During the beginning of the 70s TV Comedy All In The Family Archie and Edith were at the piano singing Those Were the Days. As students of history, baseball or otherwards we have a tendency to look back in history to find those good old days. But sometimes the good old days are now. About 2 weeks ago I was speaking with Howie about the teams we drafted. And I made the comment I thought both of our Shortstops(Stephen Drew and Troy Tulowitski) will have big years. This also got me thinking about the current crop of shortstops in the NL. If you look back into baseball history there has never been anything close to the talent and depth of shortstops. For the most part for the past 100 years the position of SS was manned by the guy who hit 220 but had a good glove. The first great shortstop Honus Wagner was said to be not only a great hitter but the best fielding shortstop of his time. If we look at the top 20 shortstops of all time as listed by Bill James in the historical abstract-PUBLISHED IN 2001!!!!! we see some guys most fans have never even heard of
1.Honus Wagner
2.Arky Vaughn
3.Cal Ripken
4.Robin Yount
5.Ernie Banks
6.Barry Larkin
7.Ozzie Smith
8.Joe Cronin
9.Alan Trammell
10.Pee Wee Reese
11.Luke Appling
12.Lou Boudreau
13.Luis Aparicio
14.George Davis
15.Jim Fregosi
16.Phil Rizzuto
17.Alex Rodriguez
18.Hughie Jennings
19.Maury Wills
20.Johnny Pesky
As I said this list was complied in 2001 which helps illustrate my point very well. If you look at this list half these guys had almost no power at all. Almost all were good fielders with Vaughn and Fregosi being the exceptions. Only 8 of the 20 had lifetime 300 averages. And only Banks,Ripken,Wagner and A-Rod were considered power hitters in their time, Knowing that these were the greatest of all time should help us appreciate what we now have even more. As we all know things started to change at shortstop with Cal Ripken. Then around the turn of the century we had the big 4 in the AL. Everyone knew just how good the combination of A-Rod,Nomar, Jeter and Tejada was. We were told of a golden era at shortstop and that was absolutely true. But how many people are telling us how lucky we are to being baseball fans in 2009 and seeing half a dozen guys all either in their primes of just approaching their best years. And they all play in the weaker league.
1.Hanley Ramirez-A true five tool guy who can beat with power, speed or average. His fielding is a bit erratic and this point in his career but all the physical tools to be a gold glover are there. And he keeps getting better and better.
2.Jose Reyes-Everyone knows what a prolific base stealer Reyes is but then his batting gets overlooked by some. This guy is a 200 hit a year machine. Now playing his games in Citi Field he should smash all post world war 2 records for triples. And he has double figure HR power. Another guy who is still improving.
3.Jimmy Rollins-Rollins already has an MVP award. And like the above two guys can beat you with both his legs and his bat. Rollins is also the heart and soul of the team that won the World Series. Pee Wee Reese, Phil Rizzuto and Derek Jeter got alot of credit for being leaders on championship teams why not J-Roll.
4.Stephen Drew-Quick name the SS who has the most extra base hits over the past two seasons? Wrong, its Stephen Drew. Another player who still hasn't reached his magic 27 season. I predict this guy will be a superstar. He started the season hitting 3rd.
5,Troy Tulowitski-Great rookie year. And he was hurt last year in the first half but came back with a strong second half. This guy is a outstanding hitter anywhere. But playing in Coors certainly does not hurt. This will only be his third season. He should be the cornerstone of the Rox going forward.
6.Rafael Furcal-This is the one guy who is not in the mid 20 age range. Furcal has been one of the steadiest most consistent performers for years. While his career numbers don't jump out at you they are very solid. A career 286 average which would put him in about the middle of the above top 20 list. 260 stolen bases is a terrific number that should easily go over 300 by the time he retires. And a career slugging average of 412 tells he is just not a singles hitter. At 31 he certainly has some more years in the tank.
7.JJ Hardy-Hardy is a guy who is notorious for having one great half and one awful half. If he can do it over 162 games he could be very dangerous.
So if you are watching a NL game today chances are you are seeing an above average SS. Twenty years when some of us are reaching retirement and other are reaching the primes of their lives we will all be able to say remember the good old days when we had HanRam, Reyes and J-Roll all in the same division. Its time someone other than me talks about this.
This weeks notes-This week saw two players hit for cycles. Orlando Hudson and Ian Kinsler. If did not know how rare it is to hit for the cycle but here is a couple of incredible stats. 1-O-Dogs cycle was the first one ever by a Dodger in Dodger Stadium. 2.Three teams San Diego,Florida and Tampa have never had a cycle. Kinsler ended up with 6 hits in his game.
