a nice job. As they stayed pretty close to the facts. But what truly separates the book is the details. Its impossible to get everything into a two hour movie. Reading this you get a good sense of who these 8 guys were as both players and people. You talk about a fractured clubhouse, these guys made the Bronx Zoo Yankees seem like a love in. Most of all you come to meet Shoeless Joe Jackson. Not as DB Sweeney or Ray Liotta but the real man. And at the end of the day Joe was an illiterate, ignorant guy who did not want to upset the players in the clique he was a part of, led by southerners Chick Gandil and Swede Risberg. We will never know if Shoeless Joe played 100% of not. We know he did take the money and then tried to return it and was talked out of it. As I type this another interesting part of the book was how justice in Chicago was proved to be an illusive thing. Well with current events with the Illinois Governor it seems the more things change the more they stay the same.

2.The Long Season-Jim Brosnan(1960)-Brosnan was a average, nondescript pitcher for the Cincinnati Reds in the late 50s and early 60s. Someone no one would know about 40 years later except he wrote 2 fantastic books, The Pennant Race and The Long Season. To my knowledge The Long Season was the first honest book that was taken from a diary. And to this day I'd sat it is still the best. Ball Four was written about 10 years later but probably would not have been published if it weren't for Brosnan's books. What make this book so good is it does a fantastic job making you see what it is really like to be a major league baseball player. Both the good and the not so good. Through the diary entries to go thro
ught slumps, disagreements with managers and coaches, crisis's of confidences, missing of family and trying to keep sane in the bullpen through the 154 game season. The book was not ghost written. And I'd be willing to bet even with all the money now in baseball the experience of being a player and going through the season in probably very similar. And reading this book is about as close as we will come to it.

3.Real Grass, Real Hereos-Dom DiMaggio(1980)-DiMaggio's book centers around baseball in that magical year of 1941. That was the incredible season when Joe DiMaggio had his 56 games hitting streak, Ted Williams hit .406 and the World Series had the famous Mickey Owen dropped third strike game. All this was occurring with the international situation as it was called in the day was going on(World War 2). Dom had a unique perspective on the years events as he played next to Ted Williams and obviously was Joe DiMaggio's brother. But while Dom talks about these events in some detail the best part about this book is his description of what baseball was like for both fans and players in 1941. The talks about how he believes travel by train helped team unity. His stories about road trips were very entertaining. He talks about the advent of night baseball. And the sameness in other words how you know who was playing where because players did not move around nearly as much as today. Also it was always the same cities. For the fans he talks about how radio was king and you could walk the streets in Brooklyn and hear the game on radio and not miss a pitch going from house to house. DiMaggio made it seem that the game is essentially the same but the players of that era enjoyed playing Major League baseball alot more than the players of today.

4.Bill James Historical Abstract-Bill James(2001)-Bill James is the father of modern sabermterics. I truly believe Bill James belongs in the Hall of Fame. The argument can be made he has done more to change the way baseball than other who was not officially connected to baseball with the probable exception of Marvin Miller. James taught us how to evaluate stats logically. And know the batting average is not the end all be all stat. But what I love about the Historical Abstract is not so much the stat head part of it. The first section takes each decade and gives it a decade in a box, He has great lists like the best offensive, worst uniforms, best baseball book and movie that should be made. It goes on and on. The lists are alot of fun to look at. Then he gives a very detailed essay on how the game was played during each decade. The second part of the book takes each position and ranks the players all time in that position. And he gives a detailed description of each player's accomplishments. While this section is a little stat heavy it is VERY readable. One thing about Bill James he is a very good writer. The above description really fails to do it justice. Simply put if I was stuck on a desert island and only had one book to have this would be that book. An all time classic. Anyone the least bit interested in baseball history should get in ASAP.

5.The Boys of Summer-Roger Kahn(1972)-One of baseball's all time classic books. Kahn a native New Yorker went back and interviewed the remaining living members of the Boys of Summer and came out with this amazing book. The names of the players on those teams are legendary. Start with HOFs Pee Wee Reese, Duke Snider and of course Jackie Robinson. And a supporting cast that included guys like Carl Furillo, Gil Hodges and Don Newcombe. New York in the 50s was the time of Willie, Mickey and the Duke. Reading this you got the impression that the current Met-Yankee rivalry was nothing compared to these three teams. Who you rooted for defined you. I loved how Kahn talks about how much baseball meant to the people of New York in the post WW 2 era. As for Dodgers these incredible players were just guys who lived in the neighborhood. Players who would barbecue with neighbors. I'd be willing to bet never in the history of baseball has a team been more interwoven and important to a community than the Dodgers to Brooklyn. Like 8 Men Out what I also loved about this book is you get to know the players as people. In an era now when we put players on a pedestal it is refreshing to read about these average guys who just happened to be great players but were not the least bit spoiled . They really seemed to get along with each other also. Think of how easy it would have been to have attitudes on that team but there were none. The best book I've ever read about one team and one time period.

6.Moneyball-Michael Lewis(2003)-This is the very controversial book that deals with Billy Beane and the economics of baseball. Lewis is not a sports writer, he is a business writer. So he takes a different approach than most sports writers. His basic question was this, why do the Oakland As with one of the smallest payrolls in baseball consistently have teams in contention. With that basic premise he spend a season with Billy Beane. Most of you know I'm a big Billy Beane fan(even though he traded my guy Rich Harden). What Lewis found was that Beane and his chief assistants JP Riccardi(now GM of the Blue Jays) and Paul DePodesta used statistics much more than tradional subjective scouting reports. Beane is much more interested in what a player has done and not what he looks like or what a scout might think he might do. The now famous Moneyball draft produced Nick Swisher and Joe Blanton for the As. Beane says to survive and compete he needs to find the things that the market undervalues that help you win games. For a very long time the thing was On Base Average. Now everyone is familiar with OBA. The portrayal of Beane is very interesting. He is an ultra competitive kind of guy. His success using sabermetrics has spawned a whole new movement in baseball to hire young GMs that are good at interpreting stats. Not former players or managers. Other than Beane and Riccardi two of the best GMs in the game Theo Epstein of the Red Sox and Andrew Freidman of the Rays come from this school. While some out there still are not on board with this new way of looking at how to run a franchise the results are clear. A great read for anyone interested in what its like to be a GM.

7.Crazy 08-Cait Murphy(2007)-This was the best baseball book I read last year. Murphy like Michael Lewis is not a baseball writer. As a life time baseball fan she wanted to write a baseball book and her grandfather keep telling her that the 1908 season would make a great topic. The 08 season was the season that featured Merkle's boner. Murphy does an amazing job taking you back to 1908 and putting you right in the middle of probably the wildest pennant race ever between the New York Giants and Chicago Cubs. You have to shake your head as you read it so say I can't believe this really happened!! Baseball at the turn of the century truly was a different game played by some truly different people. No TV, no radio. only John McGraw of the Giants and Frank Chance of the Cubs doing about anything to beat each other legal or otherwise. One interesting thing Murphy does is every couple of chapters she writes about something going on in pop culture at the time so you really get a sense of being in that time. It reads like fiction but this race really went down like its described. A terrific read.

8.Rob Neyers Big Book of Baseball Lineups-Rob Neyer(2003)-There is no plot in this one. What Neyer does is he takes each team and gives a lineup for the team all time 1st team,2nd team single season,all rookie,home grown, traded away, gold glove and iron glove. He gives little snippet of info for each player. His is a great book if you just want to pick something up for 5 minutes at a time. Over the years I crack it open every one and then. Its great especially if you love baseball history and comparing players from different eras.

9.I Was Right On Time-Buck O'Neil(1996)-Anyone who saw the Ken Burns baseball series came away with the feeling that Buck O'Neil stole the show. O'Neil was an above average player from the Negro Leagues in the 30s and 40s. He later became a scout and first black coach in the majors. He enthusiasm is incredible. He knew and played against everyone from the 30s to the 80s. His stories of the Negro Leagues and especially Satchel Paige have you laughing out loud. But when they got on the field it was no joke. This is the only autobiography on my list because O'Neil is such a different kind of person. Positive people like him are very few and far between in the world today in all walks of life. This is a is pretty quick read that will stay with you for a long time. As an afterthought if I was a big league manager I would make it required reading for all the black players on my team so they could see they are getting an opportunity to make millions of dollars because of the sacrifices of people like Buck O'Neil.

10.The Glory of Their Times-Lawerence Ritter(1966)-What Ritter did was go around the country and interviewed great players from the early part of the 20th century. He then devoted a chapter to each player. Some players include Smokey Joe Wood, Edd Roush, Lefty O'Doul, Paul Waner and many others. The powerful part of this book is hearing the players actual words descibing what baseball was like in another time. Its funny, sad and very informative. The best book about baseball in its early days.

MLB mock Draft-By Mike

2009-01-15T21:26:00.000-08:00

The powers that be at MLB.com and elsewhere have posted the first two rounds of a mock draft, so I thought I would offer a few comments and see what others might think. The draft results were as follows:

Pick
1.Hanley Ramirez
2.Jose Reyes
3.Alex Rodriguez
4.Albert Pujols
5.David Wright
6.Grady Sizemore
7.Ryan Howard
8.BJ Upton
9.Ryan Braun
10.Chase Utley
11.Jimmy Rollins
12.Miguel Cabrera

13.Josh Hamilton
14.Mark Teixeira
15.Justin Mourneau
16.Ian Kinsler
17.Johan Santana
18.Cole Hamels
19.Evan Longoria
20.Tim Lincecum
21.Carlos Beltran
22.Matt Holliday
23.Alfonso Soriano
24.Carlos Lee

I agree with the overall #1 pick. I was a little hesitant on HanRam a year ago but I'm a full believer now and this guy will hit in any ballpark in any condition (usually empty for him). I believe you can justify selecting ARod, Pujols, or Wright with the 2, 3 and 4 picks but there is no way Jose Reyes is a top 5 pick. Heck, I'm not even sure he is a top 10 pick.

As for the rest of the top 12, I'm down on Upton, Utley, Rollins and Cabrera this year. Is BJ Upton the guy who was mediocre for three-fourths of the season or is he the post season power hitter with a .500 batting average that everyone saw on television? The answer is neither. BJ Upton is a guy who I project to hit .280 with 15HRs, 90 runs scored and 45 stolen bases with RBIs being virtually nonexistent. With that said Upton at #8 is a reach. This draft was taken with the announcement of the Utley injury and if he's back in May then he is a top 10 pick but if threes any hiccups in his recovery process and he doesn't come back until June or the All Star break, you've wasted a top 10 pick. Rollins and Cabrera are due for a bounce back year years but there are guys in the second round that I prefer to have over them

Josh Hamilton and Mark Teixeira are two guys I would rather have than Rollins or Cabrera. Kinsler and Longoria are the real thing bit I don;t know if I take them that early. Matt Holliday was a top 10 pick over the last few seasons and the move from Coors Field may have an impact as will all the foul ball territory at McAfee Coliseum but don't sleep yet on Oakland's offensive prowess. If Daric Barton finds himself and Eric Chavez relives past glory days thanks to the arrival of Giambi, Oakland could be ok and Holliday would hit third in a lineup that features Holliday, Giambi and Cust. I guess I'm trying to say he was a steal @#22. We've already had the Lee, Soriano and Beltran discussion earlier in the blog so I guess that's it for now.

Best Season Ever

2009-01-14T20:56:00.000-08:00

The MLB Network continues to deliver great programming. One of my favorite regular programs is Prime 9 which counts down the top 9 in any given baseball category. The catch phrase is it does not end arguments it starts them. The episode I watched tonight dealt with the greatest pitching season ever. Third was Bob Gibson in 68, Second was Walter Johnson in 13. Number 1 was Pedro's 2000 season. That's the season when his ERA was 1.74 while the league ERA was 5.07. A few weeks ago I did a comparasion of Pedro and Randy Johnson in their primes and was reminded of just how dominant they both were. The research was eye opening and was reaffirmed by the program.

Braves Keeping It On the Down-Lowe

2009-01-13T20:21:00.000-08:00

Not a good day for Met fans as Derek Lowe has agreed to a deal with the Braves. Lowe will get 60 mil for 4 years. Thats considerably more than the Mets offered. The signing of Lowe comes one day after they signed Kenshin Kawakami. The starting rotation which was the major area of concern for the Braves is now the best part of their team. While Lowe, Vazquez and Jurjains are not Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz they are a very good trio. And if Kawakami is as good as advertised they will have 4 strong starters. With Jorge Campillo rounding out the rotation. Derek Lowe has been an above average pitcher since becoming a starter in 2002. He has won 12+games every year. His ERA has been under 4 each year for the past 4 years. And one other factor that can't be overstated his he does not get hurt. He has never been on the DL. Last season his K/BB ratio was a very good 3/1. He he was 20/34 in Quality Starts. And his sinker was as good as ever as shown by his G/F ratio of nearly 4/1. Some may question giving a 4 year deal to a 36 year old but sinkerballers tend to age well. Also Lowe has been a terrific big game pitcher. All those Brave fans that wanted Frank Wren's head after the John Smoltz controversy should be very pleased today. Unfortunately the rest of the team still has quite a few major holes. With the exception of Chipper Jones and Brian McCann the rest of the offense is weak. They have little power at key power positions like corner outfield and first base. And the bullpen is in need of more good arms. As of now the best they have is Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano both pitchers who are very injury prone. But even if they do nothing for the rest of the off season they will definitely improve from last years finish.

