Saturday, January 31, 2009

How Do You Spell Relief Part 2

Yesterday I wrote about my frustration regarding the way teams use their bullpens in 2009. I won't be redundant except to say I firmly believe teams lose games every year because of irrational use of relief pitchers. So how did we get to this point of insanity? Like any good student of history can tell you we can't know where we are going until we know where we've been. I took some time yesterday reviewing the saves leaders from 1900 to the present. I'm going to break it down into 5 eras. I'll talk about bullpen usage in that era and quote some numbers you might find interesting.

1900-1925-This is the era where starting pitchers were expected to finish what they started. If the starter did not go the distance there was a problem. There were a couple of reasons for this. 1.Rosters were much smaller-the typical team only carried less players than they do today 2.Since teams had less players the relievers were either starters who did not start that day or if the team was way behind they used the guys who were not good enough to start. There was no rotation like we know today.3.Also pitchers in the early 20th century as a rule were much better hitters than later. Most pitchers were as good hitters as the 2 or 3 bench players teams used. So for the above reason saves were relatively rare events. 4.The term pitch count was unheard of for another 80 years. How come I can't imagine John McGraw going out to Christy Mathewson and saying your pitch count is up to 120 its time to come out. Among the league leaders in saves during this era were HOFers Ed Walsh, 3 Finger Brown, Cy Young and Iron Joe McGinnity who led the league 3 times. I went through each decade and figured out the average amount of saves the league leader had.

1900-09 4.5 Frank Arellanes 8

1910-19 7.1 Chief Bender and Three Finger Brown 13 As a foot note when both of these pitchers saved 13 games they each won 21 the same season.


1925-1949-While starting pitchers were still expected to pitch complete games the idea of relieve pitchers was starting to take shape. HOF pitchers only led the league in saves twice after 1931. Carl Hubbell in 1934 with 8 and Dizzy Dean in 1936 with 11. A few interesting things jump out during that era 1.In the 12 year period between 1923-34 the Washington Senators had the league leader in saves 9 years. Firpo Mayberry 5x, Jack Russell 2x, Alan Russell 1x and Garland Braxton once. None of the above pitchers are household names. During this period the Senators only won one pennant in 1924 and were mediocre for the rest of the time. Also oddly enough over the 12 years they had 4 managers. I'd love to know who in the Senator organization had this idea. Also during this period we see the first Yankee relief star, Johnny Murphy.From 1938-42 Murphy led the AL in saves 4 out of 5 years. While he must have had more opportunities than any one else its telling the best team in baseball decided to devote someone full time to finish games. With that said his saves totals for those 4 years were 11,19,15 and 11. Hardly eye popping numbers today.

1920-29 8.0 Firpo Mayberry 22

1930-39 10.2 Johnny Murphy 19

1940-49 13.5 Joe Page 27

1950-1975-This is the era when we started to see every team see the value of having 1 or 2 relieve specialists. By the 60s these guys were very valued members of the team. Above you see Joe Page has 27 saves for the Yankeees in 1949 but I carefully chose 1950 to start this era because in 1950 Jim Konstanty of the Whiz Kids Phillies had the best year of any releiver in history up to that point. Konstanty won MVP for his work in the pennant winning year. He won 16 games, saved 22 and finished an amazing 62 games. His season must have revolutionized baseball. During this era some specialists especially in the NL started popping up like Al Brazie of the Cards, Clem Labine of the Dodgers, Roy Face of the Pirates and Phil Regan of the Cubs. All these guys led the NL in saves twice. What I found a bit odd is no pitcher during the 60s in the AL led the league in saves more than once. But as we reached the end of this era you needed over 30 saves to lead the league. As John Hiller had 38 for the Tigers in 1973 and Sparky Lyle had 35 in 1972 for the Yankees.

1950-59 17.8 Ellis Kinder 27

1960-69 25.5 Ron Perranowski 31

1970-79 30.6 John Hiller 38



1975-1990-To me this is the golden age of relievers. While guys did not rack up 50 save seasons they were used correctly. Remember the concept of fireman. Your best relieve pitcher comes in to "put out a fire" Think back to the 70s. The Yankees never waited until the 9th inning to put in Sparky Lyle. Goose Gossage did not become a 3 out pitchers until the 90s. It was nothing for guys like Lyle, Sutter, Gossage, McGraw,Fingers and Quizenberry to pitch 2 or 3 innings. That was the norm not the exception. These guys were used MUCH more effectively than today. Managers did not manage by who would be in the game in a save situation. They managed with 1 over laying thought which was how can I best win this game. And the theory that relief pitchers should not throw too many innings is proven false as many firemen from the 70s had very long careers. Some pitching into their 40s. For those of us older than 20 think back to your childhood can you imagine managers not using their best in a tie game. The thought would be absurd. Mike Marshall in LA used to come in at all points late in the game. And I can remember whoever was managing the Mets never waited until the 9th to bring in Tug McGraw.

1980-89 37.4 Dan Qizenberry and Dennis Eckersley 45




1990-Present-While I can't be certain I believe Tony LaRussa is to blame for the current state of relievers. I think he turned Dennis Eckersley from a fireman to a closer. And like most ideas that seem good at the time they tend to get perverted over time. Eckersley was successful as a closer. But he also would have been successful if he was used like the firemen of the 70s. Eck was just lights out. By the way oddly enough thought the 80s no AL pitcher lead the league in saves more than once. In part 3 I'll talk alot more about where we are now. But rest assured somewhere between 1989 and now things have gone horrible wrong. Save numbers are up. But logic, common sense and good baseball are down.


1990-89 44.0 Bobby Thigpen 57

2000-08 46.3 Francisco Rodriguez 62

Friday, January 30, 2009

How Do You Spell Relief Part 1

How often has this happened to you? Your watching a game and a manger does something that you just don't get. If you are like me you swear at the TV and wish once and for all they would start to manager with logic instead of blindly following "the book". This happens to me with the way teams manage their bullpen more than any other phase of the game. If you think logically about it the current use of bullpens defy logic. Just so we are all on the same page let me show you what I'm talking about. Every team has a closer. This guy is suppose to be the teams best relief pitcher. BUT you only bring him in if you are ahead in the 9th inning by 1-3 runs. Think about this this valuable commodities role is defined by a statistic!!! And now things are getting even worse. Its not bad enough where you have a closer now we need a setup man to only pitch the 8th. It makes me want to scream!!! Here is a hypothitical scenario. The Mets are playing Philadelphia. they are winning 4-3 in the 6th. The Phils have 1 out and the bases loaded. John Maine the starter has run out of gas. Jerry Manual sees Chase Utley and Ryan Howard coming up. So what does he do? He brings in Pedro Feliciano to pitch to the lefties right. But does this make any sense? Feliciano is either the 3rd or 4th best reliever the Mets have. In this situation with the game on the line WHY should the Mets bring in anything but thier best. If I'm Manual I'm bringing in K-Rod right there and then. I want my best trying to preserve the lead. Not my third best. When K-Rod gets Utley and Howard out he could go one more inning then give the ball to Putz. In other words the most critical part of most games does not happen in the ninth inning. It occurs at some point leading up to the ninth. This point can not be overstated. Baseball is a game of 9 innings all of them having the same value. You don't get extra runs by scoring in the 9th. Many more games are lost in the 6th, 7th and 8th by manger being stubborn than are saved in the 9th by saving their best to only get the last three outs How critical is it to save your best to only get 3 outs when your up by 2 or 3. It drives me nuts why managers won't put in their best guy if the score is tied. Though I did see it every now and then last year. Most teams would rather put in option 3 or 4 in a tied game. I firmly believe ALL teams lose games every year by screwing up how to properly use the pen. I don't know who was the genius who created the closer role but they did smart baseball a huge disservice. In addition whats absolutely drives me nuts is EVERY team does this more or less. God Bless Joe Madden for how he used he Rays relievers after Percival got injured. He probably did the best job or any manger last year handling his pen. Also kudos to Terry Francona for letting Johnathan Papelbon pitch in the 8th inning. So how did we get to this point of madness and where are we going? Thats what the next two entries in this series will be about. Part 2 will be a history of bullpen uses. And part 3 will be a look at bullpen usage in 2009. As usual comments are welcomed more than you know.