Milestones-Gary Sheffield hit his 500 HR this week. It was the first time ever that a player hit his 500th as a pinch hitter. And on Monday night Paul Konerko and Jermaine Dye each hit their 300th Homer in back to back at bats.
Random Notes-I watched alot of the KC-Texas game last night. Zack Grienke was absolutely dominant. What struck me was in the ninth with him at just about 100 pitches he gave up a hit with one out. The score was 2-0 KC. Soria is warming up in the Royals pen. Trey Hillman comes out and leaves Grienke in. Wow it was like old school lets actually let a starting pitcher finish a game. And Grienke did complete his shutout the first complete game shutout of his career. And knowing he did it in Texas against that powerful Ranger lineup made it that much more of an incredible accomplishment.
Toronto is pounding the baseball and getting decent pitching after Roy Halladay. Toronto is now 9-4 with the best record in the AL. But I'm ready buying.
The Marlins keep winning. I'm sticking with 85 wins. Somehow I can't see the Fish averaging close to 7 runs a game for very much longer.
Brad Lidge blew a save last night his first in over a year as a Phillie. Last season Philys bullpen had a season for the ages. Some regression is to be expected.
Fantasy-Well after two weeks Howie is on top. I know he was happy with his team right after the draft and they have not disappointed. And if A-Rod comes back strong this could be a good season for the Northern Hirsch's. As for the rest of us the standings change on a nightly basis. Its kind of like a rugby scrum. Hopefully this week brings all of us good pitching and NO INJURIES(sorry Mike). Have a good week.
Sunday, April 19, 2009
Sunday, April 12, 2009
And Away We Go
The 2009 baseball season is now one week old. With one week in the books I figured I'd comment on some of the things I witnessed this week.
Fact or Fiction????-Today's installment deals with the Florida Marlins. The Fish are now 5-1 after taking 2 out of 3 from the Mets. I can just see it coming, at some point soon someone in the media will compare this team to the other team that plays here in Florida. So I may as well do it now. Last season the Rays proved you can greatly improve if you have two things. 1.Starting Pitching and 2..Very good team defense. As for the Marlins starters this group is for real. Nolasco. Johnson, Volstad and Sanchez have the potential to rival any teams top 4 starters. Josh Johnson today was simply outstanding. And you can make the argument that Ricky Nolasco was the second best pitcher in the second half of last season. There is no questioning any of these guys stuff. The potential pitfall comes from Johnson and Sanchez coming off major surgery's. As of now they both look as good or better than before the operations. Another potential red flag will be just how many innings these young studs can give the Fish. The max innings Josh Johnson ever threw in one season was 157 and Anibal Sanchez only went 114 innings. I've got to believe Fredi Gonzalez will be very careful with these guys. Which brings us to Florida's bullpen. This group won't scare too many people. Matt Lindstrom throws very hard but only seems to have that one pitch. When he gets a secondary pitch he could be lights out but he isn't quite there yet. The rest of the pen has guys like Kiko Calero, Leo Nunez and Dan Meyer. In Friday nights game Sanchez was fantastic giving up no runs over five innings. He was dominating a very good Met lineup. Then the bullpen gave up the lead twice including a run in the top of the 9th before they pulled it out in the bottom of the 9th. I fear this may be a pattern. As for the defense it should be improved from last season. Last season they were 2nd in the NL in most errors. With Jorge Cantu at first and Jeremy Hermeida moving to left it should upgrade the defense. In addition Cameron Maybin will cover alot of ground. But they are nowhere close to Tampa's defense. When I did my predictions I gave Florida third place and about 85 wins. After watching them this weekend I think that's about right.
Something also occurred in Friday nights Met-Marlin game I found very interesting. The Mets trailing by one in the 8th brought in JJ Putz to pitch. I applauded the move. The logic being if JJ can keep it a one run game than hopefully the bats could get at least one. As it happened the Mets tied up the game. So with a tie game in the bottom of the ninth I was hoping Jerry Manuel would have continued this aggressive style of using his new bullpen. But instead of putting in K-Rod in a tie game in the bottom of the ninth he chose to bring in Pedro Feliciano who got into trouble and then with the game on the line the last guy in the Mets pen Darren O'Day was on the mound to give up the game losing hit. Its easy to criticize strategy after it fails but this is a constant with me. If I'm in a tie game in the 9th I'm using my best pitcher. At that point in the game the bottom of the ninth was the most important point. If you use anything other than your best you may never get to use him. Especially with the way the Mets were scoring off Florida's bullpen. I hope Jerry Manuel doesn't use K-Rod as only a three out guy in a save situation. While it may boost his save totals it will undoubtedly cost the team games. And isn't it what that's what its all about???
