During the beginning of the 70s TV Comedy All In The Family Archie and Edith were at the piano singing Those Were the Days. As students of history, baseball or otherwards we have a tendency to look back in history to find those good old days. But sometimes the good old days are now. About 2 weeks ago I was speaking with Howie about the teams we drafted. And I made the comment I thought both of our Shortstops(Stephen Drew and Troy Tulowitski) will have big years. This also got me thinking about the current crop of shortstops in the NL. If you look back into baseball history there has never been anything close to the talent and depth of shortstops. For the most part for the past 100 years the position of SS was manned by the guy who hit 220 but had a good glove. The first great shortstop Honus Wagner was said to be not only a great hitter but the best fielding shortstop of his time. If we look at the top 20 shortstops of all time as listed by Bill James in the historical abstract-PUBLISHED IN 2001!!!!! we see some guys most fans have never even heard of
1.Honus Wagner
2.Arky Vaughn
3.Cal Ripken
4.Robin Yount
5.Ernie Banks
6.Barry Larkin
7.Ozzie Smith
8.Joe Cronin
9.Alan Trammell
10.Pee Wee Reese
11.Luke Appling
12.Lou Boudreau
13.Luis Aparicio
14.George Davis
15.Jim Fregosi
16.Phil Rizzuto
17.Alex Rodriguez
18.Hughie Jennings
19.Maury Wills
20.Johnny Pesky
As I said this list was complied in 2001 which helps illustrate my point very well. If you look at this list half these guys had almost no power at all. Almost all were good fielders with Vaughn and Fregosi being the exceptions. Only 8 of the 20 had lifetime 300 averages. And only Banks,Ripken,Wagner and A-Rod were considered power hitters in their time, Knowing that these were the greatest of all time should help us appreciate what we now have even more. As we all know things started to change at shortstop with Cal Ripken. Then around the turn of the century we had the big 4 in the AL. Everyone knew just how good the combination of A-Rod,Nomar, Jeter and Tejada was. We were told of a golden era at shortstop and that was absolutely true. But how many people are telling us how lucky we are to being baseball fans in 2009 and seeing half a dozen guys all either in their primes of just approaching their best years. And they all play in the weaker league.
1.Hanley Ramirez-A true five tool guy who can beat with power, speed or average. His fielding is a bit erratic and this point in his career but all the physical tools to be a gold glover are there. And he keeps getting better and better.
2.Jose Reyes-Everyone knows what a prolific base stealer Reyes is but then his batting gets overlooked by some. This guy is a 200 hit a year machine. Now playing his games in Citi Field he should smash all post world war 2 records for triples. And he has double figure HR power. Another guy who is still improving.
3.Jimmy Rollins-Rollins already has an MVP award. And like the above two guys can beat you with both his legs and his bat. Rollins is also the heart and soul of the team that won the World Series. Pee Wee Reese, Phil Rizzuto and Derek Jeter got alot of credit for being leaders on championship teams why not J-Roll.
4.Stephen Drew-Quick name the SS who has the most extra base hits over the past two seasons? Wrong, its Stephen Drew. Another player who still hasn't reached his magic 27 season. I predict this guy will be a superstar. He started the season hitting 3rd.
5,Troy Tulowitski-Great rookie year. And he was hurt last year in the first half but came back with a strong second half. This guy is a outstanding hitter anywhere. But playing in Coors certainly does not hurt. This will only be his third season. He should be the cornerstone of the Rox going forward.
6.Rafael Furcal-This is the one guy who is not in the mid 20 age range. Furcal has been one of the steadiest most consistent performers for years. While his career numbers don't jump out at you they are very solid. A career 286 average which would put him in about the middle of the above top 20 list. 260 stolen bases is a terrific number that should easily go over 300 by the time he retires. And a career slugging average of 412 tells he is just not a singles hitter. At 31 he certainly has some more years in the tank.
7.JJ Hardy-Hardy is a guy who is notorious for having one great half and one awful half. If he can do it over 162 games he could be very dangerous.
So if you are watching a NL game today chances are you are seeing an above average SS. Twenty years when some of us are reaching retirement and other are reaching the primes of their lives we will all be able to say remember the good old days when we had HanRam, Reyes and J-Roll all in the same division. Its time someone other than me talks about this.