Welcome to Cooperstown Rice and Ricky

2009-01-13T03:40:00.000-08:00

Unlike the Veterans committee the Baseball Writers of America got it right yesterday with the election of Ricky Henderson and Jim Rice to the Hall of Fame. In addition Andre Dawson, a player I was on the fence about received 67% of the vote which means the chances are very good next year. As for Ricky its hard to believe 20 something writers out there do not believe he belongs in the HOF. These must be the same people that don't vote for anyone on the first ballot. Henderson is the gold standard for leadoff hitters. Simply put he is the best leadoff hitter in baseball history. No one created havoc like Ricky. And he was not shy about telling everyone just how good he was. As for Jim Rice it took him until his last year of eligibility to get voted in. He has a good point when he said my numbers have not changed in 15 years. He must be more relieved than happy. I definitely think he belongs. So we close the book on the class of 2009. The top four players who become eligible in 2010 are Roberto Alomar, Barry Larkin, Edgar Martinez and Fred McGriff.

HOF Ballot

2009-01-10T19:17:00.000-08:00

First of all I hoped you guys enjoyed my Hall of Fame Series. Thinking about those players brought back alot of memories for me. Also it was interesting to see if my memories of how good players were matched the numbers. So after thinking long and hard if I was to have a vote the following players would get my vote

1.Ricky Henderson

2.Mark McGwire

3.Jim Rice

If Mark Grace had a shot I'd vote for him just to her his induction speech.

Now its YOUR turn. PLEASE leave a comment to this post with who would get your vote. Since Mike and Howie are 40+ and saw these guys play I'm especially interested in your opinion.

Can we Please Skip the Redding?

2009-01-09T20:02:00.000-08:00

Apparently the Mets are on the verge of signing Tim Redding. Why????? Okay first the numbers, over the past two years his record is 13-17 with a less than stellar 4.53 ERA. His K/BB ratio is an awful 1.62/1. While he has given up 1.25 Homers per 9 innings. His WHIP was 1.44. And his % of Quality Starts was only 46%. There are alot of better options the Mets could have signed for a 5th starter. Randy Wolf would have been a much better option. I also would have much preferred Paul Byrd. Or how about bringing Pedro back. The three guys I mentioned would not have been expensive. The Mets have enough revenue coming in where they don't have to worry. While they are not in the same class as the Yankees when it comes to revenue they should not have to pinch pennies when it comes to filling out their rotation. Having the ability to have a big payroll allows you to do two things 1.go after the superstar free agent and 2.spend extra money on roll players and depth. Being able to spend 4/5 mil on a 5th starter and being able to spend a few mil on backup players is very important!!!! All we have to do is look at what the Red Sox did in the past week. Since they have a large payroll budget they were able to bring in Brad Penny, John Smoltz, Rocco Baldelli and resign Mark Kotsay. None of those players were huge dollar signings but together they gave the BoSox the ability to have depth. Very few teams have that financial capability. The Mets have a very competitive team and should be there at the end. Tim Redding could be an innings eater on a poor to middle team. Hopefully the Mets will be in a pennant race and when they get to their 5th starter it will be somebody better than Tim Redding,

Hoffman to the Brewers

2009-01-09T16:13:00.000-08:00

Trevor Hoffman and his Major League Baseball record 554 saves signed with the Brew Crew. Hoffman base salary for 2009 will be 6 mil with the chance for an extra 1.5 in incentives. Hoffman who spent his entire big league career with the Padres steps right into the closers role with the Brewers. Milwaukee desperately needed someone to close games. Their current bullpen features David Riske, Todd Coffey and Jorge Julio. Their closer of a year ago Salomon Torres retired after the season. Alot of experts have said that Hoffman has lost something off his fastball which makes the separation between his heater and his change less. While that might be true alot of his numbers last year were quite good. He was 30/34 in save opportunities, his K/BB ratio was the best since 2004 and his WHIP was only slightly over 1. The problem Hoffman faced was the long ball. He gave up 8 dingers in only 45 innings. If he can get back to average levels he should do a nice job for Milwaukee. While thinking about Hoffman I know alot of people are probably complaining about the lack of loyalty shown by the Padres. And for that matter the Braves with John Smoltz. Loyalty is a two way street and for the most part baseball in 2009 has very little loyalty on either side. In the old days of the reserve clause teams had all the power over players so the Padres could have paid Hoffman essentially what they wanted. But with the advent of free agency both players and teams show little loyalty towards each other. The Pads offered Hoffman 4 mil to come back. If playing in San Diego was that important to him he could have come back. I know I could live on 4 million dollars this year. But by the same token if he could make more money elsewhere, why not? This is further proof, not that we need it that baseball is a business. Frankly it always was. So lets not vilify either teams or players for situations like Trevor Hoffman and John Smoltz.

Sporting New's Top 20

2009-01-09T15:16:00.000-08:00

While shopping in the supermarket today I noticed the first Fantasy Baseball Magazine of the season has hit the newstand. So I figured I'd jot down TSN top 20.

1.Alex Rodriguez

2.Albert Pujols

3.Hanley Ramirez

4.David Wright

5.Matt Holliday

6.Grady Sizemore

7.Josh Hamilton

8.Jose Reyes

9.Ryan Howard

10.Ryan Braun

11.Miguel Cabrera

12.Tim Lincecum

13.Carlos Quentin

14.Johan Santana

15.Chase Utley

16.Manny Ramirez

17.Ian Kinsler

18.Carlos Beltran

19.Mark Teixeira

20.Lance Berkman

So what do you all think????? Personally I'm not comfortable with Lincecum@12. Utley @15 would be a risk. For him everything will probably depend on how much of the season he will miss. Manny @16 is also a risk. If he is motivated he is worth it. But expecting Manny to be motivated for an entire season may be asking too much. The last guy I'll mention is Ian Kinsler. Mike and I both predicted Kinsler would explode last year and we certainly were both right. We certainly won't be able to steal him this year in round 6-8. When I see lists like these I will post them. Leave comments on what you guys think of the TSN list.

Its Like Deja Vu All Over Again

2009-01-09T06:19:00.000-08:00

Now its Jason Giambi's time to go home. All these homecomings are reminding me of the famous George Carlin routine comparing baseball to football when he says the object of baseball is to go home, just go home. Giambi signed a one year deal for 4 mil and and 6.5 mil option for 2010. This is the second big bat that Oakland has added with Giambi joining Matt Holiday. Adding offense was certainly the As number 1 need in the off season as they were dead last in run scoring in the AL last season. My feeling about Giambi is this. Anytime you can get a guy who hit over 30 HRs and drove in 90ish runs for only 4 million dollars its a bargain!! In addition this is exactly where Giambi wants to be, makes the deal even better. The middle of the As lineup will probably now be some combination of Holliday, Giambi and Jack Cust. That's not too bad. The rest of the offense is still far from adequate. As most of you know I'm a big Billy Beane fan and I'm confident he has a long term plan. Their farm system has been bolstered the past 2 seasons from trades. Alot of these guys are close to being significant contributors. If Giambi is healthy and puts up good numbers and Oakland is in it around the trading deadline the huge decision is what to do with Matt Holiday? I'm thinking there is no way Oakland will be able to sign him. His contract may even surpass Mark Teixeira's. If he is dealt for a package of top prospects I see Giambi's role as being a leader and a mentor on what will be a very young team. The only part of this move I don't like is signing Giambi means he will probably DH on most nights as they seem committed to Daric Barton(who was with Dan Haren was part of the Mark Mulder trade) at first. This means Jack Cust who is ideally suited to DH will have to play the outfield. This move has many more positives than negatives. Will the As challenge the Angels for the AL west next year? Probably not. But Billy Beane is doing what he always seems to do and thats trade players who are about to become too expensive for young talent and find veterans for good prices that will not blow his sub 50 mil payroll.

In another move that has was made for other reasons than to improve their team the Cubs traded Jason Marquis to Colorado for Luis Vizcaino. Now if I understand this correctly The Cubs have essentially given away Marquis and Mark DeRosa for nothing useful in return. They only made the moves to clear salary space for Milton Bradley. Am I off base thinking this is a huge gamble that has the potential to really backfire on the Cubbies. Marquis has won double figure games 4 years in a row and we know how valuable DeRosa is. Yesterday on Hot Stove Joe Magrane, who I like and have respect after listening to him for years do Rays games said he thinks with the addition of Bradley the Cubs can win 100 games and win the World Series. Maybe I'm in the minority but I'm not on board with this. Now if the REAL endgame is Jake Peavy than that would be another story totally. But by all accounts it is all about Bradley. Productive players are available every year around the trading deadline and the Cubs could have probably picked up a left handed bat then without sacrificing DeRosa and Marquis. As for The Rox getting Marquis. He is the type of pitcher who can succeed in Coors. His G/F was 1.9. Which means he basically got 2 ground outs for every 1 fly ball. With Colorado seemingly in rebuilding mode he will probably be a 1 year rental as he is a free agent at the end of the year. But for 2009 he joins what should be a very solid group of starters in Colorado. They will feature Aaron Cook, Jeff Francis and Ubaldo Jimenez. There should be a good competition for the 5th spot featuring Jason Hirsh, Taylor Buchholz and one of the ulite power arms in the minors Franklin Morales. The Rox like the As have really bolstered their farm system and should get back to contending sooner than later.

Hall of Fame Part 3

2009-01-06T09:51:00.000-08:00

This is the final installment of my 3 part series looking at all the players on this year HOF ballot. The first two parts are in the archive. But in case you missed it heres what I got so far
Yes-Rickey Henderson, Mark McGwire(you can read the reason in part 2)
No-Jay Bell, Dale Murphy, Ron Gant, Don Mattingly, Mark Grace, Harold Baines Bert Blyleven,David Cone,Tommy John,Jack Morris, Jesse Orosco and Dan Pleasac
Maybe-Andre Dawson

Todays group has some of the most interesting and most debated nominees.

Dave Parker-The Cobra was a dominating player!! In his prime in Pittsburgh there were few better players in the National League. Defensively he had a absolute gun in Right Field. He garned 3 Gold Gloves. He was on 7 All Star Teams. He won MVP once in 1978 and was third in the voting in 1977. Seven years later in 1985 he was third. So why has he received so little consideration? While some of his career totals are a little on the light side, he has only 339 Hrs and a little less than 1500 RBIs he was a terrific player. I think being involved in the cocaine scandal from the early 80s probably hurt him. If his 1981-82 season weren't almost totally lost and he put up Parker like numbers he probably would have gotten in. But he is just a little short in my book.

Tim Raines-Quite a few people I really like and respect have been canvassing for Raines to get in. First the good. Raines was the best lead off hitter in the NL in the first half of the 80s. He led the league in SBs every year from 1981-84. His 808 career stolen bases is 5th overall in baseball history. He was in the top 2 in runs scored 4 times. And he was always solid in the field Rock was chosen to 7 All Star Games. But the number that convinces me he is not hall worthy is this. In his long career he was only in the top5 in MVP voting 1 time and that was a 5th. He was only in the top 10 three times. A terrific leadoff hitter and a player who I would have liked to have but also no, but close.

Jim Rice-Last year Rice was the closest without getting in. Growing up I always remember Rice as one of the best hitters in the AL. A guy you just don't give a good pitch to hit. Looking at his stats confirmed my memory. 8 All Star appearances. He won MVP in 1978 and finished in the top 3of MVP voting 6 times. His career SLG is over .500. He knock on Rice is twofold. One is he was a below average left fielder. On that count they are correct. But lets look at the guys who have been out there for the BoSox, Ted Williams, Yaz, Mike Greenwell and Manny Ramirez. None of those guys were even average fielders most were way below. So LF has never been a key outfield position for the Sox. The other criticism is his career totals in the glamour categories are a little weak. For me 382 HRs and 1451 RBIs are not awful totals at all. Unlike others Rice really did not hang around long after his prime to pad his career numbers. So Rice gets my vote!!!

Lee Smith-Most of you probably know I'm not happy with the current way bullpens are set up. I remember the good ole days of the firemen. Guys like Goose Gossage who would enter the game in any inning to put out to other teams rally. This occurred usually before the ninth. And then gasp!!! your relieve pitcher would pitch more than one inning. What a concept!!!!! While I won't penalize any of todays closers, they are doing what they are asked to do I don't know yet if you just get 3 outs with a lead you belong in the same place as the All Time Greats. Lee Smith had a very good career. So don't get 476 saves by accident. I give him brownie points for longevity. But I don't think he is Hall Worthy. I think a really good discussion can be had with whick of todays closers we will be talking about in the near future for entrance to Cooperstown

Alan Trammel-Trammel will always be known as the 2nd best SS in the AL during the 80s. With Cal Ripkin being head and shoulders above every one else. Trammel had a very nice career He was on 6 All Star teams and won 4 Gold Gloves. He was even 2nd in MVP voting one year. Alan Trammell and Lou Whitaker were terrific together. What I find interesting is the 84 Tigers were one of the best team in baseball in the 80s and they will have 0 HOFs. Not good enough.