Thankfully this week I only heard the term at this pace once this week. Its pointless to tell me in the third game of the season at this pace a guy will score 254 runs!!!!
This one drives me mad. You just see a score from a game in which you have a player on your fantasy team. The real team scores like 12 runs but your guy goes 0-5. This happened twice to me this week.
Finally one word about the start of our fantasy league. I'm REALLY!!!!! happy to see all the teams except one have already made moves. Hopefully everyone will be it it all season long. Thats what makes it alot of fun. And after the first week congrats to Daniel for leading the pack. If this continues I'll never hear the end of it.
Fact or Fiction????-Today's installment deals with the Florida Marlins. The Fish are now 5-1 after taking 2 out of 3 from the Mets. I can just see it coming, at some point soon someone in the media will compare this team to the other team that plays here in Florida. So I may as well do it now. Last season the Rays proved you can greatly improve if you have two things. 1.Starting Pitching and 2..Very good team defense. As for the Marlins starters this group is for real. Nolasco. Johnson, Volstad and Sanchez have the potential to rival any teams top 4 starters. Josh Johnson today was simply outstanding. And you can make the argument that Ricky Nolasco was the second best pitcher in the second half of last season. There is no questioning any of these guys stuff. The potential pitfall comes from Johnson and Sanchez coming off major surgery's. As of now they both look as good or better than before the operations. Another potential red flag will be just how many innings these young studs can give the Fish. The max innings Josh Johnson ever threw in one season was 157 and Anibal Sanchez only went 114 innings. I've got to believe Fredi Gonzalez will be very careful with these guys. Which brings us to Florida's bullpen. This group won't scare too many people. Matt Lindstrom throws very hard but only seems to have that one pitch. When he gets a secondary pitch he could be lights out but he isn't quite there yet. The rest of the pen has guys like Kiko Calero, Leo Nunez and Dan Meyer. In Friday nights game Sanchez was fantastic giving up no runs over five innings. He was dominating a very good Met lineup. Then the bullpen gave up the lead twice including a run in the top of the 9th before they pulled it out in the bottom of the 9th. I fear this may be a pattern. As for the defense it should be improved from last season. Last season they were 2nd in the NL in most errors. With Jorge Cantu at first and Jeremy Hermeida moving to left it should upgrade the defense. In addition Cameron Maybin will cover alot of ground. But they are nowhere close to Tampa's defense. When I did my predictions I gave Florida third place and about 85 wins. After watching them this weekend I think that's about right.
Something also occurred in Friday nights Met-Marlin game I found very interesting. The Mets trailing by one in the 8th brought in JJ Putz to pitch. I applauded the move. The logic being if JJ can keep it a one run game than hopefully the bats could get at least one. As it happened the Mets tied up the game. So with a tie game in the bottom of the ninth I was hoping Jerry Manuel would have continued this aggressive style of using his new bullpen. But instead of putting in K-Rod in a tie game in the bottom of the ninth he chose to bring in Pedro Feliciano who got into trouble and then with the game on the line the last guy in the Mets pen Darren O'Day was on the mound to give up the game losing hit. Its easy to criticize strategy after it fails but this is a constant with me. If I'm in a tie game in the 9th I'm using my best pitcher. At that point in the game the bottom of the ninth was the most important point. If you use anything other than your best you may never get to use him. Especially with the way the Mets were scoring off Florida's bullpen. I hope Jerry Manuel doesn't use K-Rod as only a three out guy in a save situation. While it may boost his save totals it will undoubtedly cost the team games. And isn't it what that's what its all about???
Thankfully this week I only heard the term at this pace once this week. Its pointless to tell me in the third game of the season at this pace a guy will score 254 runs!!!!
This one drives me mad. You just see a score from a game in which you have a player on your fantasy team. The real team scores like 12 runs but your guy goes 0-5. This happened twice to me this week.
Finally one word about the start of our fantasy league. I'm REALLY!!!!! happy to see all the teams except one have already made moves. Hopefully everyone will be it it all season long. Thats what makes it alot of fun. And after the first week congrats to Daniel for leading the pack. If this continues I'll never hear the end of it.
Thursday, April 9, 2009
AL Predictions
Its time to tackle the junior circuit. While its widely accepted that the AL is the tougher of the two leagues most of the big stars in MLB now seem to reside in the NL. In our draft 6 of the first 7 players were taken from the NL. With that being said its still much more difficult to get thought an AL lineup than one from the senior circuit. But I am curious to see if during inter league play the results won't be as lopsided as previous years.