This weeks notes-This week saw two players hit for cycles. Orlando Hudson and Ian Kinsler. If did not know how rare it is to hit for the cycle but here is a couple of incredible stats. 1-O-Dogs cycle was the first one ever by a Dodger in Dodger Stadium. 2.Three teams San Diego,Florida and Tampa have never had a cycle. Kinsler ended up with 6 hits in his game.
Milestones-Gary Sheffield hit his 500 HR this week. It was the first time ever that a player hit his 500th as a pinch hitter. And on Monday night Paul Konerko and Jermaine Dye each hit their 300th Homer in back to back at bats.
Random Notes-I watched alot of the KC-Texas game last night. Zack Grienke was absolutely dominant. What struck me was in the ninth with him at just about 100 pitches he gave up a hit with one out. The score was 2-0 KC. Soria is warming up in the Royals pen. Trey Hillman comes out and leaves Grienke in. Wow it was like old school lets actually let a starting pitcher finish a game. And Grienke did complete his shutout the first complete game shutout of his career. And knowing he did it in Texas against that powerful Ranger lineup made it that much more of an incredible accomplishment.
Toronto is pounding the baseball and getting decent pitching after Roy Halladay. Toronto is now 9-4 with the best record in the AL. But I'm ready buying.
The Marlins keep winning. I'm sticking with 85 wins. Somehow I can't see the Fish averaging close to 7 runs a game for very much longer.
Brad Lidge blew a save last night his first in over a year as a Phillie. Last season Philys bullpen had a season for the ages. Some regression is to be expected.
Fantasy-Well after two weeks Howie is on top. I know he was happy with his team right after the draft and they have not disappointed. And if A-Rod comes back strong this could be a good season for the Northern Hirsch's. As for the rest of us the standings change on a nightly basis. Its kind of like a rugby scrum. Hopefully this week brings all of us good pitching and NO INJURIES(sorry Mike). Have a good week.
Sunday, April 19, 2009
Sunday, April 12, 2009
And Away We Go
The 2009 baseball season is now one week old. With one week in the books I figured I'd comment on some of the things I witnessed this week.
Fact or Fiction????-Today's installment deals with the Florida Marlins. The Fish are now 5-1 after taking 2 out of 3 from the Mets. I can just see it coming, at some point soon someone in the media will compare this team to the other team that plays here in Florida. So I may as well do it now. Last season the Rays proved you can greatly improve if you have two things. 1.Starting Pitching and 2..Very good team defense. As for the Marlins starters this group is for real. Nolasco. Johnson, Volstad and Sanchez have the potential to rival any teams top 4 starters. Josh Johnson today was simply outstanding. And you can make the argument that Ricky Nolasco was the second best pitcher in the second half of last season. There is no questioning any of these guys stuff. The potential pitfall comes from Johnson and Sanchez coming off major surgery's. As of now they both look as good or better than before the operations. Another potential red flag will be just how many innings these young studs can give the Fish. The max innings Josh Johnson ever threw in one season was 157 and Anibal Sanchez only went 114 innings. I've got to believe Fredi Gonzalez will be very careful with these guys. Which brings us to Florida's bullpen. This group won't scare too many people. Matt Lindstrom throws very hard but only seems to have that one pitch. When he gets a secondary pitch he could be lights out but he isn't quite there yet. The rest of the pen has guys like Kiko Calero, Leo Nunez and Dan Meyer. In Friday nights game Sanchez was fantastic giving up no runs over five innings. He was dominating a very good Met lineup. Then the bullpen gave up the lead twice including a run in the top of the 9th before they pulled it out in the bottom of the 9th. I fear this may be a pattern. As for the defense it should be improved from last season. Last season they were 2nd in the NL in most errors. With Jorge Cantu at first and Jeremy Hermeida moving to left it should upgrade the defense. In addition Cameron Maybin will cover alot of ground. But they are nowhere close to Tampa's defense. When I did my predictions I gave Florida third place and about 85 wins. After watching them this weekend I think that's about right.
Something also occurred in Friday nights Met-Marlin game I found very interesting. The Mets trailing by one in the 8th brought in JJ Putz to pitch. I applauded the move. The logic being if JJ can keep it a one run game than hopefully the bats could get at least one. As it happened the Mets tied up the game. So with a tie game in the bottom of the ninth I was hoping Jerry Manuel would have continued this aggressive style of using his new bullpen. But instead of putting in K-Rod in a tie game in the bottom of the ninth he chose to bring in Pedro Feliciano who got into trouble and then with the game on the line the last guy in the Mets pen Darren O'Day was on the mound to give up the game losing hit. Its easy to criticize strategy after it fails but this is a constant with me. If I'm in a tie game in the 9th I'm using my best pitcher. At that point in the game the bottom of the ninth was the most important point. If you use anything other than your best you may never get to use him. Especially with the way the Mets were scoring off Florida's bullpen. I hope Jerry Manuel doesn't use K-Rod as only a three out guy in a save situation. While it may boost his save totals it will undoubtedly cost the team games. And isn't it what that's what its all about???