Greg Vaughn-This makes me feel very old. I saw Vaughn in the summer of 1989 when he was playing AAA in Denver. He made 4 All Star teams. Not even in the ballpark.

Mo Vaughn- From 1995-98 Vaughn may have been the best hitter in the Al. He won the MVP in 1995. Alas 4 years does not make a career. The better of the Vaughns but also not close.

Matt Williams-I like Matt Williams. He does D-Back games when Gracie is doing network games. And he also is a very good broadcaster. He was a excellent power hitting 3rd basemen. His 378 career HRs are a testament to how good he really was. His career SLG is .489. He was named to5 All Star teams. And finished in the top 3 in MVP voting twice. Should he be in Cooperstown? No But he enjoyed a very underrated career.

Another Bat for the Rays

2009-01-06T07:33:00.000-08:00

Yesterday Pat Burrell signed a 2 year deal for 16 mil to play for the American League Champion Rays. The main knock against Burrell is his poor defense. The Rays can just insert his bat into the lineup at DH and not have to worry about his questionable defense. The Rays have a very good defensive outfield with Crawford in left, Upton in center and Matt Joyce in right. Mitch Williams said on the Hot Stove Report he is a decent outfielder with a good arm. So if Crawford goes down like last year at least they have a usable substitution. The other knock on Burrell was he has a relatively low batting average. But again this is a case when we need to look a little deeper than traditional stats. Burrell walked from 98-114 times over the past 4 years. His OBA for the past 4 years are 367, 400, 388, 389. Burrell will fit in very nicely with Joe Madden's philosophy about working the count. Burrell can also take the Cliff Floyd role of the veteran to the young Rays. Knowing he only got 16 mil over two years is very surprising. He received alot less money than Edgar Renteria. For a guy who has averaged over 30HRs and 100RBIs. The Phils paid Raul Ibanez who is 4 years older 31 for 3. By all indications Burrell wanted to stay in Philly. Financially Burrell would have been a alot better fit than Ibanez. The Rays now can have the following lineup Iwamura, Crawford, Upton, Pena, Longoria, Burrell, Joyce, Navarro and Bartlett. The money the Yankees have spent on Teixera, Burnett and Sabathia comes to almost the payroll for all the Rays starters, starting rotation and entire bullpen. The Rays are much better now than they were last year. It looks like the 3 best teams in the AL are all in the east.

In the other big news Milton Bradley signed for 3 years and 30 mil with the Cubs. The Cubs were in a opposite situation than the Rays. Tampa needed a right handed bat which is another reason the Burrell signing is so good. The Cubs needed a left handed bat. As during the playoffs the Dodgers used all right handed pitchers. There is no question that Bradley can hit. Though I do believe last year was a career year for him. There is also no question Bradley comes with alot of baggage. If the Cubs moved Mark DeRosa to clear up money to sign Bradley I'm not thrilled with the move. Also the Cubs have a pretty solid outfield already with Soriano, Reed Johnson and Fukudome. Scoring runs was not the problem last year. Also Bradley is not a good outfielder who never seems to play more than 120 games. I won't go into all of Bradley's off the field problems. Frankly I don't have that much time. This signing is a risk. If he stays out of trouble and finally matures, a big if, the Cubs will be very strong again. But the Cubs would have been fine without him. I think if I was the Cubs I would not have signed him. Then if the need for a left handed hitter was that strong I'm sure they could have got one near the trading deadline. This would not have cost them 30 mil.

Pedro vs. Unit

2009-01-05T18:34:00.000-08:00

Firstly I want to give credit to Howie for coming up with this idea. When I wrote about Johnson signing with the Giants he commented it would be fun to compare Pedro and Unit in their primes. What a great idea. I defined their prime as the best consecutive 8 years. 8 seasons is a arbitrary number. But since RJ won Cy Youngs 8 years apart it worked nicely. Also during those 8 seasons both had 1 season that they were injured. I believe when baseball historians look back at the 1990s 4 pitchers will stand head and shoulders above all overs. Greg Maddux, Roger Clemens and our two Pedro and Unit. Unit the huge nasty dominating lefty and Pedro the righty who might be 180 lbs soaking wet. In many ways they are so completely different. But as you will see from the numbers in alot of ways eerily similar. For the record Pedros prime was between 1997-2004. 97 was his last year with Montreal and his 7 seasons with Boston. And Units prime was between 1995-2002. 1995-1998(half season) with Seattle, 3 months at the end of 1998 with Houston and then 1999-2002 with Arizona. Also I used similar stats that I used when I compared Johan and CC. So here goes

Stat Randy Johnson Pedro Martinez

W-L 143-44 76% 147-45 77%

IP 1762 1633.7

H 1344 1585

K/BB 2416/543 4.49/1 1988/376 5.29/1

WHIP 1.07 .97

ERA 2.61 2.34

Quality Stats % 79% 79%

All Stars 6 6

Cy Youngs 4 (second once more) 3(second twice more)

Win Shares 176 172

World Series Win 1 1

Before I discuss those numbers a few things jumped out at me when I was working on this. One amazing thing is both pitchers prime occurred right smack in the middle of the now infamous steroids era. And to my knowledge unlike Clemens neither Johnson or Pedro was ever rumored to have juiced. If you look at the league ERAs during their peaks. The league ERA for Pedro was 4.58 which made his ERA a little more than half of the league. As for RJ the league ERA was 4.66 and his was 2.61 which is 44% better than the league. Now thats domination!!!! Also both pitchers spent their primes in good hitters parks. Chase Field in Arizona the best hitters park. Imagine if these guys spent their peaks in good pitchers parks. My favorite stat I found was about Pedro. During the 1999 and 2000 season he was 27/29 for Quality Starts for both seasons. Thats an ungodly 93%. Remember a Quality Start is defined as a pitcher who goes 6 and gives up 3 runs or less. So Pedro only had 4 games like that in 2 seasons. That just doesn't seem possible. Now compare that to Johan Santana who I think everyone agrees has been the best pitcher in baseball the past 3 seasons his QS% is 72% and CC is 66%. For the 8 seasons both pitchers in our comparison are an identical 79%. As for Randy Johnson if you throw out 1996 when he only pitched 61 innings he averaged 333 strikeouts per season. Thats 12.33 Ks per 9 innings. Another interesting thing about Johnson is he started his peak at age 31. His career arc is very similar to another lefty that took awhile to figure it out than was totally unhittable, Sandy Koufax. I also heard Koufax was the most dominating pitcher during the second half of the 20th century. But he had a few things going for him 1.He pitched in a great pitchers park in Dodger stadium where is is rumored the mound is higher than anywhere else 2.the 1960s were a time when run scoring was at its lowest point since the deadball era. Koufax's 1962-66 seasons are legend. And the stats are mind numbing but Unit and Pedro are not that far behind at all. Pedro's 2000 season when his ERA was 1.74 when the league was 5.07 is unbelievable. Also he accomplished this facing the Yankees and pitching in Fenway park. That season has to be one of the best in modern baseball history!!!! So who is better???? Pedro or Unit. Unlike the comparison between Johan and CC there is no clear winner. Looking at the stats I choose to use they almost mirror each other. It amazing just how close they really are. Since their peak both have been hurt often. There is a good chance RJ will be the last 300 game winner. For a career Unit is better for their prime maybe the slightest of edges to Pedro. You can't get in wrong either way!!!!!!!

Happy New Year To Me

2009-01-02T16:47:00.000-08:00

For me the biggest event associated with 2008 turning into 2009 was the LONG awaited debut of the MLB Network. Since everyone is throwing in their two cents about the debut here's mine. Firstly the Hot Stove Show was very well done. The three main analysts Harold Reynolds, Barry Larkin and Al Leiter were all opinioned without being cliquish. Reynolds seems like he is playing the role of the broadcasting veteran was typical Reynolds. Which for me is solid but not the best. Larkin was the rookie of the group. He seemed a bit nervous but definitely held his own in the three way conversations. For my money Al Leiter was the most entertaining of the group. It was apparent even while he was a player that Leiter would be a natural broadcaster. I also like that he gives the pitchers point of view while Reynolds and Larkin give the hitters point of view. I also know a few other analysts have been signed including Joe Magrane who did a very good job with the Rays the last few years. The sets looked good. I thought the interview with Jimmy Rollins was both entertaining and informative. The piece remembering the untimely death of Roberto Clemente was also very well done. My favorite part of the show was the segment when they took Jackie Robinson's famous steal of home in the 55 Series and broke the play down and analyzed it from all angles. I never saw that done. I must have seen the play a thousand times but until Al Leiter pointed out Whitey Ford threw from the wind up I never noticed it. The whole segment was terrific. Overall the show was a very strong start and I can't wait to see more.

As for the Don Larson perfect game I was looking forward to it. I must have seen Yogi jumping into Larson's arms after striking out Dale Mitchell a hundred times. But watching the actual broadcast blew in away. Famous players like Mickey Mantle and Jackie Robinson who were legends I've just seen in high lites or read about in many books. Names like Carl Furillo and Joe Collins were pretty much just names on Strat-o-Matic cards. But you talk about history coming to life. I got to see 6 Hall-of -Famers play a whole game. Firstly let me say the first thing that struck me was just how similar the game of baseball from 1956 is to baseball today. Its not hard to imagine those teams playing the same game against teams and players of today. Seeing Mantle hit a Home Run in the middle of a game and not just in a high lite reel was incredible. From the announcing booth I got to hear Vin Scully as a young broadcaster. 52 years later I'll hear him this year. And his style is very similar!!! I loved seeing the original commercials. I know I' would have payed the 1 dollar to get the Gillette razor with the free baseball encylodia A few things that struck me about the broadcast was there was no graphics on the screen during the game. It was just the game. Also things we take for granted like instant replay was not missed at all. And one of my favorite things was how not everything was sponsored. You guys know what I'm talking about. Like this pitching change is brought to you by...... The 6th inning home run contest is brought to you by....... I could talk about this all night long. To say the experience was magical for me would not even begin to cover it. I was like going back in a time machine which is something I've often thought of. Finally having Bob Costas inteviewing Lasean and Yogi while watching the game asked him what they were thinking was fantastic. Costas did his usual brillant job when he does things like this. I pray they do more things just like that.

Since today was Jenny's B-Day I did not watch anything this afternoon but already have 5 hours of programming on the DVR. I'll probably wake up hours before I have to go to work to watch some tomorrow morning. I can't wait.

So if you guys watched anything please comment on this and write your own comments. I love reading them

Finally...... Something

2008-12-31T17:54:00.000-08:00

After a few lean days for news a flurry of moves were made yesterday and today to close out 2008. The biggest move comes courtesy of the Angels as they sign Brian Fuentes to take over for K-Rod. In whats becoming a recurring theme this off-season Fuentes who is from Southern California wanted to stay close to home and pitch for the Halos. His deal is for a little less than what Kerry Wood got from the Indians. Fuentes got 2 years for 17.5 mil with a 9 million dollar option for 2011. While Fuentes makes sense as a plan B, wouldn't have made more sense to resign K-Rod? I don't believe the 4 mil difference per year was a stumbling block. The Angels were prepared to spend close to 20 mil a year on Mark Teixeira so they definitely had the money in the budget. Brian Fuentes has been fairly successful over the past 4 years with a save % of 85%. That's still lags behind K-Rod who has a 90% save rate. In addition Fuentes is 6 years older than K-Rod. Finally lets not forget when the Rockies made their playoff run Manny Corpas and not Brian Fuentes was their closer. So are the Angels a better team than they were yesterday because of this signing? Yes. Are they a better team than they were with K-Rod? No. The Angels have a very solid starting rotation and the luxury of being in the weakest division in the AL. They are still a solid favorite. But I would not be shocked if they only win about 85 games this season.

In a very low risk and potential high reward move the Red Sox signed Brad Penny to a 1 year deal for 5 mil plus a possible 3 mil more for performance incentives. I think Theo Epstein is one of the best GMs in baseball. Even though the Sox are a big market team they have not relied on signing big dollar free agents like some other team in the AL East. Unless you count Julio Lugo, JD Drew and Dice K none of their key guys are free agent signings. The Sox have done a great job with drafting, trading and player development. Think of all their home grown players, Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jon Lester, Johnathan Papelbon and Clay Buckholtz. Also acquiring Kevin Youkliss and David Ortiz in one sided trades. Last year Penny's numbers were awful but he was also injured. This is the same guy that won 16 games in back to back seasons. He joins Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell from the championship Marlins team. The worst case scenario is Penny is not healthy and gives them nothing. If thats the case they still have Beckett, Dice K, Lester, Wakefield, Buckholtz and Masterson. Since they are so deep at starting pitcher all they are out is 5 mil. Best case scenario is Penny gives the Sox a guy who gives them 180 solid innings at the back of their rotation. Also think about this if Penny is the same guy from 2006-7 and the Red have a specific need at the trading deadline they will be able to deal one of their young starters for the possible missing piece, whatever that might be. We also know pitchers get hurt and the Red Sox will be better able to sustain an injury than the Yankees. The AL East will be alot of fun!!!!