AL EAST
1.Red Sox
2.Rays
3.Yankees
4.Blue Jays
5.Orioles
The best three teams in the AL all reside in this division. Its a shame that one of them will have to miss the playoffs. I believe the Red Sox have the best team in baseball. And with the possibility of a healthy John Smoltz and some point this season they will be that much better. The Rays should have another strong season. Their schedule in April is absolutely brutal. If they are hanging around when April turns to May watch out. The Yankees spent a zillion dollars to fix the pitching but three things would concern me 1.AJ Burnett can go down at anytime 2.The defense is way below average 3.They have alot of older players and older players get hurt. The Jays starting staff which was so good last year was decimated by injuries and free agent defections. Finally the Os will probably play good baseball for the first half like they usually do then fall apart in the second half. They have a few kids in the high minors ready to come up and at least make things interesting.
AL Central
1.Twins
2.Indians
3.Royals
4.Tigers
5.White Sox
This should be the closest division from top to bottom. You make make an argument for each team and then point out each teams faults. If pitching and defense win games than Minnesota is the best bet. I really like the Twins pitching, both starters and pen. The question will be can they score enough runs. The Tribe should not have much problems scoring runs its preventing them that may by the problem. I don't like their starting pitchers at all. Luckily the bullpen is deep because they will get alot of work. KC is the up and coming team in the division. Its been a very long time since I could have said that. Meche and Grienke are a very under rated duo. And they should score enough runs to earn a winning record. The Tigers went for broke last year and it did not pay off. The starters broke down and they have an awful defensive team. The talk of 1000 runs is now nothing but a memory. Finally the White Sox are in rebuilding mode. I'm expecting them to move their veterans like Jermaine Dye and Paul Konerko before the trading deadline.
AL West
1.Angels
2.Rangers
3.As
4.Mariners
The short stack is a very mediocre group. I'm picking the Angels but have no faith in the selection. They overachieved to 100 wins last year. The key will be 1.when Lackey,Santana and Escobar return 2.can they score enough runs without Mark Teixeira. I can see them only winning about 85 this season. Texas will pound people. They have a fantastic lineup. If they get even league average pitching they can pull off a surprise. The As are a very interesting team. with Trevor Cahill and Brett Anderson starting in the bigs we are seeing the future. This duo is very good. I expect the As to move Matt Holliday at the deadline for more prospects. This team is a year away but they are positioned to be good for years to come with a very small payroll. Haven't we seen this before???? As for the Ms they are going the Rays route with rebuilding their defense first. They have have the best defensive outfield in all of baseball. But unfortunately everything else lags behind.
AL Playoffs
Boton over Minnesota
Tampa over Angels
ALCS
Boston over Tampa
AL MVP-Josh Hamilton-Last year was what baseball people were expecting from this guy for years now. Like I said Texas will score often and he should have monster numbers. Runners Up-Miguel Cabrera and Nick Markakis
AL Cy Young-Joakim Soria-I thought long and hard about this and came to the conclusion that I can't see any AL Starters being that dominant. The Royals will play alot of close games and Soria should be lights out. Runners Up-Josh Beckett and Felix Hernandez
AL ROY-Travis Snider-This has the potential to be one of the best rookies classes in many years. Everyone knows David Price and Matt Wieters. I imagine their stay in the minors will be very short. Oaklands pitchers are also extremely talented. But I'm going with Travis Snider. This guy is very young but everyone says he has professional hitters written all over him. Like Jordan Schaffer he will start the season hitting at the bottom of the order but won't stay there long.
AL EAST
1.Red Sox
2.Rays
3.Yankees
4.Blue Jays
5.Orioles
The best three teams in the AL all reside in this division. Its a shame that one of them will have to miss the playoffs. I believe the Red Sox have the best team in baseball. And with the possibility of a healthy John Smoltz and some point this season they will be that much better. The Rays should have another strong season. Their schedule in April is absolutely brutal. If they are hanging around when April turns to May watch out. The Yankees spent a zillion dollars to fix the pitching but three things would concern me 1.AJ Burnett can go down at anytime 2.The defense is way below average 3.They have alot of older players and older players get hurt. The Jays starting staff which was so good last year was decimated by injuries and free agent defections. Finally the Os will probably play good baseball for the first half like they usually do then fall apart in the second half. They have a few kids in the high minors ready to come up and at least make things interesting.