Thankfully this week I only heard the term at this pace once this week. Its pointless to tell me in the third game of the season at this pace a guy will score 254 runs!!!!
This one drives me mad. You just see a score from a game in which you have a player on your fantasy team. The real team scores like 12 runs but your guy goes 0-5. This happened twice to me this week.
Finally one word about the start of our fantasy league. I'm REALLY!!!!! happy to see all the teams except one have already made moves. Hopefully everyone will be it it all season long. Thats what makes it alot of fun. And after the first week congrats to Daniel for leading the pack. If this continues I'll never hear the end of it.
Fact or Fiction????-Today's installment deals with the Florida Marlins. The Fish are now 5-1 after taking 2 out of 3 from the Mets. I can just see it coming, at some point soon someone in the media will compare this team to the other team that plays here in Florida. So I may as well do it now. Last season the Rays proved you can greatly improve if you have two things. 1.Starting Pitching and 2..Very good team defense. As for the Marlins starters this group is for real. Nolasco. Johnson, Volstad and Sanchez have the potential to rival any teams top 4 starters. Josh Johnson today was simply outstanding. And you can make the argument that Ricky Nolasco was the second best pitcher in the second half of last season. There is no questioning any of these guys stuff. The potential pitfall comes from Johnson and Sanchez coming off major surgery's. As of now they both look as good or better than before the operations. Another potential red flag will be just how many innings these young studs can give the Fish. The max innings Josh Johnson ever threw in one season was 157 and Anibal Sanchez only went 114 innings. I've got to believe Fredi Gonzalez will be very careful with these guys. Which brings us to Florida's bullpen. This group won't scare too many people. Matt Lindstrom throws very hard but only seems to have that one pitch. When he gets a secondary pitch he could be lights out but he isn't quite there yet. The rest of the pen has guys like Kiko Calero, Leo Nunez and Dan Meyer. In Friday nights game Sanchez was fantastic giving up no runs over five innings. He was dominating a very good Met lineup. Then the bullpen gave up the lead twice including a run in the top of the 9th before they pulled it out in the bottom of the 9th. I fear this may be a pattern. As for the defense it should be improved from last season. Last season they were 2nd in the NL in most errors. With Jorge Cantu at first and Jeremy Hermeida moving to left it should upgrade the defense. In addition Cameron Maybin will cover alot of ground. But they are nowhere close to Tampa's defense. When I did my predictions I gave Florida third place and about 85 wins. After watching them this weekend I think that's about right.
Something also occurred in Friday nights Met-Marlin game I found very interesting. The Mets trailing by one in the 8th brought in JJ Putz to pitch. I applauded the move. The logic being if JJ can keep it a one run game than hopefully the bats could get at least one. As it happened the Mets tied up the game. So with a tie game in the bottom of the ninth I was hoping Jerry Manuel would have continued this aggressive style of using his new bullpen. But instead of putting in K-Rod in a tie game in the bottom of the ninth he chose to bring in Pedro Feliciano who got into trouble and then with the game on the line the last guy in the Mets pen Darren O'Day was on the mound to give up the game losing hit. Its easy to criticize strategy after it fails but this is a constant with me. If I'm in a tie game in the 9th I'm using my best pitcher. At that point in the game the bottom of the ninth was the most important point. If you use anything other than your best you may never get to use him. Especially with the way the Mets were scoring off Florida's bullpen. I hope Jerry Manuel doesn't use K-Rod as only a three out guy in a save situation. While it may boost his save totals it will undoubtedly cost the team games. And isn't it what that's what its all about???
Thankfully this week I only heard the term at this pace once this week. Its pointless to tell me in the third game of the season at this pace a guy will score 254 runs!!!!
This one drives me mad. You just see a score from a game in which you have a player on your fantasy team. The real team scores like 12 runs but your guy goes 0-5. This happened twice to me this week.