The Cubs trade of Mark DeRosa to Cleveland today was a bit perplexing. The Cubs signed Aaron Miles to take DeRosa's role. DeRosa will make 5 mil this year. And is free agent eligible next year. While Miles comes at 4 and change for 2 years. But if I was a Cub fan I'd be disappointed if this move was made to save a few million dollars. The Cubs got back 3 minor leaguers. None of which are prospects that will ever help them. As for Cleveland they will move DeRosa over to be their starting third basemen. DeRosa is coming off the best year of his career. He is an incredibly valuable player who can play everywhere. The only part of this deal that I find odd is how quickly it appears the Tribe are giving up on Andy Marte. This guy was a huge prospect who is out of options. Burying him on the bench will only retard his growth as a player. If I was the Indians I think I'd stay with Marte and give him until the All Star break to see if he can produce. As for DeRosa he can still get 500 ABs filling in for everyone. This off season the Tribe have now added Kerry Wood, Joe Smith and Mark DeRosa. The bullpen should be improved so there is no reason why they won't be able to contend in a wide open AL Central.

I hope everyone has a very happy and healthy New Year. We are now less than 20 hours to the MLB Network. I'll write a review in the next day or two.

Theres No Place Like Home

2008-12-28T05:57:00.001-08:00

Like Dorothy from the Wizard of Oz Randy Johnson wanted to go home. So he signed with the Giants. San Francisco is only 30 minutes from where he grew up and he also has spring training right near his current house. His deal is a great one for the Giants. His base salary is 1 year for 8 mil. His incentives that could bring 5 mil more. In today's market 13 mil is a bargain. Unit joins what is arguable the best starting staff in the NL. Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Barry Zito and Johnathan Sanchez. With the NL West having 2 teams(Colorado and San Diego) rebuilding. And 2 teams that are far from dominant(LA and Arizona) this signing gives the Giants a chance to contend. It has happened many times in baseball history where a team with very little hitting but great pitching surprises. With alot of players still out there as free agents maybe the Giants can get a run producing outfielder to bolster the offense. But I'd be careful who because all 5 of their starters are either neutral of fly ball pitchers. They would need to get someone to play good defense in LF.

Randy Johnson is a good argument on why why need to look a little deeper than the traditional numbers when evaluating players especially pitchers. As Fantasy players we all know that wins and ERA are critical. Without good win totals and ERA your team does not win. But in real baseball traditional pitching numbers leave alot to be desired. For example a starters win/loss record is dependant on MANY factors outside of his control. He may have a mediocre record not because he was mediocre but because of poor run support or the bullpen blowing leads for him. You don't have to look any further than Johan Santana's entire career. Also a pitcher is a slave to how well the defense plays behind him. I'm not necessarily talking about errors either. A good defensive teams turns potential hits into outs. So what does this have to do with Randy Johnson? Last year his numbers were a pedestrian 11-10 3.91 ERA. Now lets look a little closer. One of my favorite stats is Quality Starts. Its defined as a starter going 6 or more innings and giving up 3 runs or less. Essentially it means he gave his team a very good chance to win the game. Last year Unit was 18/30 for 60%. Oliver Perez was only 50%. AJ Burnett was only a little better at 63%. Another number I like to look at his strikeouts. Simply because the defense does not have to do anything for a strikeout its all the pitcher. Even as a 44 year old Unit averaged 8.46 Ks per 9 innings. Also RJs K/BB ratio was close to 4/1. So he is not beating himself. The stat that jumped out for me that bodes well for him is this. At Chase Field for a home park, a decent hitters park he surrendured 24 HRs in 184 IPs for the season. Now my question is how many of those fly balls stay in the park in AT&T? Since opposing batters only hit around 250 against him the Home Run is his main problem if that's taken away he could be in for a very nice year.

Also quickly Willy Taveras signed with Cincinnati. Taveras's skill set is obvious. He has very little power who can steal alot bases and play good defense. I think the Reds made this move out of desperation. If you look at their team the only outfielder who is remotely a starter is Jay Bruce. Taveras's numbers last year were truly awful. Remember he played in Coors Field where is OBP was 308. In 536 plate appearances in only walked 36 times. That is an horrific number for a lead off hitter. A more damning stat is for the whole season he only had 18 extra base hits. His slugging average was 296!!!! So Dusty Baker who loves to bunt gets the best bunter in baseball. The Reds have some building blocks with Jay Bruce and Joey Votto. And a decent group of starters led by Edinson Volquez. While I truly believe defense is an underrated part of baseball Taveras speed and defense do not make up for his shortcomings. At the end of the day if Taveras bounces back he is a small improvement over Cory Patterson. And if the Reds will contend in the future Willy Taveras will not be their CF.

Hall of Fame-Part 2

2008-12-28T04:48:00.000-08:00

This is the 2nd of 3 pieces discussing all the players on the ballot for the Hall of Fame this year. To review part 1 here is my opinions on who goes Cooperstown and who doesn't. Yes-Ricky Henderson No-Harold Baines, Jay Bell, Bert Blyleven, David Cone, Ron Gant, Mark Grace Maybe-Andre Dawson. For a full explanation check out the article called Hall of Fame part 1. Now for this week contestants

Tommy John- Tommy's is known by a generation of fans as being synonymous with the operation. While its true that the operation has extended the careers of countless pitchers that should not be enough to make him Hall worthy(maybe the surgeon). His career is similar to Bert Blyleven only not as good. He pitched for a very long time and put up very impressive career numbers like 288 wins but was rarely one of the leagues elite pitchers. He only made 4 All Star teams and only won 20 games 3 times. So if I'm not biting on Blyleven I'm not on TJ either.

Don Mattingly-From 84-89 he was the best 1st basemen in the AL. He was the best fielding 1st basemen in the AL with 9 gold gloves. Which still only made him the 2nd best fielding first basemen in New York during the 80s, Keith Hernandez was the best I ever saw. When looking at Mattingly's career ,the thing that surprised me was not how good he was, but for how short a period that he was outstanding. While he has 1 MVP to his credit he only eclipsed 25HRs in a season 3 times and also surpassed 100 RBIs only 3 times. His 222 HRs for his career leave him way short. While 307 is an impressive career average it places him in the hall of the very good.

Mark McGwire-I'm only going to invest 1 sentence talking about Big Mac's numbers. 583 HRs and a career slugging average of 588. Any other player in baseball history gets in easy with those numbers(Bonds and Sosa are not on the ballot yet). While I can probably spend hours talking about McGwire and the steroids era I'm going to try to stay brief. After the baseball strike in 1994 baseball was on life support. Fans everywhere were outraged. While a few of us junkies had to endure constant hammering by everyone saying how greedy everyone in baseball was and ask the question why should anyone care anymore. I love the game and there are alot of people out there like me . So in the years of 1995-1997 baseball was at its low point. Then 1998 and everything changed. The summer of 1998 was amazing!!! That Yankee team might have been the best team of the past 30 years and more importantly the Home Run chase between Mac and Sosa brought baseball back into the nations conscious. Yes in retrospect it was better baseball through chemistry. But in the summer of 98 most did not care. Frankly everyone involved in baseball from trainers to GMs to owners had to know players were juicing. And I'll go as far to say owners probably encouraged it since attendance and TV ratings were suddenly going through the roof. Also lets not be naive to think the only players juicing were Home Run hitters like McGwire, Sosa, Bonds and Palmeiro. Pitchers were juicing and so were many other players. C'mon Brady Anderson hit 50 HRs out of nowhere. McGwire as a human being was a good ambassador for baseball when it needed it. If you keep McGwire out you essentially have to render 10-15 of baseball history null and void. McGwire was doing what ALOT of players were doing at the time. If you keep McGwire out you must keep out Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Sammy Sosa and every player from the steroids era. So I'm voting yes for McGwire

Jack Morris-When I started doing this I probably would have voted for Morris. But when I looked at his numbers they did not match my memories. Morris had 254 career wins. He also pitched on 2 World Series teams. Like most people the memory of Morris is his historic performance in game 7 of the 1991 WS. When he threw a shutout and the Twins won 1-0. Also Morris threw the first no hitter I ever saw on TV. His stats show he was a very good pitcher but not a truly great one. His career ERA was 3.90. He made 5 All Star teams. But never won the Cy Young. He was never dominant. Though I don't have Run Support numbers for his career I'd be willing to bet Morris benefited from good offensive support. His career reminds me of Mike Mussina. So no on Morris.

Dale Murphy-A similar career to Mattingly in that they were very good but not for very long. In the early 80s Murphy won back to back MVPs. He was the best CF in baseball. From 82-87 he hit 29-44 HRs every year and knocked in 100 runs in each of those years on awful teams. He was an All Star for 6 years and won 5 gold gloves. While these numbers are all impressive he was only very good for 6 years. A longer body of work is necessary for me. No to Murphy.

Jesse Orosco-Author of one of the fondest moment in Mets history as he was on the mound when the Mets won the 86 Series. Jesse pitched for 24 seasons. In all those seasons he only logged 144 saves and 87 wins. Sorry Jesse.

Dan Pleasac-Pleasac only had 158 saves and 65 wins. A good broadcaster that will be on the MLB network. No way hall worthy.

Tears on My Keyboard

2008-12-25T19:07:00.000-08:00

Anyone who knows me knows exactly what I think of Mark Teixeira. Simply put he is one of my favorite players. I made sure I had him last year for my team. The news the he signed with the Yankees is disappointing to say the least. But by the same time understandable. Tex is a east coast guy who wanted to play close to where he grew up in Maryland. So I applaud him for staying with his wish. Unlike CC who sold out for the most money, west coast be damned. Since I started doing this when someone signed I try to hit three things 1.a little about the player 2. a little about the contract 3.how it affects the team. I'm going to hit some high lites because my next long comparsion piece will be about Tex so I don't want to be redundant.

Firstly Tex is a standout player. There is nothing on a baseball field he does not do very well. While he is not Jose Reyes on the base paths he is a smart base runner with average speed for a first baseman. Defensively he is a gold glover. I'm sure Yankee fans will compare him to Don Mattingly and Tex is every bit as good. With the bat he is a switch hitter with terrific power numbers who does not strikeout nearly as much as most power hitters. Also he is very consistent. And finally unlike AJ Burnett he is very durable. He should play at least 150 games.

180 mil for 8 years makes him the 2nd highest paid player in the game. Since 80 mil came off the books for the Yanks they were able to afford all 3 big signings. What his deal proves to me is that the truly elite players will always get paid regardless of the economic situation. While the Pat Burrell's, Adam Dunn's, and Bobby Abreau's of the world will have to take less money the best of the best will never have a problem. Also signing with the Yankees comes with it inherent pressure but he does not have to be THE guy. The press will always go to A-Rod and Jeter first. And I believe Sabathia will have more media scrutiny than Tex. He is a quiet guy who will go out everyday play hard and put up solid numbers.

So I guess the AL East is over before the season starts right? Not so fast. Even with the big 3 free agents and the trade for Nick Swisher the Yanks still have some holes. The outfield is far from being set. The bullpen before Mariano is not that great. And the bench does not impress me a great deal. Also lets not forget the Red Sox who should have everyone back( I think Veritek will resign) and that little team here in Florida that won the AL last year. If the Rays can survive a brutal early schedule they also will be very tough. I think you can make an argument for all 3 of those teams being the favorite. That race should be alot of fun.

Sporting News Top 24

2008-12-25T18:53:00.001-08:00

In an article dated Dec.9 the so called experts at sporting news had a mock draft of the first 2 rounds of a 12 team league. It was a typical 5x5 format. FYI the draft happened before the injury to Chase Utley was announced. So here was the top 24 picks

1.Hanley Ramirez
2.Alex Rodriguez
3.Albert Pujols
4.David Wright
5.Matt Holliday-the Oakland trade already happened
6.Chase Utley
7.Jimmy Rollins
8.Grady Sizemore
9.Jose Reyes
10.Ryan Braun
11.Ryan Howard
12.Josh Hamilton
13.Miguel Cabrera
14.Carlos Quentin
15.Johan Santana
16.Brandon Phillips
17.Tim Lincecum
18.Prince Fielder
19.Mark Teixeira
20.Ian Kinsler
21.Carlos Beltran
22.Brian McCann
23.Manny Ramirez
24.Lance Berkman

For my money the really bad picks were J-Roll at #7 was awful. Brandon Phillips at #16 was a major reach. Brian McCann at #22 is too high. And finally Manny at #23 is questionable. What do you guys think?