AL Central
1.Twins
2.Indians
3.Royals
4.Tigers
5.White Sox
This should be the closest division from top to bottom. You make make an argument for each team and then point out each teams faults. If pitching and defense win games than Minnesota is the best bet. I really like the Twins pitching, both starters and pen. The question will be can they score enough runs. The Tribe should not have much problems scoring runs its preventing them that may by the problem. I don't like their starting pitchers at all. Luckily the bullpen is deep because they will get alot of work. KC is the up and coming team in the division. Its been a very long time since I could have said that. Meche and Grienke are a very under rated duo. And they should score enough runs to earn a winning record. The Tigers went for broke last year and it did not pay off. The starters broke down and they have an awful defensive team. The talk of 1000 runs is now nothing but a memory. Finally the White Sox are in rebuilding mode. I'm expecting them to move their veterans like Jermaine Dye and Paul Konerko before the trading deadline.
AL West
1.Angels
2.Rangers
3.As
4.Mariners
The short stack is a very mediocre group. I'm picking the Angels but have no faith in the selection. They overachieved to 100 wins last year. The key will be 1.when Lackey,Santana and Escobar return 2.can they score enough runs without Mark Teixeira. I can see them only winning about 85 this season. Texas will pound people. They have a fantastic lineup. If they get even league average pitching they can pull off a surprise. The As are a very interesting team. with Trevor Cahill and Brett Anderson starting in the bigs we are seeing the future. This duo is very good. I expect the As to move Matt Holliday at the deadline for more prospects. This team is a year away but they are positioned to be good for years to come with a very small payroll. Haven't we seen this before???? As for the Ms they are going the Rays route with rebuilding their defense first. They have have the best defensive outfield in all of baseball. But unfortunately everything else lags behind.
AL Playoffs
Boton over Minnesota
Tampa over Angels
ALCS
Boston over Tampa
AL MVP-Josh Hamilton-Last year was what baseball people were expecting from this guy for years now. Like I said Texas will score often and he should have monster numbers. Runners Up-Miguel Cabrera and Nick Markakis
AL Cy Young-Joakim Soria-I thought long and hard about this and came to the conclusion that I can't see any AL Starters being that dominant. The Royals will play alot of close games and Soria should be lights out. Runners Up-Josh Beckett and Felix Hernandez
AL ROY-Travis Snider-This has the potential to be one of the best rookies classes in many years. Everyone knows David Price and Matt Wieters. I imagine their stay in the minors will be very short. Oaklands pitchers are also extremely talented. But I'm going with Travis Snider. This guy is very young but everyone says he has professional hitters written all over him. Like Jordan Schaffer he will start the season hitting at the bottom of the order but won't stay there long.
Monday, April 6, 2009
NL Predictions
Unfortunately life has gotten in the way of writing the past few weeks. But with the season upon us I've decided to try to have something new up every Monday and Thursday. Since everyone is currently making predictions I figured I 'll make mine. And I'm sure seven months from now I'll be asking myself what were you possibly thinking. One quick note before the predictions these are made with my head and not my heart.
NL East-By far the best division in the NL. While everyone is talking about the Mets and Phils both the Marlins and the Braves will both be very much improved. As for Washington I can't see any situation where they don't finish in the cellar.
1.Mets
2.Phils
3.Marlins
4.Braves
5.Nats
I see the Mets winning about 92 games and not blowing it this year. After a very small sampling it appears Citi Field will be a very good pitchers park with Homers being depressed even more than Shea. But with that big outfield BAs should go up. Opposing teams will have to play their fastest outfielders there. I would not be stunned if the Mets produce their first batting champion. The World Champs should win about 88. They have a prolific lineup that will score alot of runs. Last season their bullpen wasn't just good it was historically good. A drop off is normal. The Marlins will be one of the interesting stories of 2009. They have a terrific collection of young pitchers and some young hitters that are probably 1 to 2 years away. All being led by one of the games best players in Han Ram. Let give them 85 wins. Atlanta had a good offseason. Derek Lowe was fantastic last night. Javy Vazquez going to the weaker league should bounce back away from the Cell. Getting Garrett Anderson for little more than a song was a terrific pickup. And watch Jordan Schaffer he may end up being NL ROY. I'll give them 83 wins. The Nats are over matched in every phase. Their young players are walking time bombs. Something nice??? I like Ryan Zimmerman. 65 Wins
NL Central
This should be the most lopsided division in all of baseball. Its the Cubs and everyone else. Every other team in the division has significant holes.