Finally one word about the start of our fantasy league. I'm REALLY!!!!! happy to see all the teams except one have already made moves. Hopefully everyone will be it it all season long. Thats what makes it alot of fun. And after the first week congrats to Daniel for leading the pack. If this continues I'll never hear the end of it.
Thursday, April 9, 2009
AL Predictions
Its time to tackle the junior circuit. While its widely accepted that the AL is the tougher of the two leagues most of the big stars in MLB now seem to reside in the NL. In our draft 6 of the first 7 players were taken from the NL. With that being said its still much more difficult to get thought an AL lineup than one from the senior circuit. But I am curious to see if during inter league play the results won't be as lopsided as previous years.
AL EAST
1.Red Sox
2.Rays
3.Yankees
4.Blue Jays
5.Orioles
The best three teams in the AL all reside in this division. Its a shame that one of them will have to miss the playoffs. I believe the Red Sox have the best team in baseball. And with the possibility of a healthy John Smoltz and some point this season they will be that much better. The Rays should have another strong season. Their schedule in April is absolutely brutal. If they are hanging around when April turns to May watch out. The Yankees spent a zillion dollars to fix the pitching but three things would concern me 1.AJ Burnett can go down at anytime 2.The defense is way below average 3.They have alot of older players and older players get hurt. The Jays starting staff which was so good last year was decimated by injuries and free agent defections. Finally the Os will probably play good baseball for the first half like they usually do then fall apart in the second half. They have a few kids in the high minors ready to come up and at least make things interesting.
AL Central
1.Twins
2.Indians
3.Royals
4.Tigers
5.White Sox
This should be the closest division from top to bottom. You make make an argument for each team and then point out each teams faults. If pitching and defense win games than Minnesota is the best bet. I really like the Twins pitching, both starters and pen. The question will be can they score enough runs. The Tribe should not have much problems scoring runs its preventing them that may by the problem. I don't like their starting pitchers at all. Luckily the bullpen is deep because they will get alot of work. KC is the up and coming team in the division. Its been a very long time since I could have said that. Meche and Grienke are a very under rated duo. And they should score enough runs to earn a winning record. The Tigers went for broke last year and it did not pay off. The starters broke down and they have an awful defensive team. The talk of 1000 runs is now nothing but a memory. Finally the White Sox are in rebuilding mode. I'm expecting them to move their veterans like Jermaine Dye and Paul Konerko before the trading deadline.
AL West
1.Angels
2.Rangers
3.As
4.Mariners
The short stack is a very mediocre group. I'm picking the Angels but have no faith in the selection. They overachieved to 100 wins last year. The key will be 1.when Lackey,Santana and Escobar return 2.can they score enough runs without Mark Teixeira. I can see them only winning about 85 this season. Texas will pound people. They have a fantastic lineup. If they get even league average pitching they can pull off a surprise. The As are a very interesting team. with Trevor Cahill and Brett Anderson starting in the bigs we are seeing the future. This duo is very good. I expect the As to move Matt Holliday at the deadline for more prospects. This team is a year away but they are positioned to be good for years to come with a very small payroll. Haven't we seen this before???? As for the Ms they are going the Rays route with rebuilding their defense first. They have have the best defensive outfield in all of baseball. But unfortunately everything else lags behind.
AL Playoffs
Boton over Minnesota
Tampa over Angels
ALCS
Boston over Tampa
AL MVP-Josh Hamilton-Last year was what baseball people were expecting from this guy for years now. Like I said Texas will score often and he should have monster numbers. Runners Up-Miguel Cabrera and Nick Markakis
AL Cy Young-Joakim Soria-I thought long and hard about this and came to the conclusion that I can't see any AL Starters being that dominant. The Royals will play alot of close games and Soria should be lights out. Runners Up-Josh Beckett and Felix Hernandez
AL ROY-Travis Snider-This has the potential to be one of the best rookies classes in many years. Everyone knows David Price and Matt Wieters. I imagine their stay in the minors will be very short. Oaklands pitchers are also extremely talented. But I'm going with Travis Snider. This guy is very young but everyone says he has professional hitters written all over him. Like Jordan Schaffer he will start the season hitting at the bottom of the order but won't stay there long.