Wednesday, January 28, 2009

Garland to D-Backs

Jon Garland signed a 1 year deal for over 6 mil to pitch for Arizona. First things first. I don't like Jon Garland. Its nothing personal I'm sure he's a nice guy. Its the kind of pitcher Garland is that I don't like. That is the soft tossing hurler who doesn't strike out many hitters. The margin for error for guys like Garland is much smaller than guys who strikeout alot of hitters. Garland can be a poster child for why as a fan you can't trust win-loss record as a way be evaluate pitchers. Since 2002 Garland has a record of 96-74. Pretty good huh? Now lets look a little deeper. In the past three years he is only 56/98 in quality starts for a very average 57%. In 7 out of the past 8 years his ERA was over 4.22. For his career he only had 1 season when his WHIP was under 1.3. Statistical studies have consistently showed if you don't average 5 Ks per 9 innings its very tough to win on a consistent basis. In my humble opinion he has let a charmed life who may not be able to continue his winning ways. For the D-Backs to invest 6 million dollars they must have really wanted him. My knowledge of Arizona is probably better than it should be. I admit I stayed up way past my bed time watching them so I can hear Mark Grace announce games. As of today Arizona is as good as any one in the worst division in baseball. Webb and Haren are fantastic. Doug Davis is solid when cancer free. The back of the rotation with Max Scherzer and Yusmeiro Petit are talented but questionable. So I can see why Josh Byrnes wanted to get Garland. I don't think its a great move but its understandable. The key to Arizona season will be how their young hitters mature. If the combination of Justin Upton, Stephen Drew, Connor Jackson and Mark Reynolds hit like they are capable they should contend Jon Garland or not.

Monday, January 26, 2009

Player For Sale-CHEAP

When John Steinbeck wrote the Winter of Discontent he did not have baseball in mind. But the way this winter is playing out he might as well. With about three weeks until pitchers and catchers there are still a lot of quality free agents still unsigned. Except for the collusion years baseball has seen nothing like this. I remember early in this off season when some baseball people said the sluggish economy will not effect baseball. Well they could not have been more wrong. While the Yankees spend huge dollars the rest of the league has scaled back spending. Except for the long term contracts given to young players buying out arbitration years like the one given to Zack Grienke today veterans are finding the free agent waters very disappointing. I'm certain players will begin to sign in mass in the next week or so. But since really nothing has happened what I thought I'd do is list one player from each position and a couple of pitchers and give them to the club that makes the most sense. THESE ARE NOT PREDICTIONS ON WHERE I THINK THEY ARE GOING!!!!!!!!!! Only a fun little exercise on if it was a perfect world. And as we all know the world is rarely perfect.

C-Jason Veritek-This is easy. Veritek belongs on the Red Sox. He is the heart and soul of that team. Even though he only hit 220 last year he is more valuable to them than any other team. I'd be stunned if he ends up anywhere else.

1B-Kevin Millar-Millar belongs with the Angels. With Tex in New York Kendry Morales is the starter. Millar would give the Angels depth if Morales does not produce. Millar is also a great locker room guy.

2B-Orlando Hudson-O-Dog belongs on the Mets. I know the problems about no one wanting to take Castillo's contract but the Mets are in a position where they should not have to worry about a extra couple of million in payroll. Either release Castillo or keep him for pinch running or depth. Hudson saves runs on D and like Millar is a great clubhouse guy. Something the Mets really need.

SS-Orlando Cabrera-Cabrera goes to the Reds. If we learned anything from 2008 if you have very good starting pitching and good defense improvements are possible. The Reds have Volquez, Cueto, Harang, Arroyo and Bailey. Also a young lineup. Cabrera would plug up their biggest hole.

3B-Joe Crede-I'm sending Crede to Minnesota. The Twins have no real 3rd baseman. Last year they got by with a mix and match of Buscher, Lamb and Harris. Crede would add power and if he still is not healthy at least the Twins can go back to the trio I mentioned.

OF-Manny Ramirez-This one is also easy. Manny belongs with the Dodgers. While LA has some excellent young pitching the offense is not very threatening without Manny. With Manny the Dodgers are probably the favorites in the NL West. Besides doesn't Manny belong in LA??

OF-Adam Dunn-Dunn goes to the Nats. Washington only hit 117 HRs last year. And Nats park looks to be a good hitters park. Dunn will hit his usual 40 and probably more.

OF-Bobby Abreu-Abreu goes to the Giants. With the improvements the Giants have made all they need is more offense to compete. Since Manny's staying in LA Abreu is the best plan B. With that rotation and a little more run scoring contention is not that far fetched.

SP-Oliver Perez-The Mets need him. Signing Freddie Garcia and Tim Redding does nothing to solve the Mets need for a front line starter. Perez is Jekyll and Hyde and I don't think the Mets should go beyond 3 years but unfortunately if they are going to contend they need to upgrade the starting rotation

SP-Ben Sheets-Sheets goes to Texas. The Rangers had the worst staff in baseball. The team president Nolan Ryan is probably the teams best pitcher now. They could afford to take a risk with Sheet's health because they have nothing better. Besides Sheets is from Texas and we've seen this off season how that has affected players decisions.

By the way for any new readers WELCOME!!!!!!!! I hope you enjoy the blog. I can't stress enough how much I love comments from people. So I urge you guys to comment on anything you need.