1.Cubs
2.Brewers
3.Reds
4.Cards
5.Astros
6.Pirates
The Cubbies have the most complete team in the NL. They hit, pitch and catch better than anyone. And they should be hungry after last season. Besides how can I pick against any team with Rich Harden? 97 wins. Places 2.3 and 4 could go in any order. I like Milwaukee's lineup but the starters have alot of questions. Though I believe Gallardo may be in for a nice year. Cincy is the team on the rise in the division. They take a big step forward this year and seriously contend next year. St. Louis needs everything to fall into place. IF Chris Carpenter stays healthy the starters will be pretty good. They will need a few players to step up and help Albert Pujols. Those three teams should all have about 84 wins. Houston's record was not indicative of their 2008 season. Based on runs scored and runs given up they over achieved more than any team in MLB. The middle of the lineup is still potent. But after Oswalt and Wandy Rodriguez the starters are a mess. 75 wins maybe. The Bucs seems finally to be on the right track. They seem to be committed to building with kids. The pitching staff is not bad. 2009 will be a long year but at least they are going in the right direction. 70 wins.
NL West
This should be a interesting race between LA and Arizona. With the Giants having the best pitching in the division. Colorado is in full rebuilding mode. With the Padres will probably be the worst team in the NL this year. I expect Jake Peavy traded by June 1.
1.Diamondbacks
2.Dodgers
3.Giants
4.Rockies
5.Padres
Arizona is ready to win now. The lineup is loaded with players just about reaching their prime with experience. And no combination of front line starters are more dependable than Brandon Webb and Dan Haren. 94 wins and a division title for the Snakes. The defending NL West champs should be close this year. Will Manny be the monster we saw last year for 162 games? Probably not. The team is solid. And should be in it all year long. 88 wins and a date with the Phils for a wild card berth. The Giants have scarry good pitching. Lincecum, Cain, Zito, Sanchez and Johnson. But will they score any runs? They need to get a bat at the trading deadline. Lets give them 81 wins. Colorado is rebuilding. The cornerstones are already their with Tulo, Ianetta Jimenez. I'd bet Atkins gets moved for more prospects by the trading deadline. They have a collection of terrific prospects that are coming. Watch Dexter Fowler this year. 75 wins. Finally San Diego fans will suffer a very long year. The big question for me is will they lose 100. Yep 62-100.
Playoffs-LA over Phily in a wild card tie breaker
Cubs over LA-Revenge is sweet
Mets over Arizona-The Mets always seem to well against Arizona pitchers
Cubs over Mets-Hopefully I'm wrong!!!!!
NL MVP-David Wright- Citi Field will take about 5 HRs away from him but add 20 pts to his batting average. Also I could see the Mets running more this year. Runners Up, Albert Pujols and Jose Reyes
NL Cy Young-Johan Santana- About the only way to score off Johan is to hit Homers off him and alot of those Homers at Shea will not go out of Citi Field. If he could only learn to pitch in April. Runners Up-Brandon Webb and Dan Haren
NL ROY-Jordan Schaffer-It seems all the good rookies will be in the AL. Schaffer should be the real deal. He will start the season at the bottom of the Braves order with little expectations and then rise in that order as the season progresses. Runner Up-Jason Motte
So now its your turn. I don't want to be the only one to stick my neck out. Comment on this piece and leave YOUR predictions. I'll do the AL on Thursday.
NL East-By far the best division in the NL. While everyone is talking about the Mets and Phils both the Marlins and the Braves will both be very much improved. As for Washington I can't see any situation where they don't finish in the cellar.
1.Mets
2.Phils
3.Marlins
4.Braves
5.Nats
I see the Mets winning about 92 games and not blowing it this year. After a very small sampling it appears Citi Field will be a very good pitchers park with Homers being depressed even more than Shea. But with that big outfield BAs should go up. Opposing teams will have to play their fastest outfielders there. I would not be stunned if the Mets produce their first batting champion. The World Champs should win about 88. They have a prolific lineup that will score alot of runs. Last season their bullpen wasn't just good it was historically good. A drop off is normal. The Marlins will be one of the interesting stories of 2009. They have a terrific collection of young pitchers and some young hitters that are probably 1 to 2 years away. All being led by one of the games best players in Han Ram. Let give them 85 wins. Atlanta had a good offseason. Derek Lowe was fantastic last night. Javy Vazquez going to the weaker league should bounce back away from the Cell. Getting Garrett Anderson for little more than a song was a terrific pickup. And watch Jordan Schaffer he may end up being NL ROY. I'll give them 83 wins. The Nats are over matched in every phase. Their young players are walking time bombs. Something nice??? I like Ryan Zimmerman. 65 Wins
NL Central
This should be the most lopsided division in all of baseball. Its the Cubs and everyone else. Every other team in the division has significant holes.