AL EAST
1.Red Sox
2.Rays
3.Yankees
4.Blue Jays
5.Orioles
The best three teams in the AL all reside in this division. Its a shame that one of them will have to miss the playoffs. I believe the Red Sox have the best team in baseball. And with the possibility of a healthy John Smoltz and some point this season they will be that much better. The Rays should have another strong season. Their schedule in April is absolutely brutal. If they are hanging around when April turns to May watch out. The Yankees spent a zillion dollars to fix the pitching but three things would concern me 1.AJ Burnett can go down at anytime 2.The defense is way below average 3.They have alot of older players and older players get hurt. The Jays starting staff which was so good last year was decimated by injuries and free agent defections. Finally the Os will probably play good baseball for the first half like they usually do then fall apart in the second half. They have a few kids in the high minors ready to come up and at least make things interesting.
AL Central
1.Twins
2.Indians
3.Royals
4.Tigers
5.White Sox
This should be the closest division from top to bottom. You make make an argument for each team and then point out each teams faults. If pitching and defense win games than Minnesota is the best bet. I really like the Twins pitching, both starters and pen. The question will be can they score enough runs. The Tribe should not have much problems scoring runs its preventing them that may by the problem. I don't like their starting pitchers at all. Luckily the bullpen is deep because they will get alot of work. KC is the up and coming team in the division. Its been a very long time since I could have said that. Meche and Grienke are a very under rated duo. And they should score enough runs to earn a winning record. The Tigers went for broke last year and it did not pay off. The starters broke down and they have an awful defensive team. The talk of 1000 runs is now nothing but a memory. Finally the White Sox are in rebuilding mode. I'm expecting them to move their veterans like Jermaine Dye and Paul Konerko before the trading deadline.
AL West
1.Angels
2.Rangers
3.As
4.Mariners
The short stack is a very mediocre group. I'm picking the Angels but have no faith in the selection. They overachieved to 100 wins last year. The key will be 1.when Lackey,Santana and Escobar return 2.can they score enough runs without Mark Teixeira. I can see them only winning about 85 this season. Texas will pound people. They have a fantastic lineup. If they get even league average pitching they can pull off a surprise. The As are a very interesting team. with Trevor Cahill and Brett Anderson starting in the bigs we are seeing the future. This duo is very good. I expect the As to move Matt Holliday at the deadline for more prospects. This team is a year away but they are positioned to be good for years to come with a very small payroll. Haven't we seen this before???? As for the Ms they are going the Rays route with rebuilding their defense first. They have have the best defensive outfield in all of baseball. But unfortunately everything else lags behind.
AL Playoffs
Boton over Minnesota
Tampa over Angels
ALCS
Boston over Tampa
AL MVP-Josh Hamilton-Last year was what baseball people were expecting from this guy for years now. Like I said Texas will score often and he should have monster numbers. Runners Up-Miguel Cabrera and Nick Markakis
AL Cy Young-Joakim Soria-I thought long and hard about this and came to the conclusion that I can't see any AL Starters being that dominant. The Royals will play alot of close games and Soria should be lights out. Runners Up-Josh Beckett and Felix Hernandez
AL ROY-Travis Snider-This has the potential to be one of the best rookies classes in many years. Everyone knows David Price and Matt Wieters. I imagine their stay in the minors will be very short. Oaklands pitchers are also extremely talented. But I'm going with Travis Snider. This guy is very young but everyone says he has professional hitters written all over him. Like Jordan Schaffer he will start the season hitting at the bottom of the order but won't stay there long.
Monday, April 6, 2009
NL Predictions
Unfortunately life has gotten in the way of writing the past few weeks. But with the season upon us I've decided to try to have something new up every Monday and Thursday. Since everyone is currently making predictions I figured I 'll make mine. And I'm sure seven months from now I'll be asking myself what were you possibly thinking. One quick note before the predictions these are made with my head and not my heart.
NL East-By far the best division in the NL. While everyone is talking about the Mets and Phils both the Marlins and the Braves will both be very much improved. As for Washington I can't see any situation where they don't finish in the cellar.