Friday, January 23, 2009

So Long Jeff

With a total lack of interesting things going on on the Hot Stove I figured I spend some time reviewing the career of recently retired 2nd baseman Jeff Kent. Like I said in the past when I grow up I'd love to be a baseball historian. I'm sure every era in baseball history had players like Kent that will be appreciated more throught the prism of history than when they played. Kent was never a favorite with the press because he never said very much. Also playing on the west coast for most of his career probably hurt his national exposure. To me the most striking stat of his was Kent hit 351HRs in his career. Thats a full 74 more than the second place player at his position, Ryne Sandberg. I don't have stats in front of me but I don't know if any other player has hit 20% more dingers than anyone else at his position. Kent drove in over 1500 runs averaging over 100 RBIs over 162 games. He made the All Star team 5 times and captured the 2000 MVP. In addition something to think about is Kent played almost his entire career in very difficult hitting parks, AT&T, Shea and Dodger Stadiums. Baseball Reference lists a players top comp and oddly enough between age 30-33 Kent's top comp every year was Joe Gordan the recently voted in HOF. His detractors will point to his below average defense at 2nd. Thats fair. And all his big years were a direct product of hitting after Barry Bonds. The bottom line is even if he saw alot of pitches to hit he had to hit them. I could honestly say watching him all those years I never thought he was HOF material. But the body of work may say otherwise. Definitely not a first ballot but maybe down the road. So where does he rank with the all time second baseman here is my list of the top 10 second baseman ever

1.Rogers Hornsby-The guy averaged over 400 over 5 years.

2.Joe Morgan-Best 2nd baseman I ever saw. Did it all. Pompous announcer

3.Eddie Collins-Cornerstone of $100,000 infield of A's dynasty of 1911-14 And NOT one of the dirty Black Sox

4.Nap Lajoie-338 career average. At the turn of the century the Indians were called the Naps after him.

5.Jackie Robinson-His career numbers would have been even better if he was given the chance earlier.

6.Rod Carew-A 328 career hitter with 7 career batting titles. Not a great fielder but he sure could hit.

7.Ryne Sandberg-Known for his bat but earned 9 Gold Gloves. He even stole over 50 bases one year

8.Charlie Gehringer-Part of the G-Men with the Tigers in the 30s with Hank Greenberg and Goose Goslin. Think Killer B's with Gehringer being much better than Biggio.

9.Fankie Frisch-Player/Manager of the Gas House Gang Cards of 1934. Played on 8 Pennant Winners

10.Roberto Alomar/Joe Gordan/Bobby Doerr/Jeff Kent-I know its cheating. Take your pick.

I believe Chase Utley has a very good shot at this list if he stays healthy.

As always your thoughts and comments are not only welcomed they are STRONGLY encouraged.

Monday, January 19, 2009

Do You Feel Lucky???

The Hot Stove League these last few days have been as cold as a Florida night(stop laughing people from New York. All I know is I was chilly walking around EPCOT the other night). About the only pieces of news have been contract extensions and the World Baseball Classic. Two totally different topics, right? No wrong. Both topics are all about risk. Lets take contract extensions first. I don't know who or when started the trend of giving players who are not eligible for arbitration or free agency long term deals. Since the average raise in arbitration is 120% it makes sense to buy those years out. And recently teams are buying out the first couple of years of free agency. We saw this in the past week with Kevin Youkliss and Nick Markakis. The players make more in those first couple of years and have financial stability in case of injury or if something goes wrong. And the teams get players for below market value in the back part of their deals. The Mets deal with Jose Reyes and David Wright was a fantastic deal. The Rays really took a chance when they signed Evan Longoria to one of these kind of deals after only 1 week in the bigs. For hitters with a stable personality and a history of durability these contracts are truly a win-win situation. Teams can actually keep the key young players together. About the only losers are free agents who are looking for a huge payday. If Kevin Youkliss is averaging about 10 mil per. Guys like Bobby Abreu and Adam Dunn may now have to settle for 1 year contracts. Its no accident most of these deals are given to hitters. The Phils signed Cole Hamels to a 3 year deal for about 20.5 mil. They bought out his arbitration years. The Phils were smart only going 3 years. Pitchers in general get injured. Its very rare for pitchers not to go on the DL in a three year span. Also in a young pitcher we have found out its critically important for long term success to limit the amount of innings a young pitcher throws. So lets take Hamels as an example. He already has spent time on the DL 2 out of the past 3 years. So while it makes sense to give Markakis six years you'd NEVER give 6 years to a pitcher. For those of us old enough remember Doc Gooden in 1984-5. He looked like they would have to built him his own wing in Cooperstown. But alas things happen.

Now lets talk about the WBC. As a fan I like the idea of the WBC. Seeing meaningful baseball in March is better than watching 3rd stringers for the Braves and Astros battle it out. But if I was a GM it might be another story. If I'm Omar Minaya I'd give my blessing if David Wright wants to play for the US or If Jose Reyes wants to play for the DR. Those players will get their ABs one place or another. I'd just make sure they are not over aggressive. Now if Johan Santana was totally healthy I'd still tell him no way. If I had any starting pitcher I'd never let him participate. I'd be skeptical for relievers but I would not forbid it. Mike and I totally agree that Scott Kazmir pitching for the US is doing both himself and the Rays a disservice. During the course of an important WBC game its not hard to imagine a pitcher over throwing and injuring himself. Then what???? Its definitely not worth it for MLB teams. See like long term deals to pitchers its got to be about minimizing risks to your pitchers. And as we've seen this off season starting pitching is still VERY expensive.

As a last note about the WBC I'd love to see an infield for the DR that has Pujols at first, Reyes at 2nd, Han Ram at short and A-Rod at 3rd. That would be fun.

Friday, January 16, 2009

Read This

I like to read, Thats no secret to anyone. My favorites are political thrillers, biographies and baseball books(are you stunned). The problem is most baseball books are like frozen pizza, mildly satisfying when your going through it but forgotten about five minutes after your done. But every once in awhile I read something really good. I just finished something that was really good which I'll talk about later. So an idea popped in my head as a public service I'll list 10 of my favorite baseball books. This way if anyone either gets any time or makes anytime they will know what to get. They will be listed alphabetically by the authors last name. So without further ado here is my version of the New York Times Book Review.

1.Eight Men Out-Eliot Asinof (1963)-If your reading this your probably familiar with the story of the 1919 Black Sox. Hollywood made a movie based on the book and actually did a nice job. As they stayed pretty close to the facts. But what truly separates the book is the details. Its impossible to get everything into a two hour movie. Reading this you get a good sense of who these 8 guys were as both players and people. You talk about a fractured clubhouse, these guys made the Bronx Zoo Yankees seem like a love in. Most of all you come to meet Shoeless Joe Jackson. Not as DB Sweeney or Ray Liotta but the real man. And at the end of the day Joe was an illiterate, ignorant guy who did not want to upset the players in the clique he was a part of, led by southerners Chick Gandil and Swede Risberg. We will never know if Shoeless Joe played 100% of not. We know he did take the money and then tried to return it and was talked out of it. As I type this another interesting part of the book was how justice in Chicago was proved to be an illusive thing. Well with current events with the Illinois Governor it seems the more things change the more they stay the same.

2.The Long Season-Jim Brosnan(1960)-Brosnan was a average, nondescript pitcher for the Cincinnati Reds in the late 50s and early 60s. Someone no one would know about 40 years later except he wrote 2 fantastic books, The Pennant Race and The Long Season. To my knowledge The Long Season was the first honest book that was taken from a diary. And to this day I'd sat it is still the best. Ball Four was written about 10 years later but probably would not have been published if it weren't for Brosnan's books. What make this book so good is it does a fantastic job making you see what it is really like to be a major league baseball player. Both the good and the not so good. Through the diary entries to go thro
ught slumps, disagreements with managers and coaches, crisis's of confidences, missing of family and trying to keep sane in the bullpen through the 154 game season. The book was not ghost written. And I'd be willing to bet even with all the money now in baseball the experience of being a player and going through the season in probably very similar. And reading this book is about as close as we will come to it.