The Buc Stops Here

2008-12-25T06:50:00.000-08:00

A couple of days ago the Pirates signed Ryan Doumit to a contract for 3 years with a possibility for the deal to reach 5. Doumit is a rarity in baseball nowadays a catcher who could hit. Given the opportunity to play alot last year for the first time in his career he put up very good numbers. In 431 ABs his line was 15/69/318 with a slugging of 501. His 128 OPS+ told us he was 28% better than the average player which is a very high number. Doumit is either a late bloomer or someone the Bucs finally decided to trust. Last year he was 27 which is a pretty advanced age to get your first crack at starting. If you look at his defensive numbers they are not that bad. With Ronnie Paulino being traded earlier its truly Doumit's ball game.

With the Doumit signing hopefully the Pirates are going to try to do something positive for the future. I heard they are also trying to sign Nate McLouth long term. Though I'm no economist I would think the city of Pittsburgh is being hit hard by the current sluggish economy. With Jason Bay being a free agent after the 2009 season I think they made a smart move trading him when they did. Andy LaRoche is a big time prospect who should be in Pittsburgh for quite awhile. What I'm thinking about this morning is why have the Pirates been so bad for so long. In my opinion some franchises are run alot better than others. While market size and payroll obviously have something to do with it. Its certainly not everything. Two franchises that also seem to be competitive on a small budget are Oakland and Minnesota. With the sabermetric revolution there is alot more young GMs who are much more savvy when it comes to making decisions about player evaluation. Now alot of the GMs who are running successful teams are not old player/managers they are smart young people who know how to intrepid stats and run a business. Billy Beane may have been the first but now Theo Epstein has won 2 World Series in Boston with a mix of homegrown players and guys traded for before right before they blew up. Epstein also knows when to cut bait on a vet on the backside of his career. Here in Florida Andrew Freidman has done an amazing job with the Rays. And before anyone wants to say the Rays were only successful because they has so many high draft picks take a look at their roster. Of the core guys the only high picks are Evan Longoria, Carl Crawford, and BJ Upton. Yes Delmon Young was a number 1 pick but Freidman was smart enough to turn him into Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett. Which brings me back to my original thought about the Pirates. The Bucs have only won more than 75 games twice since 1993. I first looked at how they drafted since 2000 here is a list of all the players the Pirates drafted that amounted to anything thus far 2003-Paul Maholm and Tom Gorzelanny 2002-Matt Capps 2001 Jeremy Guthrie, Jeff Keppinger, Chris Duffy and Zack Duke 2000(a VERY good draft) Chris Young(pitcher unsigned) Nate McLouth and Ian Snell. So its obvious they have drafted very poorly. According to Baseball Prospectus 2008 of the top 100 prospects in baseball the Pirates only have 3 Andrew McCuthchen #24, Stephen Pearce #43 and Neil Walker #94. So the minors are pretty dry. So player development is not a strength. Being a small market team means they won't get the Mark Teixera's of the world but it does not mean they can't sign anyone. Every year there are some 2nd or 3rd tier guys that fall through the cracks that turn out to be good values. The Pirates have done an awful job finding those guys. With some young pitchers with major league experience the Bucs should try to built on that strength. Try to built a good defense behind them. For the next few years player development will have to be the key for them. Also trade established players who they are not going to sign for as many young studs as possible. Getting Andy Laroche was a very good start. By the way LaRoche was #14 on the prospects list. It won't happen overnight. But if we learned anything from the Rays it can be done if you have good young players.

Merry Christmas

2008-12-24T18:54:00.000-08:00

To my family real and fantasy, from New York to California to Florida I hope everyone has a very Merry Christmas. If I can bring myself to it I'll talk about Mark Teixeira tomorrow.

The Kid Is Alright

2008-12-22T18:06:00.000-08:00

Congratulations are in order as M&M Fantasy Football has a new champion, Bullet 28, Erik Hirsch. As the junior member of our league this must make the victory all the more special. Erik was a charter member of M&M Sports going back 5 years. His teams always seem to do well either in baseball or football. He always drafts well and is active on the waiver wire. With so many close finishes winning must feel really good. We are all very proud of you.

Input

2008-12-20T18:55:00.000-08:00

Since my piece on Monday comparing Johan Santana and CC Sabbathia was very well received I'm reaching out to you guys for ideas about the two players I should compare next. Any suggestions would be very much appreciated.

An Angel In the Outfield or the DL

2008-12-20T18:33:00.000-08:00

In whats been an incredibly slow couple of days the biggest signing is Juan Rivera reups with the Angels. I believe it was 3 years for about 15 mil. Thats about half of what Rual Ibanez got. The signing is similar to the AJ Burnett move in that the Angels paid for what can be, that has rarely been. Rivera has only surpassed 400 ABs once in his career. His best year was 2006 when he hit 23 HRs and drove in 85 runs. Unfortunately in 2007 he broke his leg playing winter ball and essentially lost the season and last year was a very disappointing one. Rivera regressed to 12 HRs in only 280 ABs. If you look beyond the traditional stats a disturbing number for him was only 16 BBs last year for a awful 282 OBP. If he is healthy he should certainly improve those numbers. I'm confident the Angels are not finished yet in the free agent market so where Rivera fits in is a bit of a question mark. Garrett Anderson is a free agent and probably won't return. Which leaves Vlade Guerrero, Torii Hunter and Gary Matthews Jr. all over 30 years old. And all a few years past their prime. If nothing changes I imagine Guerrero will play right, Hunter will play center and Rivera in left. I'm sure the Angels would love to deal Matthews but no one will take his contract. Kind of like Luis Castillo. As a LF Rivera is average. But Hunter is still fantastic which cuts down on the ground Rivera needs to cover. With Arte Moreno not being shy about spending money the move makes sense. At worst Rivera is an injury plagued 4th outfielder at best he is the kind of player he was in 2006.

A New Champion

2008-12-19T20:58:00.000-08:00

The last weekend of fantasy football is upon us. And a tradition that now stretches back all of two weeks. Trying to pick these games. For the record last week I was 2-2 and I am 4-4 for the past two weeks. Since I have to go to sleep then leave for the store in 5 hours these will be very short. First in the consolation bracket
Woogie 100 4-11 vs Big Daddy 5-10 Yahoo pick Woogie 100 -6
2008 was a disappointing year for both teams. Both teams seemed to play better at the end. Lets give Woogie the win.
My pick Woogie -6

All Hail Stitch 6-9vs Joes Broadway Crew 4-11 Yahoo pick All Hail -15
Are you kidding All Hail couldn't beat anyone or anything by 15. I may win but certainly won't cover.
My pick Joes Broadway +15

Mangowranglers 11-4 vs Screamin Skizzos 11-4 Yahoo pick Mango -13
I thought this would have been for the championship. These teams definitely were the class of the regular season. Mango is looking for revenge for the defeat in week 14. Mango wins and takes 3rd but not by the number
My pick Skizzo +13

FOR THE CHAMPIONSHIP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
KC Devil Rays 9-6 vs. Bullet 28 10-5 Yahoo pick KC -6
Firstly congrats to both Erik and Ray for getting to this point. We will have a new champion. KC has better RBs. Forte and Peterson have carried him the whole season. Bullets RBs have not been as consist ant. Ray gets his 1st championship.
My pick KC-6

Everyone thanks for a fun season.

Top Ten?????? Part Last

2008-12-18T21:17:00.000-08:00

I received the final email from fantasybaseball.com tonight giving me their top 10 relief pitchers. Without further ado here is the list

1.Jonathan Papelbon
2.Francisco Rodriguez
3.Joe Nathan
4.Jose Valverde
5.Mariano Rivera
6.Joakam Soria
7.Brad Lidge
8.Johnathan Broxton
9.Matt Capps
10.Kerry Wood

Honorable Mention
Francisco Cordero, Brian Fuentes, Carlos Marmol

As with the other two lists I have some problems with this one. I beleive the key when looking at closers are twofold 1.oppurtunity-obviously a closer on a better team gets more chances 2.competition-you don't want a guy who has someone who has someone else in their own pen who can take his job ie. Colorado last year, it was just a matter of time before Manny Corpas blew one or two then Brian Fuentes took his job. There are a few other factors but those are the 2 biggies.

California Stayin

2008-12-18T05:33:00.000-08:00

My what a difference a day makes. Yesterday is was widely reported Rafael Furcal was all set to return to Atlanta. I had an idea to write a piece about the how logical it would have been to play musical chairs with their defense to fit him in. But alas he decided to stay in LA. Even though he had many suitors including Atlanta, Oakland, KC and Toronto his contract is speaking volumes about what a tight market it is this year for everyone except starting pitchers. Furcal's deal is for 27 mil for 3 years. The option for the 4th becomes guarenteed he gets 600 plate appearances in 2011. The option is for 12 mil. And there is something about a 3 mil vested payment. So essentially he got the same deal as Edgar Renteria except one more year. I think this is a very good move for the Dodgers. For the past couple of years they viewed Chin-lung Hu as their next SS. But up until now he has not hit nearly enough to hold down the job. Hu is the 21st century Rey Ordonez. Great glove no hit. So they keep their lead off hitter and SS for at least 3 years at a very fair price. The Dodgers are not in a rebuilding phase and money should never be an issue with them. Though Furcal was hurt last year and had a sprained ankle at the beginning of 2007 he has proved to be very durable and very consistant. He is only 31 so at the back end of his contract there should not be a big drop off. Now that Casey Blake and Rafael Furcal have resigned I imagine Ned Colletti will go about trying to replace Derek Lowe and maybe sign Manny. The NL West is the weakest division in baseball. Colorado and San Diego are rebuilding. San Fran is moving in the right direction with their terrific pitching. Which just makes the race between LA and Arizona. Furcal gives the Dogers a much better chance of making the playoffs.

Hall Of Fame Part 1

2008-12-17T18:10:00.001-08:00

To say today was a slow news day in baseball would be a huge understatement. I really don't think anyone wants to read about Cesar Izturis signing with Baltimore. Even if the Os signed Cal Ripken in his prime they still are a last place In addition the off the field problems of Joba Chamberlain(DUI Trial) and Brian Giles(ex-Girl Friend Suing) does not interest me. One thing I do know if there is fantasy baseball in heaven Chamberlain and Giles just shot up Richards draft list. So I decided to look at this years Hall of Fame ballot and talk about each candidate. Being as old as I am I have vivid memories of just about all these guys. I'll break the list into 3 and when I get a day when nothing happens I'll talk about the candidates.

Before I get into this I have a confession. Remember when you were a kid and grown ups would ask you what do you want to be when you grow up? Well as a 44 year old, when I grow up I want to be a Baseball Historian. That probably shocks no one. Thinking about how players from different era compare is one of my all time favorite past times. If Bill James got a dollar for everytime I cracked open the Historical Abstract I'd be in need of a government bailout. Well anyway here goes. By the way I'll discuss the players in alphabetical order.

Harold Baines-Baines was one of the best pure hitters of the 80s. Over 2800 hits, a little less than 500 doubles and a BA of .289 makes him worth talking about. The downside is he was a DH. Which brings up a great baseball debate. If the Gods of the AL deem the DH as a legimate part of the game should guys like Baines be penalized? My take on Baines is simple the first DH to have a solid case is Edgar Martinez. IF Martinez is voted in then possibly we can talk about Baines.

Jay Bell-I'm shocked he is on the list. No shot.

Bert Blyleven-Byleven is probably the most debated player when it comes to the Hall. His accomplishments are amazing. 287 wins, 3701 Ks, which is 5th all time. He has more wins and strikeouts than anyone in baseball history not in Cooperstown. He was known for a tremendous curveball. Also he had the rep as a big game pitcher. His detractors point to the fact that he only made 2 All Star teams. So the argument comes down to this does a body of over average work for 22 seasons with outstanding career numbers make you Hall worthy even though you were never among the leagues elite at any time. Very close but no cigar.

David Cone-One of my favorite players on the ballot. Cone was terrific for the Mets after we stole him from the Royals. Any Met fan will remember that Loredo breaking ball. A likeabe guy who was one of the few Mets of that era who actually gave good answers to questions. Like Doc went to the darkside(the Yankees) and threw his no hitter in the Bronx. He belongs in the Hall of the very good. He just was not great for that long. Sorry.

Andre Dawson-The Hawk could do it all. Unfortunately it did it for most of his career in Montreal where no noticed. His numbers speak for themself 438 HRs 1591 RBIs 314 SBs and 8 Gold Gloves. I'll always remember Dawson getting beaned by Eric Show. Dawson was a tough player who I would have loved to have on my team. At this point I don't know if he gets my vote. Its very close. I'll let you know in Jan.

Ron Gant-Gant was an all around good player for a few season here and there. If he stayed healthy for his whole career he'd be Andre Dawson lite without the cannon arm. No way.

Mark Grace-Okay I'm partial. Gracie had a sweet swing and was a very good defensive first basemen. He has gone from a above average player to the most entertaining color man in baseball. Grace and Darren Sutton make watching D-Back broadcasts the most fun in baseball. So Grace does not get my vote now but maybe in 20 years of so he can get in the broadcasters wing.

Rickey Henderson-The best lead off hitter in baseball history. An absolute no brainer.

On a slow day I'll do part 2 next week.