1.Cubs
2.Brewers
3.Reds
4.Cards
5.Astros
6.Pirates
The Cubbies have the most complete team in the NL. They hit, pitch and catch better than anyone. And they should be hungry after last season. Besides how can I pick against any team with Rich Harden? 97 wins. Places 2.3 and 4 could go in any order. I like Milwaukee's lineup but the starters have alot of questions. Though I believe Gallardo may be in for a nice year. Cincy is the team on the rise in the division. They take a big step forward this year and seriously contend next year. St. Louis needs everything to fall into place. IF Chris Carpenter stays healthy the starters will be pretty good. They will need a few players to step up and help Albert Pujols. Those three teams should all have about 84 wins. Houston's record was not indicative of their 2008 season. Based on runs scored and runs given up they over achieved more than any team in MLB. The middle of the lineup is still potent. But after Oswalt and Wandy Rodriguez the starters are a mess. 75 wins maybe. The Bucs seems finally to be on the right track. They seem to be committed to building with kids. The pitching staff is not bad. 2009 will be a long year but at least they are going in the right direction. 70 wins.
NL West
This should be a interesting race between LA and Arizona. With the Giants having the best pitching in the division. Colorado is in full rebuilding mode. With the Padres will probably be the worst team in the NL this year. I expect Jake Peavy traded by June 1.
1.Diamondbacks
2.Dodgers
3.Giants
4.Rockies
5.Padres
Arizona is ready to win now. The lineup is loaded with players just about reaching their prime with experience. And no combination of front line starters are more dependable than Brandon Webb and Dan Haren. 94 wins and a division title for the Snakes. The defending NL West champs should be close this year. Will Manny be the monster we saw last year for 162 games? Probably not. The team is solid. And should be in it all year long. 88 wins and a date with the Phils for a wild card berth. The Giants have scarry good pitching. Lincecum, Cain, Zito, Sanchez and Johnson. But will they score any runs? They need to get a bat at the trading deadline. Lets give them 81 wins. Colorado is rebuilding. The cornerstones are already their with Tulo, Ianetta Jimenez. I'd bet Atkins gets moved for more prospects by the trading deadline. They have a collection of terrific prospects that are coming. Watch Dexter Fowler this year. 75 wins. Finally San Diego fans will suffer a very long year. The big question for me is will they lose 100. Yep 62-100.
Playoffs-LA over Phily in a wild card tie breaker
Cubs over LA-Revenge is sweet
Mets over Arizona-The Mets always seem to well against Arizona pitchers
Cubs over Mets-Hopefully I'm wrong!!!!!
NL MVP-David Wright- Citi Field will take about 5 HRs away from him but add 20 pts to his batting average. Also I could see the Mets running more this year. Runners Up, Albert Pujols and Jose Reyes
NL Cy Young-Johan Santana- About the only way to score off Johan is to hit Homers off him and alot of those Homers at Shea will not go out of Citi Field. If he could only learn to pitch in April. Runners Up-Brandon Webb and Dan Haren
NL ROY-Jordan Schaffer-It seems all the good rookies will be in the AL. Schaffer should be the real deal. He will start the season at the bottom of the Braves order with little expectations and then rise in that order as the season progresses. Runner Up-Jason Motte
So now its your turn. I don't want to be the only one to stick my neck out. Comment on this piece and leave YOUR predictions. I'll do the AL on Thursday.
Wednesday, March 11, 2009
Cleveland Indians-Team Preview
2008 Team Record 81-81
Projected Lineup
C-Victor Martinez 2-35-278
1B-Ryan Garko 14-90-273
2B-Asdubal Cabrera 6-47-259
SS-Jhonny Peralta 23-89-276
3B-Mark DeRosa 21-87-285
LF-Ben Francisco 15-54-266
CF-Grady Sizemore 33-90-268
RF-Shin Soo Choo 14-66-309
DH-Travis Hafner 5-24-197
Projected Rotation
Cliff Lee 22-3-2.54
Fausto Carmona 8-7-5.44
Carl Pavano 4-2-5.77
Anthony Reyes 4-2-2.76
Aaron Laffey 4-7-4.23
Bullpen
Kerry Wood 5-4-3.26 34
Jensen Lewis 0-4-3.82 13
Rafael Perez 4-4-3.54 2
Whats To Like
1.Wheres the Fire?-Mark Shapiro, one of the sharp young GMs in the game did a excellent job rebuilding the horror show the was the Tribes bullpen. Not only did they sign a real closer in Kerry Wood. They filled the pen with very good arms just in case Wood goes down(not an impossible thing). Not only do they have Jensen Lewis who did a very good job closing at the end of last year. They also have Rafael Perez, Joe Smith, Rafael Betancourt and Masahide Kobayashi. This crew should be an asset and not a weakness.