3.Real Grass, Real Hereos-Dom DiMaggio(1980)-DiMaggio's book centers around baseball in that magical year of 1941. That was the incredible season when Joe DiMaggio had his 56 games hitting streak, Ted Williams hit .406 and the World Series had the famous Mickey Owen dropped third strike game. All this was occurring with the international situation as it was called in the day was going on(World War 2). Dom had a unique perspective on the years events as he played next to Ted Williams and obviously was Joe DiMaggio's brother. But while Dom talks about these events in some detail the best part about this book is his description of what baseball was like for both fans and players in 1941. The talks about how he believes travel by train helped team unity. His stories about road trips were very entertaining. He talks about the advent of night baseball. And the sameness in other words how you know who was playing where because players did not move around nearly as much as today. Also it was always the same cities. For the fans he talks about how radio was king and you could walk the streets in Brooklyn and hear the game on radio and not miss a pitch going from house to house. DiMaggio made it seem that the game is essentially the same but the players of that era enjoyed playing Major League baseball alot more than the players of today.

4.Bill James Historical Abstract-Bill James(2001)-Bill James is the father of modern sabermterics. I truly believe Bill James belongs in the Hall of Fame. The argument can be made he has done more to change the way baseball than other who was not officially connected to baseball with the probable exception of Marvin Miller. James taught us how to evaluate stats logically. And know the batting average is not the end all be all stat. But what I love about the Historical Abstract is not so much the stat head part of it. The first section takes each decade and gives it a decade in a box, He has great lists like the best offensive, worst uniforms, best baseball book and movie that should be made. It goes on and on. The lists are alot of fun to look at. Then he gives a very detailed essay on how the game was played during each decade. The second part of the book takes each position and ranks the players all time in that position. And he gives a detailed description of each player's accomplishments. While this section is a little stat heavy it is VERY readable. One thing about Bill James he is a very good writer. The above description really fails to do it justice. Simply put if I was stuck on a desert island and only had one book to have this would be that book. An all time classic. Anyone the least bit interested in baseball history should get in ASAP.

5.The Boys of Summer-Roger Kahn(1972)-One of baseball's all time classic books. Kahn a native New Yorker went back and interviewed the remaining living members of the Boys of Summer and came out with this amazing book. The names of the players on those teams are legendary. Start with HOFs Pee Wee Reese, Duke Snider and of course Jackie Robinson. And a supporting cast that included guys like Carl Furillo, Gil Hodges and Don Newcombe. New York in the 50s was the time of Willie, Mickey and the Duke. Reading this you got the impression that the current Met-Yankee rivalry was nothing compared to these three teams. Who you rooted for defined you. I loved how Kahn talks about how much baseball meant to the people of New York in the post WW 2 era. As for Dodgers these incredible players were just guys who lived in the neighborhood. Players who would barbecue with neighbors. I'd be willing to bet never in the history of baseball has a team been more interwoven and important to a community than the Dodgers to Brooklyn. Like 8 Men Out what I also loved about this book is you get to know the players as people. In an era now when we put players on a pedestal it is refreshing to read about these average guys who just happened to be great players but were not the least bit spoiled . They really seemed to get along with each other also. Think of how easy it would have been to have attitudes on that team but there were none. The best book I've ever read about one team and one time period.

6.Moneyball-Michael Lewis(2003)-This is the very controversial book that deals with Billy Beane and the economics of baseball. Lewis is not a sports writer, he is a business writer. So he takes a different approach than most sports writers. His basic question was this, why do the Oakland As with one of the smallest payrolls in baseball consistently have teams in contention. With that basic premise he spend a season with Billy Beane. Most of you know I'm a big Billy Beane fan(even though he traded my guy Rich Harden). What Lewis found was that Beane and his chief assistants JP Riccardi(now GM of the Blue Jays) and Paul DePodesta used statistics much more than tradional subjective scouting reports. Beane is much more interested in what a player has done and not what he looks like or what a scout might think he might do. The now famous Moneyball draft produced Nick Swisher and Joe Blanton for the As. Beane says to survive and compete he needs to find the things that the market undervalues that help you win games. For a very long time the thing was On Base Average. Now everyone is familiar with OBA. The portrayal of Beane is very interesting. He is an ultra competitive kind of guy. His success using sabermetrics has spawned a whole new movement in baseball to hire young GMs that are good at interpreting stats. Not former players or managers. Other than Beane and Riccardi two of the best GMs in the game Theo Epstein of the Red Sox and Andrew Freidman of the Rays come from this school. While some out there still are not on board with this new way of looking at how to run a franchise the results are clear. A great read for anyone interested in what its like to be a GM.

7.Crazy 08-Cait Murphy(2007)-This was the best baseball book I read last year. Murphy like Michael Lewis is not a baseball writer. As a life time baseball fan she wanted to write a baseball book and her grandfather keep telling her that the 1908 season would make a great topic. The 08 season was the season that featured Merkle's boner. Murphy does an amazing job taking you back to 1908 and putting you right in the middle of probably the wildest pennant race ever between the New York Giants and Chicago Cubs. You have to shake your head as you read it so say I can't believe this really happened!! Baseball at the turn of the century truly was a different game played by some truly different people. No TV, no radio. only John McGraw of the Giants and Frank Chance of the Cubs doing about anything to beat each other legal or otherwise. One interesting thing Murphy does is every couple of chapters she writes about something going on in pop culture at the time so you really get a sense of being in that time. It reads like fiction but this race really went down like its described. A terrific read.

8.Rob Neyers Big Book of Baseball Lineups-Rob Neyer(2003)-There is no plot in this one. What Neyer does is he takes each team and gives a lineup for the team all time 1st team,2nd team single season,all rookie,home grown, traded away, gold glove and iron glove. He gives little snippet of info for each player. His is a great book if you just want to pick something up for 5 minutes at a time. Over the years I crack it open every one and then. Its great especially if you love baseball history and comparing players from different eras.

9.I Was Right On Time-Buck O'Neil(1996)-Anyone who saw the Ken Burns baseball series came away with the feeling that Buck O'Neil stole the show. O'Neil was an above average player from the Negro Leagues in the 30s and 40s. He later became a scout and first black coach in the majors. He enthusiasm is incredible. He knew and played against everyone from the 30s to the 80s. His stories of the Negro Leagues and especially Satchel Paige have you laughing out loud. But when they got on the field it was no joke. This is the only autobiography on my list because O'Neil is such a different kind of person. Positive people like him are very few and far between in the world today in all walks of life. This is a is pretty quick read that will stay with you for a long time. As an afterthought if I was a big league manager I would make it required reading for all the black players on my team so they could see they are getting an opportunity to make millions of dollars because of the sacrifices of people like Buck O'Neil.