Lets Hear It For The Old Guy

2008-12-16T20:46:00.001-08:00

Lets face it watching Jamie Moyer pitch gives the rest of us 40 somethings hope. Seriously before I talk about what his signing means for the Phils I want to take a few seconds to talk about what a unique career he has enjoyed. Every year in its annual book Baseball Prospectus gives the most comparable players for each player. I won't bore you with the details but what they do is match player X's age and accomplishments and match him to players of similar accomplishments. Jamie Moyer's top 4 comparables are Hoyt Willheim, Phil Niekro, Satchiel Paige and Tommy John(yes there actually was a player named Tommy John before the surgury). Not shabby company, 3 Hall of Famers. I'm not implying Moyer is headed for Cooperstown but he has had a very special career. Phil Niekro and Hoyt Wilheim were knuckleballers. Paige was the greatest pitcher in Negro League history. And Tommy John's career was done before the radical operation we now take for granted. If you look at the careers of the above pitchers at the end of their careers they held on. Simply put they were not nearly as effective as they were in their prime. Last season Moyer notched 16 wins, the 4th most in his career. Moyer has 245 wins going into this season. I don't see any reason why he won't win 25 in the next two years pushing his win total to 260. He will also end up career with over 2600 strikeouts.

So what does this mean to the 2009 Phils? Moyer will be a solid 4th starter. He will join Cole Hamels, Brett Myers, Joe Blanton and either Kyle Kendrick or JA Happ in a solid rotation. I think it will be unrealistic for him to win 16 games again. So much of a starting pitchers won-loss record is determined by factors outside of his control. Those external factors really helped Moyer last year. For example the Phils averaged 5.3 runs of support per start. And I don't have to remind anyone how good their pen was. To his credit he will do everything you want a back of the rotation starter to do. He averaged 6.0 innings per start last season and has eclipsed 185 innings pitched every year except one since 1997. In addition he averaged over 5 strikeouts per nine innings proving he has alot of ways to get hitters out. Which may be the key to his success with his experience he lets the hitters get themselves out against him. If you are not patient it will be a long 3 ABs against him.

A Pair of Aces

2008-12-15T11:59:00.000-08:00

Last week when CC Sabathia signed a huge contract with the Yankees I thought it would be fun to do a comparasion of Sabathia and Johan Santana. After all Sabathia's contract surpassed Santana's as the richest in the game for pitchers. Also with Sabathia in the Bronx and Santana in Queens the argument can be a 21st century version of Willie, Mickey or the Duke? Doing statistical comparasions are fairly simple. But chooseing what stat and how many becomes challenging. I selected mostly tradional stats with a few of the "new" stats thrown in for the sabermetically inclined. All the numbers in the chart are for the last 4 seasons. The OBA against and OPS against are an average of the past 4 seasons. Comparing these two pitchers also is very straight foward for two reasons 1.Since they played in the same division for 3 out the 4 years and the same league for 3.5 out of 4 they faced essentially the same level of competition 2.Progressive field in Cleveland, Miller Park in Milwaukee and the Metrodome in Minnesota are all offensively nuetral parks. One one season Santana spent at Shea a pitchers park gives him a very slight advantage. But its not like comparing pitchers whose home park was like Coors (great offense) and Safeco(great pitchers). So here goes

Stat Johan Santana CC Sabathia

W-L 66-33 63-38

IP 919.3 883.3

H 755 811

K/BB 924/203 793/206

WHIP 1.04 1.15

ERA 2.87 3.61

OBA Against 266 295

HRS Yielded 102 75

Quality Starts 72% 66%

All Star Games 3 2

Cy Youngs 2 1

Win Shares 85 74

Like the commercial says past performance does not guarentee future performance. But the chart is clear Santana has been a clearly superior pitcher the past 4 seasons. The only advantage to CC is HRs allowed.

In my research I came across a few interesting things about both pitchers. As for CC ,one concern I'd have would be his weight. I ckecked 50 years of Cy Young winners and only found 2 besides CC who have comparable weight, LaMar Hoyt and Pete Vukovich. For those of us old enough to remember those guys they had a few big years but then became injury prone. Was it the weight? All I know is pitching is tough enough on the human body. Pitching at 300 lbs. is a recipe for future problems. Another interesting tidbit is the Yanks should send Cleveland a thank you note. Sabathia surpassed 200 innings for the first time in 2007. So his arm does not have the same wear and tear that other pitchers who came up to the big leagues at a young age have. Finally a big X factor is how will CC handle New York. Pretty much anyone who will read this either has lived in New York or Boston. Baseball in these cities is akin to a religion and the pressure on CC will be immense. Everytime he takes the hill people will expect a shutout. Most fans will probably have unattainable expectations for him due to his contract. Up until now he has played in small to mid market mid western cities. And he is from California. So how he deals with playing in the Bronx will be key to his success.

As for Johan the thing that stood out for me is just how consistant he has been. If you look at his numbers they are very similar from year to year. Even the two weaknesses 1.Pitching in April 2.HRs allowed are consistant from year to year. Proof of this consistantcy is he has recieved votes for Cy Young every year since he became a starter in 2003. As a comparasion Sabathia won the award in 2007 and recieved votes in 2008 but thats it. Lastly I came across an interesting stat last year in his LOSSES his ERA was still under 3. The last thing I thought about Johan is with the Mets moving into Citi Field(UGH) and there being a large fence his HRs allowed should drop.

So what can we expect in the future? Simply put the Yanks needed Sabathia. The rotation was a mess and he gives them a legimate ace. Sabathia should be a perinial contender for an All Star spot. Though I would not be suprised if he only he notches maybe 1 more Cy Young. Also towards the end of his contact in 2014 24 million dollars a year may buy you someone like Dustin McGowan or Adam Wainright. As for Santana he is the best pitcher in the game. If the bullpen was not so awful he would have just recieved in 3rd Cy Young.

If anyone likes these kinds of comparsion pieces let me know. It was fun to do.

Let the Playoffs Begin

2008-12-14T04:16:00.000-08:00

After a grueling 14 weeks the second season is upon us. So in a tradition thats now in its second week I'll attempt to predict these matchups using the yahoo predictions for point spreads. Last week I was 2-2.

First the consolation Bracket-NIT

Big Daddy 5-9 vs Joe's Broadway Crew 3-11 Yahoo Pick Big Daddy -12
Big Daddy is hot, winners of 3 in a row. JBC has struggled all year. If the Jets play well today and they are due JBC has an excellent shot. I smell upset.
My prediction JBC +12

All Hail Stitch 5-9 vs. Woogie 100 4-10 Yahoo Pick All Hail Stitch -6
In a rematch of a contest two weeks ago I don't see the result being any different. If All Hail was a hockey team their golf clubs would be already packed with an 8 o"clock tee time. Since we've been doing this this is the worst team I've ever had. Good riddance
My Prediction Woogie 100 +6

Now for the REAL playoffs

Screamin Skizzo 11-3 vs. Bullet 28 9-5 Yahoo Pick Skizzo -19
There is no doubt Skizzo comes into the playoffs with the hottest team. His victory last week over Mango gave him a share of the regular season crown. As the junior member of this league Bullet should be congradulated on another excellent season. Skizzo wins but does not cover.
My prediction Bullet 28 +19

Mangowraglers 11-3 vs. KC Devil Rays 8-6 Yahoo Pick Mangowraglers -6
Battle of the Callahan brothers. I'm sure a fair amount of trash talking has gone on this week between Florida and California. Yahoo has this own at 108-102. If I scored triple digits and lost I'd be peeved. Mango has stumbled to the finish. But alas the playoffs are a new season.
My prediction Mango -6

Good luck to all. More baseball tomorrow.

Show Me The Money

2008-12-13T05:25:00.000-08:00

For the second time is as many days the Yankees have thrown more money than all other teams and got their man. Without a doubt the reason for the Yanks demise last season was the starting pitching. Now with the addition of CC Sabbathia and now AJ Burnett the starters are a strong and expensive group. Sabbathia, Burnett,Wang, Chamberlain and either Hughes, Kennedy or a free agent to be named later will give the evil empire a solid chance in the ultra competitive AL East. So is AJ Burnett worth it? Being the positive guy that I am lets start with the positives. Burnett has a power arm. He also has a full arsenal of pitches that make baseball people salivate. The guy looks like an all star. But what he has actually accomplished tells a different story. In Burnett's 9 year career he has won more than 13 games only once in his career. As for durability, or lack there of he has thrown 200 innings only in 3 seasons. Two of those seasons coming in contract years. Coincidence? And he has only made 30 starts in a season 3 times in his career. As for the body of his work over the past 5 seasons he has made 133 starts and had only 84 quality starts. Thats only 63%. I present these stats not to try to convince anyone that Burnett is not a good pitcher. All I'm saying investing that much money for 5 years is a very risky investment!!!

In other news the Phillies signed Rual Ibanez to replace Pat Burrell. Even though Ibanez can be very streaky during the season his numbers at the end are always consistant. Over the past 8 seasons his BA has been between 280-304 and his OBP has been between 792-883. This was accomplished in Safeco Field one of the toughest offensive parks in all of baseball. Coming to Citizens Bank should increase his numbers. Also he is surrounded by better hitters. At 31.5 mil for 3 years the Phils have a starting outfielder without a long term commitment. Ibanez will be 39 in the last year of his deal. From a Phillies point of view the problem I have with this move is two fold. 1.Ibanez is a left handed hitter. Now with Howard,Utley and Ibanez all hitting close in the lineup that makes them vulnerable to a lefty specialist late in games. To me a righty would have made more sense. Secondly Ibanez is an AWFUL!!!!! defensive outfielder. Defense it difficult to measure statistically but it definately wins games on the field.

Finally today the Met dumped Scott Schoenweiss to the D-Backs for Connor Robertson. The bullpen is being dismantled quicker than Shea Stadium. Schoeweiss definately needs a change of sceanery. Worst case for him is he could become Arizona's LOOGY(Lefty one out guy) He still has value. Just not in New York. Connor Robertson will probably end up in Buffalo. I figure the Mets pen now looks like K-Rod,Putz, Sanchez,Feliciano, Green and whoever for the 6th slot. Prefable a lefty.

Upon Further Review

2008-12-11T18:17:00.000-08:00

Last night I wrote I was not thrilled with the JJ Putz deal. Well after thinking about it for 24 hours I've revised my original opinion. Lets look at this deal from all three sides. First Cleveland, they gave up Franklin Gutierrez for Joe Smith. Like a certain team I know the Indians bullpen was a disaster last season. So trading a outfielder which is the strength of the team makes sense. But getting Joe Smith is strange. While Smith definately will be an asset it creates a right handed lopsided pen. The Indians top 3 releivers now are all right handed, Kerry Wood, Jensen Lewis and now Joe Smith. For Seattle they gave up Jeremy Reed, Sean Green and JJ Putz and received Aaron Heilman, Endy Chavez, Mike Carp and Gutierrez. Apparently Gutierrez was the key to the deal. With Ibanez leaving for free agency and Reed being moved that leaves a gigantic hole in the outfield. Chavez is a terrific 4th outfield but not a starter. I'm curious to see if Aaron Heilman will finally get his wish to start. If Seattle makes no more moves they are not improved, just a little cheaper. As for the Mets it comes down to they gave up Heilman, Chavez, Smith, Carp, Vargas and minor leaguers for JJ Putz. As for the other guys in the deal, Sean Green is similar to Joe Smith. They are both extreme ground ball pitchers but Green is older and is numbers are very underwhelming. I see his role being either pitching in games when the Mets are behind or in situations when they need a double play. Jeremy Reed was a highly thought of prospect who has never really panned out. He is a line drive hitter with very little power. He will be a 5th or 6th outfielder and a pinch hitter. As for Putz when healthy he is dominating. He now turns all Mets games into 7 inning affairs. The most interesting thing I read today came from Jayson Stark who said if baseball had 7 innings the Mets would have beat the Phillies by 11 games. If baseball had 8 innings the Mets would have won by 5. Hopefully with the pen addressed the Mets will move on to getting a starting pitcher and a run producing outfielder. To be continued......

In a big shock CC Sabbathia ended up with the Yankees for enough money to bail out GM. This makes total sense on every level. Of all the teams that were pursuing CC the Yanks definately needed him the most. Think about it the Angels, Red Sox and Dodgers are all strong at the starting pitching while the Yankees rotation is in need of a serious makeover. He gives them a big time ace to compete in the AL East. In the next few days I'm going to work on a piece comparing CC to Johan and I'll talk more about him then.

The last big move was the trade between the Rays and Tigers. Edwin Jackson goes to Detroit while Matt Joyce comes to Tampa. Jackson was a highly thought of prospect going back to his days with LA. Last year everything came together and he really seem to figure it out. He earned 14 wins for the Rays last year. He falls under the very valuable categorey of an established big league pitcher who is not eligible for free agency for a few years. He will join Verlander, Galarraga, Bonderman(if healthy),Miner and Dontrelle Willis in a respectable Tiger rotation. As for the Tampa native Matt Joyce he fits into what has made the Rays successful. Firstly he is a way above average outfielder. He is still very young at 24. His slugging pct last year was .492. Baseball Prospectus 2008 has his top comparable being Ryan Church. Joyce is good, getting better, with a very high ceiling. And did I mention not eligible for free agency for 5 years. Which is very important to the Rays.