1.Mets
2.Phils
3.Marlins
4.Braves
5.Nats
I see the Mets winning about 92 games and not blowing it this year. After a very small sampling it appears Citi Field will be a very good pitchers park with Homers being depressed even more than Shea. But with that big outfield BAs should go up. Opposing teams will have to play their fastest outfielders there. I would not be stunned if the Mets produce their first batting champion. The World Champs should win about 88. They have a prolific lineup that will score alot of runs. Last season their bullpen wasn't just good it was historically good. A drop off is normal. The Marlins will be one of the interesting stories of 2009. They have a terrific collection of young pitchers and some young hitters that are probably 1 to 2 years away. All being led by one of the games best players in Han Ram. Let give them 85 wins. Atlanta had a good offseason. Derek Lowe was fantastic last night. Javy Vazquez going to the weaker league should bounce back away from the Cell. Getting Garrett Anderson for little more than a song was a terrific pickup. And watch Jordan Schaffer he may end up being NL ROY. I'll give them 83 wins. The Nats are over matched in every phase. Their young players are walking time bombs. Something nice??? I like Ryan Zimmerman. 65 Wins
NL Central
This should be the most lopsided division in all of baseball. Its the Cubs and everyone else. Every other team in the division has significant holes.
1.Cubs
2.Brewers
3.Reds
4.Cards
5.Astros
6.Pirates
The Cubbies have the most complete team in the NL. They hit, pitch and catch better than anyone. And they should be hungry after last season. Besides how can I pick against any team with Rich Harden? 97 wins. Places 2.3 and 4 could go in any order. I like Milwaukee's lineup but the starters have alot of questions. Though I believe Gallardo may be in for a nice year. Cincy is the team on the rise in the division. They take a big step forward this year and seriously contend next year. St. Louis needs everything to fall into place. IF Chris Carpenter stays healthy the starters will be pretty good. They will need a few players to step up and help Albert Pujols. Those three teams should all have about 84 wins. Houston's record was not indicative of their 2008 season. Based on runs scored and runs given up they over achieved more than any team in MLB. The middle of the lineup is still potent. But after Oswalt and Wandy Rodriguez the starters are a mess. 75 wins maybe. The Bucs seems finally to be on the right track. They seem to be committed to building with kids. The pitching staff is not bad. 2009 will be a long year but at least they are going in the right direction. 70 wins.
NL West
This should be a interesting race between LA and Arizona. With the Giants having the best pitching in the division. Colorado is in full rebuilding mode. With the Padres will probably be the worst team in the NL this year. I expect Jake Peavy traded by June 1.
1.Diamondbacks
2.Dodgers
3.Giants
4.Rockies
5.Padres
Arizona is ready to win now. The lineup is loaded with players just about reaching their prime with experience. And no combination of front line starters are more dependable than Brandon Webb and Dan Haren. 94 wins and a division title for the Snakes. The defending NL West champs should be close this year. Will Manny be the monster we saw last year for 162 games? Probably not. The team is solid. And should be in it all year long. 88 wins and a date with the Phils for a wild card berth. The Giants have scarry good pitching. Lincecum, Cain, Zito, Sanchez and Johnson. But will they score any runs? They need to get a bat at the trading deadline. Lets give them 81 wins. Colorado is rebuilding. The cornerstones are already their with Tulo, Ianetta Jimenez. I'd bet Atkins gets moved for more prospects by the trading deadline. They have a collection of terrific prospects that are coming. Watch Dexter Fowler this year. 75 wins. Finally San Diego fans will suffer a very long year. The big question for me is will they lose 100. Yep 62-100.
Playoffs-LA over Phily in a wild card tie breaker
Cubs over LA-Revenge is sweet
Mets over Arizona-The Mets always seem to well against Arizona pitchers
Cubs over Mets-Hopefully I'm wrong!!!!!
NL MVP-David Wright- Citi Field will take about 5 HRs away from him but add 20 pts to his batting average. Also I could see the Mets running more this year. Runners Up, Albert Pujols and Jose Reyes
NL Cy Young-Johan Santana- About the only way to score off Johan is to hit Homers off him and alot of those Homers at Shea will not go out of Citi Field. If he could only learn to pitch in April. Runners Up-Brandon Webb and Dan Haren
NL ROY-Jordan Schaffer-It seems all the good rookies will be in the AL. Schaffer should be the real deal. He will start the season at the bottom of the Braves order with little expectations and then rise in that order as the season progresses. Runner Up-Jason Motte
So now its your turn. I don't want to be the only one to stick my neck out. Comment on this piece and leave YOUR predictions. I'll do the AL on Thursday.
NL East-By far the best division in the NL. While everyone is talking about the Mets and Phils both the Marlins and the Braves will both be very much improved. As for Washington I can't see any situation where they don't finish in the cellar.