10.The Glory of Their Times-Lawerence Ritter(1966)-What Ritter did was go around the country and interviewed great players from the early part of the 20th century. He then devoted a chapter to each player. Some players include Smokey Joe Wood, Edd Roush, Lefty O'Doul, Paul Waner and many others. The powerful part of this book is hearing the players actual words descibing what baseball was like in another time. Its funny, sad and very informative. The best book about baseball in its early days.

Thursday, January 15, 2009

MLB mock Draft-By Mike

The powers that be at MLB.com and elsewhere have posted the first two rounds of a mock draft, so I thought I would offer a few comments and see what others might think. The draft results were as follows:

Pick
1.Hanley Ramirez
2.Jose Reyes
3.Alex Rodriguez
4.Albert Pujols
5.David Wright
6.Grady Sizemore
7.Ryan Howard
8.BJ Upton
9.Ryan Braun
10.Chase Utley
11.Jimmy Rollins
12.Miguel Cabrera

13.Josh Hamilton
14.Mark Teixeira
15.Justin Mourneau
16.Ian Kinsler
17.Johan Santana
18.Cole Hamels
19.Evan Longoria
20.Tim Lincecum
21.Carlos Beltran
22.Matt Holliday
23.Alfonso Soriano
24.Carlos Lee

I agree with the overall #1 pick. I was a little hesitant on HanRam a year ago but I'm a full believer now and this guy will hit in any ballpark in any condition (usually empty for him). I believe you can justify selecting ARod, Pujols, or Wright with the 2, 3 and 4 picks but there is no way Jose Reyes is a top 5 pick. Heck, I'm not even sure he is a top 10 pick.

As for the rest of the top 12, I'm down on Upton, Utley, Rollins and Cabrera this year. Is BJ Upton the guy who was mediocre for three-fourths of the season or is he the post season power hitter with a .500 batting average that everyone saw on television? The answer is neither. BJ Upton is a guy who I project to hit .280 with 15HRs, 90 runs scored and 45 stolen bases with RBIs being virtually nonexistent. With that said Upton at #8 is a reach. This draft was taken with the announcement of the Utley injury and if he's back in May then he is a top 10 pick but if threes any hiccups in his recovery process and he doesn't come back until June or the All Star break, you've wasted a top 10 pick. Rollins and Cabrera are due for a bounce back year years but there are guys in the second round that I prefer to have over them

Josh Hamilton and Mark Teixeira are two guys I would rather have than Rollins or Cabrera. Kinsler and Longoria are the real thing bit I don;t know if I take them that early. Matt Holliday was a top 10 pick over the last few seasons and the move from Coors Field may have an impact as will all the foul ball territory at McAfee Coliseum but don't sleep yet on Oakland's offensive prowess. If Daric Barton finds himself and Eric Chavez relives past glory days thanks to the arrival of Giambi, Oakland could be ok and Holliday would hit third in a lineup that features Holliday, Giambi and Cust. I guess I'm trying to say he was a steal @#22. We've already had the Lee, Soriano and Beltran discussion earlier in the blog so I guess that's it for now.

Wednesday, January 14, 2009

Best Season Ever

The MLB Network continues to deliver great programming. One of my favorite regular programs is Prime 9 which counts down the top 9 in any given baseball category. The catch phrase is it does not end arguments it starts them. The episode I watched tonight dealt with the greatest pitching season ever. Third was Bob Gibson in 68, Second was Walter Johnson in 13. Number 1 was Pedro's 2000 season. That's the season when his ERA was 1.74 while the league ERA was 5.07. A few weeks ago I did a comparasion of Pedro and Randy Johnson in their primes and was reminded of just how dominant they both were. The research was eye opening and was reaffirmed by the program.

Tuesday, January 13, 2009

Braves Keeping It On the Down-Lowe

Not a good day for Met fans as Derek Lowe has agreed to a deal with the Braves. Lowe will get 60 mil for 4 years. Thats considerably more than the Mets offered. The signing of Lowe comes one day after they signed Kenshin Kawakami. The starting rotation which was the major area of concern for the Braves is now the best part of their team. While Lowe, Vazquez and Jurjains are not Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz they are a very good trio. And if Kawakami is as good as advertised they will have 4 strong starters. With Jorge Campillo rounding out the rotation. Derek Lowe has been an above average pitcher since becoming a starter in 2002. He has won 12+games every year. His ERA has been under 4 each year for the past 4 years. And one other factor that can't be overstated his he does not get hurt. He has never been on the DL. Last season his K/BB ratio was a very good 3/1. He he was 20/34 in Quality Starts. And his sinker was as good as ever as shown by his G/F ratio of nearly 4/1. Some may question giving a 4 year deal to a 36 year old but sinkerballers tend to age well. Also Lowe has been a terrific big game pitcher. All those Brave fans that wanted Frank Wren's head after the John Smoltz controversy should be very pleased today. Unfortunately the rest of the team still has quite a few major holes. With the exception of Chipper Jones and Brian McCann the rest of the offense is weak. They have little power at key power positions like corner outfield and first base. And the bullpen is in need of more good arms. As of now the best they have is Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano both pitchers who are very injury prone. But even if they do nothing for the rest of the off season they will definitely improve from last years finish.

Welcome to Cooperstown Rice and Ricky

Unlike the Veterans committee the Baseball Writers of America got it right yesterday with the election of Ricky Henderson and Jim Rice to the Hall of Fame. In addition Andre Dawson, a player I was on the fence about received 67% of the vote which means the chances are very good next year. As for Ricky its hard to believe 20 something writers out there do not believe he belongs in the HOF. These must be the same people that don't vote for anyone on the first ballot. Henderson is the gold standard for leadoff hitters. Simply put he is the best leadoff hitter in baseball history. No one created havoc like Ricky. And he was not shy about telling everyone just how good he was. As for Jim Rice it took him until his last year of eligibility to get voted in. He has a good point when he said my numbers have not changed in 15 years. He must be more relieved than happy. I definitely think he belongs. So we close the book on the class of 2009. The top four players who become eligible in 2010 are Roberto Alomar, Barry Larkin, Edgar Martinez and Fred McGriff.

Saturday, January 10, 2009

HOF Ballot

First of all I hoped you guys enjoyed my Hall of Fame Series. Thinking about those players brought back alot of memories for me. Also it was interesting to see if my memories of how good players were matched the numbers. So after thinking long and hard if I was to have a vote the following players would get my vote

1.Ricky Henderson

2.Mark McGwire

3.Jim Rice

If Mark Grace had a shot I'd vote for him just to her his induction speech.

Now its YOUR turn. PLEASE leave a comment to this post with who would get your vote. Since Mike and Howie are 40+ and saw these guys play I'm especially interested in your opinion.

Friday, January 9, 2009

Can we Please Skip the Redding?