Top 10 ????? Part Deux

2008-12-10T20:18:00.000-08:00

I closed tonight and open in a few hours so tonight will be short. Tomorrow I'll tackle the Yankees signing of CC and the Mets deal for JJ Putz(my first reaction to the Putz trade is I don't like it). Also by tomorrow there may be more signings or trades.

Last week my new friends at fantasybaseball.com send me an email giving me their top 10 hitters which I posted. Mike and Daniel threw in their two cents. Today they sent me their top 10 starting pitchers. So here is something to think about.

1.Tim Lincecum
2.Johan Santana
3.CC Sabbathia
4.Dan Haren
5.Roy Halladay
6.Jake Peavy
7.Ervin Santana
8.Brandon Webb
9.Cole Hamels
10.AJ Burnett

Honarble Mention
Josh Beckett
Scott Kazmir

In my book Johan is certainly #1. Taking nothing away from Lincecum who was fantastic last year against everyone but the Mets. Lincecum at this point in his career has had only 1 great year. Johan's luck certainly can't get any worse!! As for the rest of the list I have alot of disagreements. Though I like Haren I like Webb more. I'll take Lackey over E. Santana. And AJ Burnett is not a top 10 pitcher. Especially if he goes to the Yankees and has to face all those stacked lineups in the AL East. My personal feeling is it not so important who your ace is, is alot more important if you draft your 2,3 and 4 pitchers well. PLEASE comment on the list.

I've got to go to bed. ALOT to talk about tomorrow.

Special K-Rod

2008-12-09T18:59:00.000-08:00

As day two of the winter meetings is coming to a close the Mets were the big winners today. K-Rod was the best closer on the market and the Mets signed him to a very good contract for both parties. The Mets get a guy who has saved 88% of his games the past 3 seasons. Also he is still young. It just seems like he's been around forever. It does not take a baseball genius to figure out the Mets collapse the past two years coincided with injuries to Billy Wagner. At 37 mil for 3 years the Mets have a guy in the prime of his career for a very economical contract. As for K-Rod he will only be 30 when his Mets contract will be up setting himself up for another big payday when the market for closers will probably be better. If he stabilizes the 9th inning now the Mets can go about reconstructed the rest of the pen. I'm hoping they can sign Juan Cruz. Cruz averaged 12.4 strikeouts per 9 innings last year. And he can pitch more than one inning. I'm fairly confident Aaron Heilman will be dealt. Reading various sources it seems he is still a valuable commodity. So hopefully Omar will take his time and make the best deal possible for him.

Staying on the closer theme Kerry Wood appears headed to Cleveland. 2 years with an option for a 3rd. No finances disclosed yet. Once Joe Borowski went down last year they went throught alot of closers. Jensen Lewis did a nice job at the end of the season. IF!!!!!!!!!!! Wood is healthy he has dominant closer written all over him. The Tribe are still close enough in the AL Central to contend. Especially since the division champion White Sox are being dismantled. Its not hard to picture Cleveland fighting for the division championship. And if thats the case Wood could be a major piece of the puzzle. A la Brad Lidge

In a minor trade. Baltimore sends Ramon Hernandez to Cincinnati for Ryan Freel and minor leaguers(no real prospects). The Reds were in desperate need of a catcher. Paul Bako is certainly not the answer. Hernandez hit 15 HRs last year. Also being a veteran should help the young Reds pitchers. As for Baltimore I don't believe this move is about getting Freel. Saying Freel is injury prone is like saying Disneyworld get tourists. If he stays healthy and Baltimore gets anything from him its a bonus. As I see it there are two positives for the Os. First the minor one is they get to dump some salery trading Hernandez. And the major moving Hernandez opens the job for Chris Wieters. If you have not heard of him yet, now will!

About the only other bit of news to discuss is Casey Blake signs with the Dodgers 3 years 17 mil. Blake is a very useful player who can play just about everywhere. He was very underrated last year after the Dodgers traded for him. Manny got all the attention but Blake was very productive. It seems all good teams have guys like Blake. The Dodgers now have to decide on Manny and if they are going to enter the CC sweepstakes. With San Diego wanting to have a payroll around 40 mil., Colorado rebuilding and the Giants with a weak linup the NL west may be a two horse race with Arizona and LA.

Is it my immagination or has the market for starting pitchers reached irrational levels? And I'm not even talking about CC. I heard Derek Lowe has a offer on the table for 67 mil for 4 years. Do the math thats over 16 mil per for a 36 year old pitcher. I like Lowe but at that price tag let the Yanks and Red Sox fight it out. Then there is AJ Burnett. When you watch him pitch he looks like he has the potential to throw a shutout on any given night. BUT his numbers are not even close to the money thats being talked about for him. And it seems everyday somebody else is interested. At last count I've got Atlanta, St. Louis, Boston ,Toronto and of course the evil empire. Now lets not forget Burnett has a career filled with injuries. He may turn out to be a 15 game winner but he may just also easily turn into Carl Pavano

All Quiet on the Western Front

2008-12-08T17:54:00.000-08:00

As of 9PM on monday night outside the retirement of Greg Maddux nothing much has occured at the winter meetings today. Gerald Laird wes sent by Texas to Detroit. The move makes some degree of sense for both clubs. The Tigers need someone to replace Ivan Rodriguez and have no one in their farm system. Laird is a barely adequete bat and a above average defensive catcher. He is not someone to built a team around but there are certainly worse. Also the price was right. Neither of the guys they sent to Texas will be missed. As for Texas they are one of the few teams with an excess at catcher. Even trading Laird they still have Jarrod Saltamacchia and Taylor Teagarden. Saltamacchia was highly thought of going into last year. While his defense is fair its his bat that should give him a long career. Don't forget he was the key part of the trade that sent Mark Teixera to the Braves. As for Teagarden I hear he is kind of like Mickey Tettleton. Good power lots of strikeouts very little defense.

Everything else at this point is rumor. Maybe tomorrow will bring something concrete.

No Justice

2008-12-08T10:14:00.000-08:00

The veterans committee today elected only Joe Gordon for the Hall Of Fame. My guy Ron Santo failed again to get elected. The vote was cast by the 64 living Hall of Famers. Since this group has not voted any one in since 2001 the question should be asked is this the best system. When I tried to explain the system to Jenny her response was it seems easier to be named a Saint. She may be right. If anyone read the last post you know I think Santo is a no brainer. How come I fear his election will eventully come but will probably happen after he dies. The living Hall of Famers seem to want to have there little exclusive club stay that way. I won't go on about this because I'm probably the only one who reads this that cares.

Its Time to Get it Right

2008-12-07T19:52:00.000-08:00

Cooperstown is a magical place(unbeleivable, a magical place not in Orlando). For a baseball fan its Mecca. My family often made fun of me that I would read EVERYTHING. I'll never forget my numerous visits there. From my first family vacation to the last time there after the death of my mother. It will always be a special place to me.

Tomorrow the reults of the veterans committee will be announced. While I saw some players play like Al Oliver and Luis Tiant. Most of the players are just players I read about or guys I played with playing Strat-o-Matic. While I'd like to see Gil Hodges be elected I only have a very strong opinion about one player. First the facts. This player played in the worst offensive period since 1920 so all his stats must be looked at through that prism. He was a 9 time All Star, had 8 straight seasons of 90 RBIs,5 straight years when he was either 1st or 2nd in walks. 342 HRS and over 1300 RBIs. Let me reinerate that run scoring was so awful during this players career baseball had to change the rules to stimulate offense. One year 301 won the batting title. While Bob Gibson threw up a 1.12 ERA. So how about his defense? 5 straight Gold Gloves. And for a last piece of evidence Bill James ranks him the 5th best third baseman of all time. So how in the world is Ron Santo not in the Hall of Fame.

While his numbers are truly hall of fame quality it the fact that he played his entire career with type 1 diabetes that blows my mind. When he was diagonsed there was no Blood Sugar meters. No insulin pumps. And the needles were huge. I know what its like with all the modern tools how incredibly difficult it is to control blood sugar. Santo did not tell anyone for the first few years of his career fearing they would kick him out of baseball. Playing everyday with diabetes is a incredible accomplishment. How amazing in the time since Santo there has not been 1 single everyday player make the show(a few pitchers hear and there but never a non pitcher) If anyone has ever been around a diabetic you know the challenges they face on a day to day basis. Since he retired Santo has been a much loved radio announcer for the Cubs. And has probably raised more money for JDRF than any athlete.

As a player his accomplishments on the field made him Hall worthy years ago. And knowing what it took to be without question the best third baseman on the NL in the 1960s makes him an insperation. So at 1PM on monday I'll be watching the announcement with much anticapation.

The End is in Sight

2008-12-07T06:48:00.000-08:00

Week 14, the final week of the FFL league is upon us. Playoff seedings and household bragging rights are at stake. Since I've only have about 10 minutes before I have to go to work these will be very short predictions. Good luck to all this week. By the way the point spreads are from yahoo's projected score

Game 1 All Hail Stitch 5-8 vs Big Daddy 4-9 Yahoo Big Daddy -5
There really is nothing to like here for All Hail. If Steven Jackson plays well maybe I can break 60 points. Law of averages say my team has to have a good game after 6 straight losses. But todays not the game, Big Daddy wins third in a row and covers
My prediction Big Daddy -5

Game 2 KC Devil Rays 7-5vs.Broadway Joes 3-10 Yahoo KC -16
LT finally had a good game on thursday which kind of makes this like cheating. KC overall is a much stronger team with a shot at 3rd place. KC wins but does not cover
My prediction Broadway Joes +16

Game 3 Bullet 28 8-5 vs Woogie 100 4-9 Yahoo Woogie -4
Woogie has been a hot team of late. With both teams having questions at RB this game may come down to the QBs. We know Phillip Rivers had a big game will Drew Brees? Okay bro three in a row for you. Since Erik has kicked your butt all year. baseball and football today is for you.
My prediction Woogie -4

Game 4 Mangowraglers 11-2 vs Scramin Skizzo 10-3 Yahoo Skizzo -5
The BIG ONE!!!!!!! Maybe even a championship preview. Both teams have certainly been the class of the league this year. Even if Skizzo wins he would need to win by about 55 to get the #1 seed. Favorable matchups on both side . It comes down to Skizzo has won 6 in a year so law of averages catches up with him this week. Mango had that kind of game 2 weeks ago.
My prediction Mango +5

Who Knew FFL 2008?-By Mangowranglers

2008-12-06T17:07:00.000-08:00

Who Knew FFL 2008?

Who knew that the Number 1 running back in Fantasy Football would be Michael Turner?

Or that the consensus Number 1 pick overall, LaDanian Tomlinson, would not even crack the top 10 running backs and rank 26th overall?

Or that Matt Forte would be more valuable than Adrian Peterson during the regular season?

Or that Larry Johnson would be outperformed by just about everybody - including Ricky Williams? Or that the Number 1 and MVP of the league would be the UNDRAFTED Curt Warner? Here is a breakdown of the top players by position and where they were drafted in the M&M fantasy league:

Running Back Draft Position
1. Michael Turner 25
2. Clinton Portis 12
3. Matt Forte 78
4. Marian Barber 5
5. Adrian Peterson 3
6. Thomas Jones 101
7. Brian Westbrook 4
8. Chris Johnson undrafted (free agent claim week 1)
9. Frank Gore 11
10.Brandon Jacobs 53
11. DeAngelo Williams undrafted (free agent claim week 5)
12. Maurice Jones-Drew 16
13. Marshawn Lynch 13
14.LaDanian Tomlinson 1
15.Steve Slaton 113
16.Lendale White 19
17.Ronnie Brown 56
18.Kevin Smith 95
19.Reggie Bush 43
20.Jamal Lewis 18
21.Mewelde Moore undrafted(free agent claim week 8)
22.Tim Hightower undrafted(free agent claim week 8)
23.Ryan Grant 9
24,Steven Jackson 2
25.Derrick Ward still available

Luckiest drafter Mangowraglers who netted 4 out of the top 10 backs of 2008. Unluckiest drafted Woogie whose first two picks Addai and L. Johnson currently rank 29th and 39th among RB

Wide Receiver Draft Position
1.Anquoin Boldin 39
2.Larry Fitzgerald 28
3.Calvin Johnson 57
4.Greg Jennings 40
5.Roddy White 51
6.Terrell Owens 20
7.Andre Johnson 29
8.Randy Moss 6
9..Santana Moss 66
10.Reggie Wayne 21
11.Lance Moore undrafted(free agent claim week 8)
12.Kevin Walter undrafted(free agent claim week 8)
13.Dwayne Bowe 75
14.Steve Smith 36
15. Brandon Marshall 46
16.DeSean Jackson undrafted(free agent claim week 1)
17.Vincent Jackson undrafted(free agent claim week 1)
18.Hines Ward 55
19.Lee Evans 39
20.TJ Houshmanzadeh 24
21.Laverneus Coles 84
22.Bernard Berrian 115
23.Eddie Royal undrafted(free agent claim week 1)
24.Wes Welker 35
25.Steve Breaston still available

We drafted much better here as all but three of the top 25 wide outs were drafted or picked up before the season began.