1.Mets
2.Phils
3.Marlins
4.Braves
5.Nats
I see the Mets winning about 92 games and not blowing it this year. After a very small sampling it appears Citi Field will be a very good pitchers park with Homers being depressed even more than Shea. But with that big outfield BAs should go up. Opposing teams will have to play their fastest outfielders there. I would not be stunned if the Mets produce their first batting champion. The World Champs should win about 88. They have a prolific lineup that will score alot of runs. Last season their bullpen wasn't just good it was historically good. A drop off is normal. The Marlins will be one of the interesting stories of 2009. They have a terrific collection of young pitchers and some young hitters that are probably 1 to 2 years away. All being led by one of the games best players in Han Ram. Let give them 85 wins. Atlanta had a good offseason. Derek Lowe was fantastic last night. Javy Vazquez going to the weaker league should bounce back away from the Cell. Getting Garrett Anderson for little more than a song was a terrific pickup. And watch Jordan Schaffer he may end up being NL ROY. I'll give them 83 wins. The Nats are over matched in every phase. Their young players are walking time bombs. Something nice??? I like Ryan Zimmerman. 65 Wins
NL Central
This should be the most lopsided division in all of baseball. Its the Cubs and everyone else. Every other team in the division has significant holes.
1.Cubs
2.Brewers
3.Reds
4.Cards
5.Astros
6.Pirates
The Cubbies have the most complete team in the NL. They hit, pitch and catch better than anyone. And they should be hungry after last season. Besides how can I pick against any team with Rich Harden? 97 wins. Places 2.3 and 4 could go in any order. I like Milwaukee's lineup but the starters have alot of questions. Though I believe Gallardo may be in for a nice year. Cincy is the team on the rise in the division. They take a big step forward this year and seriously contend next year. St. Louis needs everything to fall into place. IF Chris Carpenter stays healthy the starters will be pretty good. They will need a few players to step up and help Albert Pujols. Those three teams should all have about 84 wins. Houston's record was not indicative of their 2008 season. Based on runs scored and runs given up they over achieved more than any team in MLB. The middle of the lineup is still potent. But after Oswalt and Wandy Rodriguez the starters are a mess. 75 wins maybe. The Bucs seems finally to be on the right track. They seem to be committed to building with kids. The pitching staff is not bad. 2009 will be a long year but at least they are going in the right direction. 70 wins.
NL West
This should be a interesting race between LA and Arizona. With the Giants having the best pitching in the division. Colorado is in full rebuilding mode. With the Padres will probably be the worst team in the NL this year. I expect Jake Peavy traded by June 1.
1.Diamondbacks
2.Dodgers
3.Giants
4.Rockies
5.Padres
Arizona is ready to win now. The lineup is loaded with players just about reaching their prime with experience. And no combination of front line starters are more dependable than Brandon Webb and Dan Haren. 94 wins and a division title for the Snakes. The defending NL West champs should be close this year. Will Manny be the monster we saw last year for 162 games? Probably not. The team is solid. And should be in it all year long. 88 wins and a date with the Phils for a wild card berth. The Giants have scarry good pitching. Lincecum, Cain, Zito, Sanchez and Johnson. But will they score any runs? They need to get a bat at the trading deadline. Lets give them 81 wins. Colorado is rebuilding. The cornerstones are already their with Tulo, Ianetta Jimenez. I'd bet Atkins gets moved for more prospects by the trading deadline. They have a collection of terrific prospects that are coming. Watch Dexter Fowler this year. 75 wins. Finally San Diego fans will suffer a very long year. The big question for me is will they lose 100. Yep 62-100.
Playoffs-LA over Phily in a wild card tie breaker
Cubs over LA-Revenge is sweet
Mets over Arizona-The Mets always seem to well against Arizona pitchers
Cubs over Mets-Hopefully I'm wrong!!!!!
NL MVP-David Wright- Citi Field will take about 5 HRs away from him but add 20 pts to his batting average. Also I could see the Mets running more this year. Runners Up, Albert Pujols and Jose Reyes
NL Cy Young-Johan Santana- About the only way to score off Johan is to hit Homers off him and alot of those Homers at Shea will not go out of Citi Field. If he could only learn to pitch in April. Runners Up-Brandon Webb and Dan Haren
NL ROY-Jordan Schaffer-It seems all the good rookies will be in the AL. Schaffer should be the real deal. He will start the season at the bottom of the Braves order with little expectations and then rise in that order as the season progresses. Runner Up-Jason Motte
So now its your turn. I don't want to be the only one to stick my neck out. Comment on this piece and leave YOUR predictions. I'll do the AL on Thursday.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