Apparently the Mets are on the verge of signing Tim Redding. Why????? Okay first the numbers, over the past two years his record is 13-17 with a less than stellar 4.53 ERA. His K/BB ratio is an awful 1.62/1. While he has given up 1.25 Homers per 9 innings. His WHIP was 1.44. And his % of Quality Starts was only 46%. There are alot of better options the Mets could have signed for a 5th starter. Randy Wolf would have been a much better option. I also would have much preferred Paul Byrd. Or how about bringing Pedro back. The three guys I mentioned would not have been expensive. The Mets have enough revenue coming in where they don't have to worry. While they are not in the same class as the Yankees when it comes to revenue they should not have to pinch pennies when it comes to filling out their rotation. Having the ability to have a big payroll allows you to do two things 1.go after the superstar free agent and 2.spend extra money on roll players and depth. Being able to spend 4/5 mil on a 5th starter and being able to spend a few mil on backup players is very important!!!! All we have to do is look at what the Red Sox did in the past week. Since they have a large payroll budget they were able to bring in Brad Penny, John Smoltz, Rocco Baldelli and resign Mark Kotsay. None of those players were huge dollar signings but together they gave the BoSox the ability to have depth. Very few teams have that financial capability. The Mets have a very competitive team and should be there at the end. Tim Redding could be an innings eater on a poor to middle team. Hopefully the Mets will be in a pennant race and when they get to their 5th starter it will be somebody better than Tim Redding,

Hoffman to the Brewers

Trevor Hoffman and his Major League Baseball record 554 saves signed with the Brew Crew. Hoffman base salary for 2009 will be 6 mil with the chance for an extra 1.5 in incentives. Hoffman who spent his entire big league career with the Padres steps right into the closers role with the Brewers. Milwaukee desperately needed someone to close games. Their current bullpen features David Riske, Todd Coffey and Jorge Julio. Their closer of a year ago Salomon Torres retired after the season. Alot of experts have said that Hoffman has lost something off his fastball which makes the separation between his heater and his change less. While that might be true alot of his numbers last year were quite good. He was 30/34 in save opportunities, his K/BB ratio was the best since 2004 and his WHIP was only slightly over 1. The problem Hoffman faced was the long ball. He gave up 8 dingers in only 45 innings. If he can get back to average levels he should do a nice job for Milwaukee. While thinking about Hoffman I know alot of people are probably complaining about the lack of loyalty shown by the Padres. And for that matter the Braves with John Smoltz. Loyalty is a two way street and for the most part baseball in 2009 has very little loyalty on either side. In the old days of the reserve clause teams had all the power over players so the Padres could have paid Hoffman essentially what they wanted. But with the advent of free agency both players and teams show little loyalty towards each other. The Pads offered Hoffman 4 mil to come back. If playing in San Diego was that important to him he could have come back. I know I could live on 4 million dollars this year. But by the same token if he could make more money elsewhere, why not? This is further proof, not that we need it that baseball is a business. Frankly it always was. So lets not vilify either teams or players for situations like Trevor Hoffman and John Smoltz.

Sporting New's Top 20

While shopping in the supermarket today I noticed the first Fantasy Baseball Magazine of the season has hit the newstand. So I figured I'd jot down TSN top 20.

1.Alex Rodriguez

2.Albert Pujols

3.Hanley Ramirez

4.David Wright

5.Matt Holliday

6.Grady Sizemore

7.Josh Hamilton

8.Jose Reyes

9.Ryan Howard

10.Ryan Braun

11.Miguel Cabrera

12.Tim Lincecum

13.Carlos Quentin

14.Johan Santana

15.Chase Utley

16.Manny Ramirez

17.Ian Kinsler

18.Carlos Beltran

19.Mark Teixeira

20.Lance Berkman

So what do you all think????? Personally I'm not comfortable with Lincecum@12. Utley @15 would be a risk. For him everything will probably depend on how much of the season he will miss. Manny @16 is also a risk. If he is motivated he is worth it. But expecting Manny to be motivated for an entire season may be asking too much. The last guy I'll mention is Ian Kinsler. Mike and I both predicted Kinsler would explode last year and we certainly were both right. We certainly won't be able to steal him this year in round 6-8. When I see lists like these I will post them. Leave comments on what you guys think of the TSN list.

Its Like Deja Vu All Over Again

Now its Jason Giambi's time to go home. All these homecomings are reminding me of the famous George Carlin routine comparing baseball to football when he says the object of baseball is to go home, just go home. Giambi signed a one year deal for 4 mil and and 6.5 mil option for 2010. This is the second big bat that Oakland has added with Giambi joining Matt Holiday. Adding offense was certainly the As number 1 need in the off season as they were dead last in run scoring in the AL last season. My feeling about Giambi is this. Anytime you can get a guy who hit over 30 HRs and drove in 90ish runs for only 4 million dollars its a bargain!! In addition this is exactly where Giambi wants to be, makes the deal even better. The middle of the As lineup will probably now be some combination of Holliday, Giambi and Jack Cust. That's not too bad. The rest of the offense is still far from adequate. As most of you know I'm a big Billy Beane fan and I'm confident he has a long term plan. Their farm system has been bolstered the past 2 seasons from trades. Alot of these guys are close to being significant contributors. If Giambi is healthy and puts up good numbers and Oakland is in it around the trading deadline the huge decision is what to do with Matt Holiday? I'm thinking there is no way Oakland will be able to sign him. His contract may even surpass Mark Teixeira's. If he is dealt for a package of top prospects I see Giambi's role as being a leader and a mentor on what will be a very young team. The only part of this move I don't like is signing Giambi means he will probably DH on most nights as they seem committed to Daric Barton(who was with Dan Haren was part of the Mark Mulder trade) at first. This means Jack Cust who is ideally suited to DH will have to play the outfield. This move has many more positives than negatives. Will the As challenge the Angels for the AL west next year? Probably not. But Billy Beane is doing what he always seems to do and thats trade players who are about to become too expensive for young talent and find veterans for good prices that will not blow his sub 50 mil payroll.

In another move that has was made for other reasons than to improve their team the Cubs traded Jason Marquis to Colorado for Luis Vizcaino. Now if I understand this correctly The Cubs have essentially given away Marquis and Mark DeRosa for nothing useful in return. They only made the moves to clear salary space for Milton Bradley. Am I off base thinking this is a huge gamble that has the potential to really backfire on the Cubbies. Marquis has won double figure games 4 years in a row and we know how valuable DeRosa is. Yesterday on Hot Stove Joe Magrane, who I like and have respect after listening to him for years do Rays games said he thinks with the addition of Bradley the Cubs can win 100 games and win the World Series. Maybe I'm in the minority but I'm not on board with this. Now if the REAL endgame is Jake Peavy than that would be another story totally. But by all accounts it is all about Bradley. Productive players are available every year around the trading deadline and the Cubs could have probably picked up a left handed bat then without sacrificing DeRosa and Marquis. As for The Rox getting Marquis. He is the type of pitcher who can succeed in Coors. His G/F was 1.9. Which means he basically got 2 ground outs for every 1 fly ball. With Colorado seemingly in rebuilding mode he will probably be a 1 year rental as he is a free agent at the end of the year. But for 2009 he joins what should be a very solid group of starters in Colorado. They will feature Aaron Cook, Jeff Francis and Ubaldo Jimenez. There should be a good competition for the 5th spot featuring Jason Hirsh, Taylor Buchholz and one of the ulite power arms in the minors Franklin Morales. The Rox like the As have really bolstered their farm system and should get back to contending sooner than later.