Quaterbacks Draft Position
1.Kurt Warner undrafted(free agent claim week 3)
2.Drew Brees 23
3.Phillip Rivers 86
4,Aaron Rogers 120
5.Jay Cutler 82
6.Peyton Manning 15
7.Donovan McNabb 76
8.Tony Romo 14
9.Matt Cassel undrafted(free agent claim week 8)
10.Eli Manning 90
11.Brett Favre 80
12.Tyler Thigpen still available
13.Chad Pennington undrafted(free agent claim week 5)
14.Joe Flacco still available
15.David Garrard 110
16.Jason Campbell undrafted(free agent claim week 3)
17.Matt Ryan still available

Skizzo picked everyones pocket by picking up league MVP as an undrafted free agent in week 3 to complement the fact that he also got the leagues 4th best QB with the very last pick in our draft. Also a note of interest for the future this marks the second year in a row where QBs take 6 of the top 10 points positions and not RBS.

Editors Note-Thanks Mike for the info. It was interesting to see what we got right and what we missed.

Germany Wins-Thanks Mike

2008-12-06T11:53:00.000-08:00

With the biggest college football weekend of the year off to a great start last night with the Buffalo Bulls celebrating the biggest event in school history ( since my graduation) winning the MAC Championship beating the previosly undefeated and 12th ranked Ball St. Mike found the following article online. We both think its really funny

After determining the Big 12 championship game participants the BCS computers were put to work on other major contests and today the BCS declared Germany to be the winner of World War 2.

"Germany put together an incredible number of victories begininning with the annexation of Austria and the Sudetland and continued on into conference play with defeats of Poland, France, Norway, Sweeden, Denmark, Belguim and the Netherlands. Their only losses came against the US and Russia, however considering their entire body or work-including an incredibly tough strenght of schedule- our computer deemed them worthy of the #1 ranking"

Questioned about the #1 ranking of the United States the BCS comissioner stated "The US only had two major victories-Japan and Germany. The computer models, unlike humans weren't influenced by head to head contests- they counted each victory only as a single equally weighted event"

German chancellor AdolF Hitler said" Yes. we lost to the US, but we defeated #2 France in only 6 weeks" Herr Hitler has been criticized for seeking dramatic victories to earn style points to enhance Germany's rankings. Hitler protested "Our contest with England was in doubt until the final day and the conditions in Norway were incredibly challenging and demanded the application of additional forces."

The French ranking has come under scutuny. The BCS commented "France had a single loss against Germany and following a perseason #1 ranking they only fell to #2"

Japan was ranked #3 with victories including Manchuria, Bornio and the Phillipines.

Top 10 ????

2008-12-05T15:13:00.000-08:00

I recieved a email from something called fantasybaseball.com. I must be on some sort of mailing list. Well anyway they listed the top 10 projected hitters for 2009 fantasy baseball in a typical 5x5

1.Alex Rodriguez
2.David Wright
3.Albert Pujols
4.Hanley Ramirez
5.Jose Reyes
6.Grady Sizemore
7.Ryan Braun
8.Ryan Howard
9.Carlos Lee
10.Dustin Pedroia

Honarable Mention

Russell Martin
Matt Holiday
Carlos Quintin

While I can't argue with numbers 1-8(except maybe I'd change the order a bit) Lee seems like a 2nd rounder to me. And Pedroia perhaps even later. We will have plenty of time to talk about fantasy rankings.

By the way they promised me a email to tell me thier top 10 pitchers next week. I'm guessing a certain Met will be number 1.

One Mans Fix

2008-12-05T13:43:00.000-08:00

My favorite baseball website is baseballprospectus.com. It is not for everyone as some people may be turned off by the heavy use of sabermetrics. One reason why I like the site so much is when it challenges convential baseball wisdom it does with numbers. Currently they are in the middle of a seris called GM for a day. They take each team and make recommandations on how to improve the team. Yesterday they did the Mets and the recommandations were pretty interesting. Here are the highlites 1.For bullpen help DO NOT sign K-Rod instead sign both Kerry Wood and Juan Cruz. The logic being you can get both for about the same money as K-Rod and committ less years. 2.Go after Bobby Abreu. With the excess of corner outfielder on the market Abreu might be had for about 35 mil for 3 years. BP feels the Mets need a proven run producer in one of the corner outfield spots. 3.Let Pedro and Perez walk and sign Derek Lowe. The rotation would be Johan-Maine-Lowe-Pelfrey-Niese.

So what do I think. As for step 1 I agree that I don't want to invest neither 4 years or 12 mil per on a closer. The market is overflowing with candidates. Brian Fuentes, Kerry Wood and Trevor Hoffman are all free agents. And depending on what you beleive Bobby Jenks and Huston Street may be available for a trade. The Mets will certainly get somebody. I like Cruz. He can pitch anywhere in the pen and can even pitch multiple innings if necessary. And his price tag should be very reasonable. As for the outfield situation I agree the Mets definately need someone else. A proven run producer. Ryan Church's health is now in question after last season. And the left field combination of Daniel Murphy and Fernando Tatis could be improved. I'm sure one knock on Abreu is he is left handed and the Mets really don't need another lefty in their lineup. But last year Abreu hit lefties better than righties. Also no team in the division has a lefty closer. For me plan B should be Juan Rivera. He can play both left and rightfield. And when healthy has been a productive player. Also he will not be very expensive. Finally getting Derek Lowe may be easier said than done. As I see it there are 3 free agent pitchers worth signing. CC Sabathia is probably either going to the Yankees or Angels for Johan Santana money. Then comes AJ Burnett who will either go to Boston, Yankees , Atlanta or Toronto. Reports have the Braves offering him 60 mil for 4 years plus an option. That leaves Derek Lowe. I fear the Mets will be locked in a bidding war with the Yankees and Red Sox. And if the Yankees don't get CC they will certainly overpay for Lowe. As I see it there are no plan Bs. I'm not interseted Paul Byrd or Jon Garland. Maybe they can work a deal with the Rays for either Edwin Jackson or Andy Sommanstein. I know the Rays like Aaron Heilman but it will certainly take more than him to get one of those pitchers.

Anyway we should begin to see the pieces fall into place next week.

A Tale of Two Shortstops

2008-12-04T21:00:00.000-08:00

Todays news revolves around two shortstops, Edgar Reneteria and Khali Greene. First the news that the Giants signed Reneteria was no suprise. Rumors had them looking at Reneteria as a plan B if they could not sign Rafael Furcal. I guess it came down to Furcal wanting 4 years at about 10 mil per. And Reneteria came at 18 mil for 2 years. On the surface signing Reneteria to replace Furcal was a sound enough move. BUT!!!!!! was it what the Giants really need? For a team that was 29th in runs and dead last in homers it would have made more sense to be to try to get one of the big outfield bats that are available. Adam Dunn comes to mind. I do not know what the Giants payroll will be, but if this signing regates them getting a slugger than it does not make sense to me.

As for Khali Greene he is headed for St. Louis. In return the Padres got relieve pitcher Mark Worrell(no relation to Todd) Greene had an awful year in 2008. But he has too much talent to consistantly hit around 220. A change of scenery will probably do him a world of good. Also even in a sub par year he is a upgrade over Cesar Izturis. Mark Worrell is a 25 year old who was a closer in the low minors. I can't believe San Diego could not get anything better for Greene. It appears this is step one for the Padres rebuilding process. Next week Jake Peavy could be next. The latest has him going to the Cubs in a 3 team deal involving Baltimore as the third team. Stay tuned.

Luke Warm Stove League

2008-12-03T16:24:00.000-08:00

Only a few notes of interest came out of baseball today. Hopefully next week the winter meetings will provide more things to talk about. The big news is the Red Sox signed Dustin Pedroia for 6 years for 40 mil. This deal is very similar to the one the Mets gave both Jose Reyes and David Wright. The advantage to the Sox is they bought out his first 3 years of free agency. If Jason Veritek leaves for free agency Pedroia might be thier next leader. So what about Pedroia? I think he will be an above average 2nd baseman for a long time. A borderline All Star. Though right now I'd rather have Ian Kinsler. His size has to be a concern. The last guy that small to have a productive career was Fred Patek of the Royals in the late 70s and early 80s.

In minor news Bob Howry signed a 1 year deal with the Giants. If anyone really cares about this they are must be a Giant fan. Giving Howry his due he was very effective last year allowing only 18% of his inherited base runners to score. The strenght of the Giants is obvious with thier great young rotation. Also Brian Wilson did a very credible job as a rookie closer. Howry gives them a ueseful arm in the pen and a veteran presence.

I came across a rumor tonight that said the White Sox with the trade of Javier Vazquez are just getting started. Odd for a team coming off a division championship. Supposedly they have been in conversations with the Mets sending Bobby Jenks and Jermaine Dye for a package that would include Fernando Martinez and Aaron Heilman. We'll see if anything comes of this.

And finally I read the Indians may be a player for K-Rod. I'll write more about him and my feeling about the foolishness of spending 10 mil a year on a closer.

Javier Vazquez to the Braves

2008-12-02T20:13:00.000-08:00

The Braves acquired Javier Vazquez from the White Sox tonight along with Boone Logan for a package of 4 minor leaguers. Though no names haves been confirmed two players that have been mentioned going to the White Sox are Brent Lillibridge and Tyler Flowers. Lillibridge has been one of the Braves top prospects for a couple of years now but its looking more and more like he may be nothing more than a good utility infielder. Flowers is a young catcher who played this past season in A ball. And is coming off a great showing in the AFL. I think its a terrific move for the Braves. Vazquez is a guy that has thrown over 200 innings every year except one when he pitched 196. He has struck out over 200 the last two years in a row in the AL. Also from a financial aspect he is signed for 2 more years at a very reasonable 11.75 mil a year. When he is on he has very nasty stuff. Now even if the Braves don't get Jake Peavy they are better than there were yesterday.

Bad Karma

2008-12-02T14:17:00.000-08:00

With almost all things in baseball I'm a tradionalist. With the exception of the Wild Card I can't think of anything baseball has done to improve itself over the past 20 years. One aspect of modern sports that I don't like but can tolerate is corporate sponsorship of new stadiums. If calling a new stadium FYE ballpark and the team gets $15 million a year that they turn into a quality player that helps my team win I'll tolerate it. BUT!!!!!! with that being said calling the Mets new stadium Citi Field is playing with Karma. I fully support the idea to call the place Taxpayers field. The only thing I could think of thats close is when the park in Houston was called Enron Field. Being a Mets fan means being used to being disappointed. But we have been on the good side of two famous curses. 1969 When the black cat went in front of the Cubs dugout and 1986 when the Curse of the Bambino helped the ground ball go threw Bill Buckners legs. Okay I know I'm superstitious but calling the new Mets stadium Citi Field is like begging for a curse.

Sunday Bloody Sunday

2008-12-01T05:21:00.000-08:00

I can't believe the news today. Oh. I can't close my eyes And make it go away. Bono wrote those words back in 1983(do you believe its been 25 years). He could have easily descibed the historically bad performance of All Hail Stitch football team. What can you say when turnovers outnumber TDs 3-1? Even if the Texans tonight turn into a reincarnation of Doug Moe's Nuggetts from the 80s I may end by with 40-50 points for the week. Wow!!!!! D'Angelo Williams beat me singlehandedly. Congrats to Woogie 100 for the victory. And congats to Mangowranglers who keeps rolling along. The other games will be decided tomight. Thankfully my group only has one game left. before our version of the NIT. You know the college basketball tournament for teams not good enough for the real tourny.

Blood is thicker than.......?????

2008-11-29T18:36:00.000-08:00

Tomorrow All Hail Stitch takes thier 4 games losing streak into a titantic battle against Woogie(my brother). All my guys that are not hurt or suspended for various drug infractions will be ready (well kind of). So bro I hope your team is ready to go. This is a batlle that will certainly decide ......nothing. I'm sure Woogie 100 will be very happy when the calendar turns to 2009. Good luck bro.

Correction

2008-11-29T17:56:00.000-08:00

Braves spring traing tickets go on sale on Jan.10. Not Jan 11 as previously reported. They will probably be a little on the expensive side and go fast. Seeing a game at Disney is great. It is by far the nicest Spring Training stadium I've been to. My only criticism is the park is so much bigger than others. You get alot closer to the game in Kissimmee with the Astros or Lakeland for the Tigers. For anyone in Florida hopefully we can catch a game together. As for New Yorkers there is nothing like Florida in March.

Braves Spring Training

2008-11-28T15:26:00.000-08:00

For any Met fans in Central Florida the Mets will play the Braves @ Disney on March 17 and 21. Tix go on sale Jan. 11. Hopefully by that time Omar will have improved the Mets.

First Entry

2008-11-27T16:05:00.000-08:00

Happy Thanksgiving to all.

If anyone has anything to contribute feel free. This is certainly a work in progress.