Tuesday, January 6, 2009

Hall of Fame Part 3

This is the final installment of my 3 part series looking at all the players on this year HOF ballot. The first two parts are in the archive. But in case you missed it heres what I got so far
Yes-Rickey Henderson, Mark McGwire(you can read the reason in part 2)
No-Jay Bell, Dale Murphy, Ron Gant, Don Mattingly, Mark Grace, Harold Baines Bert Blyleven,David Cone,Tommy John,Jack Morris, Jesse Orosco and Dan Pleasac
Maybe-Andre Dawson


Todays group has some of the most interesting and most debated nominees.

Dave Parker-The Cobra was a dominating player!! In his prime in Pittsburgh there were few better players in the National League. Defensively he had a absolute gun in Right Field. He garned 3 Gold Gloves. He was on 7 All Star Teams. He won MVP once in 1978 and was third in the voting in 1977. Seven years later in 1985 he was third. So why has he received so little consideration? While some of his career totals are a little on the light side, he has only 339 Hrs and a little less than 1500 RBIs he was a terrific player. I think being involved in the cocaine scandal from the early 80s probably hurt him. If his 1981-82 season weren't almost totally lost and he put up Parker like numbers he probably would have gotten in. But he is just a little short in my book.

Tim Raines-Quite a few people I really like and respect have been canvassing for Raines to get in. First the good. Raines was the best lead off hitter in the NL in the first half of the 80s. He led the league in SBs every year from 1981-84. His 808 career stolen bases is 5th overall in baseball history. He was in the top 2 in runs scored 4 times. And he was always solid in the field Rock was chosen to 7 All Star Games. But the number that convinces me he is not hall worthy is this. In his long career he was only in the top5 in MVP voting 1 time and that was a 5th. He was only in the top 10 three times. A terrific leadoff hitter and a player who I would have liked to have but also no, but close.

Jim Rice-Last year Rice was the closest without getting in. Growing up I always remember Rice as one of the best hitters in the AL. A guy you just don't give a good pitch to hit. Looking at his stats confirmed my memory. 8 All Star appearances. He won MVP in 1978 and finished in the top 3of MVP voting 6 times. His career SLG is over .500. He knock on Rice is twofold. One is he was a below average left fielder. On that count they are correct. But lets look at the guys who have been out there for the BoSox, Ted Williams, Yaz, Mike Greenwell and Manny Ramirez. None of those guys were even average fielders most were way below. So LF has never been a key outfield position for the Sox. The other criticism is his career totals in the glamour categories are a little weak. For me 382 HRs and 1451 RBIs are not awful totals at all. Unlike others Rice really did not hang around long after his prime to pad his career numbers. So Rice gets my vote!!!

Lee Smith-Most of you probably know I'm not happy with the current way bullpens are set up. I remember the good ole days of the firemen. Guys like Goose Gossage who would enter the game in any inning to put out to other teams rally. This occurred usually before the ninth. And then gasp!!! your relieve pitcher would pitch more than one inning. What a concept!!!!! While I won't penalize any of todays closers, they are doing what they are asked to do I don't know yet if you just get 3 outs with a lead you belong in the same place as the All Time Greats. Lee Smith had a very good career. So don't get 476 saves by accident. I give him brownie points for longevity. But I don't think he is Hall Worthy. I think a really good discussion can be had with whick of todays closers we will be talking about in the near future for entrance to Cooperstown

Alan Trammel-Trammel will always be known as the 2nd best SS in the AL during the 80s. With Cal Ripkin being head and shoulders above every one else. Trammel had a very nice career He was on 6 All Star teams and won 4 Gold Gloves. He was even 2nd in MVP voting one year. Alan Trammell and Lou Whitaker were terrific together. What I find interesting is the 84 Tigers were one of the best team in baseball in the 80s and they will have 0 HOFs. Not good enough.

Greg Vaughn-This makes me feel very old. I saw Vaughn in the summer of 1989 when he was playing AAA in Denver. He made 4 All Star teams. Not even in the ballpark.

Mo Vaughn- From 1995-98 Vaughn may have been the best hitter in the Al. He won the MVP in 1995. Alas 4 years does not make a career. The better of the Vaughns but also not close.

Matt Williams-I like Matt Williams. He does D-Back games when Gracie is doing network games. And he also is a very good broadcaster. He was a excellent power hitting 3rd basemen. His 378 career HRs are a testament to how good he really was. His career SLG is .489. He was named to5 All Star teams. And finished in the top 3 in MVP voting twice. Should he be in Cooperstown? No But he enjoyed a very underrated career.

Another Bat for the Rays

Yesterday Pat Burrell signed a 2 year deal for 16 mil to play for the American League Champion Rays. The main knock against Burrell is his poor defense. The Rays can just insert his bat into the lineup at DH and not have to worry about his questionable defense. The Rays have a very good defensive outfield with Crawford in left, Upton in center and Matt Joyce in right. Mitch Williams said on the Hot Stove Report he is a decent outfielder with a good arm. So if Crawford goes down like last year at least they have a usable substitution. The other knock on Burrell was he has a relatively low batting average. But again this is a case when we need to look a little deeper than traditional stats. Burrell walked from 98-114 times over the past 4 years. His OBA for the past 4 years are 367, 400, 388, 389. Burrell will fit in very nicely with Joe Madden's philosophy about working the count. Burrell can also take the Cliff Floyd role of the veteran to the young Rays. Knowing he only got 16 mil over two years is very surprising. He received alot less money than Edgar Renteria. For a guy who has averaged over 30HRs and 100RBIs. The Phils paid Raul Ibanez who is 4 years older 31 for 3. By all indications Burrell wanted to stay in Philly. Financially Burrell would have been a alot better fit than Ibanez. The Rays now can have the following lineup Iwamura, Crawford, Upton, Pena, Longoria, Burrell, Joyce, Navarro and Bartlett. The money the Yankees have spent on Teixera, Burnett and Sabathia comes to almost the payroll for all the Rays starters, starting rotation and entire bullpen. The Rays are much better now than they were last year. It looks like the 3 best teams in the AL are all in the east.

In the other big news Milton Bradley signed for 3 years and 30 mil with the Cubs. The Cubs were in a opposite situation than the Rays. Tampa needed a right handed bat which is another reason the Burrell signing is so good. The Cubs needed a left handed bat. As during the playoffs the Dodgers used all right handed pitchers. There is no question that Bradley can hit. Though I do believe last year was a career year for him. There is also no question Bradley comes with alot of baggage. If the Cubs moved Mark DeRosa to clear up money to sign Bradley I'm not thrilled with the move. Also the Cubs have a pretty solid outfield already with Soriano, Reed Johnson and Fukudome. Scoring runs was not the problem last year. Also Bradley is not a good outfielder who never seems to play more than 120 games. I won't go into all of Bradley's off the field problems. Frankly I don't have that much time. This signing is a risk. If he stays out of trouble and finally matures, a big if, the Cubs will be very strong again. But the Cubs would have been fine without him. I think if I was the Cubs I would not have signed him. Then if the need for a left handed hitter was that strong I'm sure they could have got one near the trading deadline. This would not have cost them 30 mil.

Monday, January 5, 2009

Pedro vs. Unit

Firstly I want to give credit to Howie for coming up with this idea. When I wrote about Johnson signing with the Giants he commented it would be fun to compare Pedro and Unit in their primes. What a great idea. I defined their prime as the best consecutive 8 years. 8 seasons is a arbitrary number. But since RJ won Cy Youngs 8 years apart it worked nicely. Also during those 8 seasons both had 1 season that they were injured. I believe when baseball historians look back at the 1990s 4 pitchers will stand head and shoulders above all overs. Greg Maddux, Roger Clemens and our two Pedro and Unit. Unit the huge nasty dominating lefty and Pedro the righty who might be 180 lbs soaking wet. In many ways they are so completely different. But as you will see from the numbers in alot of ways eerily similar. For the record Pedros prime was between 1997-2004. 97 was his last year with Montreal and his 7 seasons with Boston. And Units prime was between 1995-2002. 1995-1998(half season) with Seattle, 3 months at the end of 1998 with Houston and then 1999-2002 with Arizona. Also I used similar stats that I used when I compared Johan and CC. So here goes

Stat Randy Johnson Pedro Martinez

W-L 143-44 76% 147-45 77%

IP 1762 1633.7

H 1344 1585

K/BB 2416/543 4.49/1 1988/376 5.29/1

WHIP 1.07 .97

ERA 2.61 2.34

Quality Stats % 79% 79%

All Stars 6 6

Cy Youngs 4 (second once more) 3(second twice more)

Win Shares 176 172

World Series Win 1 1

Before I discuss those numbers a few things jumped out at me when I was working on this. One amazing thing is both pitchers prime occurred right smack in the middle of the now infamous steroids era. And to my knowledge unlike Clemens neither Johnson or Pedro was ever rumored to have juiced. If you look at the league ERAs during their peaks. The league ERA for Pedro was 4.58 which made his ERA a little more than half of the league. As for RJ the league ERA was 4.66 and his was 2.61 which is 44% better than the league. Now thats domination!!!! Also both pitchers spent their primes in good hitters parks. Chase Field in Arizona the best hitters park. Imagine if these guys spent their peaks in good pitchers parks. My favorite stat I found was about Pedro. During the 1999 and 2000 season he was 27/29 for Quality Starts for both seasons. Thats an ungodly 93%. Remember a Quality Start is defined as a pitcher who goes 6 and gives up 3 runs or less. So Pedro only had 4 games like that in 2 seasons. That just doesn't seem possible. Now compare that to Johan Santana who I think everyone agrees has been the best pitcher in baseball the past 3 seasons his QS% is 72% and CC is 66%. For the 8 seasons both pitchers in our comparison are an identical 79%. As for Randy Johnson if you throw out 1996 when he only pitched 61 innings he averaged 333 strikeouts per season. Thats 12.33 Ks per 9 innings. Another interesting thing about Johnson is he started his peak at age 31. His career arc is very similar to another lefty that took awhile to figure it out than was totally unhittable, Sandy Koufax. I also heard Koufax was the most dominating pitcher during the second half of the 20th century. But he had a few things going for him 1.He pitched in a great pitchers park in Dodger stadium where is is rumored the mound is higher than anywhere else 2.the 1960s were a time when run scoring was at its lowest point since the deadball era. Koufax's 1962-66 seasons are legend. And the stats are mind numbing but Unit and Pedro are not that far behind at all. Pedro's 2000 season when his ERA was 1.74 when the league was 5.07 is unbelievable. Also he accomplished this facing the Yankees and pitching in Fenway park. That season has to be one of the best in modern baseball history!!!! So who is better???? Pedro or Unit. Unlike the comparison between Johan and CC there is no clear winner. Looking at the stats I choose to use they almost mirror each other. It amazing just how close they really are. Since their peak both have been hurt often. There is a good chance RJ will be the last 300 game winner. For a career Unit is better for their prime maybe the slightest of edges to Pedro. You can't get in wrong either way!!!!!!!

Friday, January 2, 2009

Happy New Year To Me

For me the biggest event associated with 2008 turning into 2009 was the LONG awaited debut of the MLB Network. Since everyone is throwing in their two cents about the debut here's mine. Firstly the Hot Stove Show was very well done. The three main analysts Harold Reynolds, Barry Larkin and Al Leiter were all opinioned without being cliquish. Reynolds seems like he is playing the role of the broadcasting veteran was typical Reynolds. Which for me is solid but not the best. Larkin was the rookie of the group. He seemed a bit nervous but definitely held his own in the three way conversations. For my money Al Leiter was the most entertaining of the group. It was apparent even while he was a player that Leiter would be a natural broadcaster. I also like that he gives the pitchers point of view while Reynolds and Larkin give the hitters point of view. I also know a few other analysts have been signed including Joe Magrane who did a very good job with the Rays the last few years. The sets looked good. I thought the interview with Jimmy Rollins was both entertaining and informative. The piece remembering the untimely death of Roberto Clemente was also very well done. My favorite part of the show was the segment when they took Jackie Robinson's famous steal of home in the 55 Series and broke the play down and analyzed it from all angles. I never saw that done. I must have seen the play a thousand times but until Al Leiter pointed out Whitey Ford threw from the wind up I never noticed it. The whole segment was terrific. Overall the show was a very strong start and I can't wait to see more.

As for the Don Larson perfect game I was looking forward to it. I must have seen Yogi jumping into Larson's arms after striking out Dale Mitchell a hundred times. But watching the actual broadcast blew in away. Famous players like Mickey Mantle and Jackie Robinson who were legends I've just seen in high lites or read about in many books. Names like Carl Furillo and Joe Collins were pretty much just names on Strat-o-Matic cards. But you talk about history coming to life. I got to see 6 Hall-of -Famers play a whole game. Firstly let me say the first thing that struck me was just how similar the game of baseball from 1956 is to baseball today. Its not hard to imagine those teams playing the same game against teams and players of today. Seeing Mantle hit a Home Run in the middle of a game and not just in a high lite reel was incredible. From the announcing booth I got to hear Vin Scully as a young broadcaster. 52 years later I'll hear him this year. And his style is very similar!!! I loved seeing the original commercials. I know I' would have payed the 1 dollar to get the Gillette razor with the free baseball encylodia A few things that struck me about the broadcast was there was no graphics on the screen during the game. It was just the game. Also things we take for granted like instant replay was not missed at all. And one of my favorite things was how not everything was sponsored. You guys know what I'm talking about. Like this pitching change is brought to you by...... The 6th inning home run contest is brought to you by....... I could talk about this all night long. To say the experience was magical for me would not even begin to cover it. I was like going back in a time machine which is something I've often thought of. Finally having Bob Costas inteviewing Lasean and Yogi while watching the game asked him what they were thinking was fantastic. Costas did his usual brillant job when he does things like this. I pray they do more things just like that.

Since today was Jenny's B-Day I did not watch anything this afternoon but already have 5 hours of programming on the DVR. I'll probably wake up hours before I have to go to work to watch some tomorrow morning. I can't wait.

So if you guys watched anything please comment on this and write your own comments. I love reading them