2.And Down the Stretch-With the Tribe pretty much out of the race they put together their best two months of the season at the end. Remember this was after the trade of CC Sabathia. As an outsider its hard to know exactly who should get the credit for this but I'm sure Eric Wedge deserves alot. If you can have a team play hard when they are out of it. Think what they can do if they contend. FYI the Tribe was 34-21 in Aug. and Sept.
Whats Not to Like
1.And the starter will be who?-This starting staff is full of question marks. Last year Cliff Lee had a dream season. He will be very hard pressed to win 20 again will this group. More about Fausto Carmona later. If Carl Pavano is penciled in for your third starter you know your in trouble. And the rest of the staff will be filled out by once and future prospects like Anthony Reyes, Aaron Laffey, Jeremy Sowers and Scott Lewis. Best case scenario they are league average. More likely they cause the Tribe to fall behind on most nights.
2.Slow, Slower and Slowest-This is a team outside of Grady Sizemore with NO speed. They stole 77 bases last year with Sizemore swiping 38. And as I've said in the past on this blog. Speed is not only important stealing bases. Its critical in the field. The lack of speed will cost the Indians in alot of ways that might not be readily seen.
Fantasy Focus
Fausto Carmona-As a rule batters are more consistent and stable than pitchers. Pitchers are dependant on factors outside of their own control to be successful. The most obvious two are run support for wins and a good defense to make good plays to keep their ERA down. Errors happen to all teams. But the good defensive teams turn hits into outs. I bring this up because if you knew nothing about baseball and looked at Carmona's stats over the past three years you'd be really confused. In 2006 1-10-5.26 In 2007 19-8 3.06 and in 2008 8-7-5.44. How is this possible? Well last years difficulties can be traced to a few placed but maybe the most damning stat he walked more hitters than he struck out. Last season he had 58 Ks and 70 BBs. In 2007 his good year his numbers were 137Ks/61BBs. So what about 2009? I think the real Carmona is somewhere between 2007 and 2008. He is a guy that you can probably get in the later rounds. If his control is good he can be a steal. If he is not drafted watch that K/BB ratio early if its good someone should grab him off the waiver wire pretty quickly.
Fun Fact
Cliff Lee was simply amazing last season. One of the numbers that you won't find on the back of a baseball card that is really important when explaining his success is Lee only had 3 stolen base attempts against him all year!!!!!
Outlook
For a team that was so close just two years ago it now faces a real uphill battle. The team has holes all over. IF!!! Martinez and Hafner both return to pre-injury levels and the young pitchers work out it will be a smoothie transition season. But everything has to go right for this team to contend. The AL Central is totally up in the air. But for now I'll say the Tribe finish 4th.
Projected Lineup
C-Victor Martinez 2-35-278
1B-Ryan Garko 14-90-273
2B-Asdubal Cabrera 6-47-259
SS-Jhonny Peralta 23-89-276
3B-Mark DeRosa 21-87-285
LF-Ben Francisco 15-54-266
CF-Grady Sizemore 33-90-268
RF-Shin Soo Choo 14-66-309
DH-Travis Hafner 5-24-197
Projected Rotation
Cliff Lee 22-3-2.54
Fausto Carmona 8-7-5.44
Carl Pavano 4-2-5.77
Anthony Reyes 4-2-2.76
Aaron Laffey 4-7-4.23
Bullpen
Kerry Wood 5-4-3.26 34
Jensen Lewis 0-4-3.82 13
Rafael Perez 4-4-3.54 2
Whats To Like
1.Wheres the Fire?-Mark Shapiro, one of the sharp young GMs in the game did a excellent job rebuilding the horror show the was the Tribes bullpen. Not only did they sign a real closer in Kerry Wood. They filled the pen with very good arms just in case Wood goes down(not an impossible thing). Not only do they have Jensen Lewis who did a very good job closing at the end of last year. They also have Rafael Perez, Joe Smith, Rafael Betancourt and Masahide Kobayashi. This crew should be an asset and not a weakness.
2.And Down the Stretch-With the Tribe pretty much out of the race they put together their best two months of the season at the end. Remember this was after the trade of CC Sabathia. As an outsider its hard to know exactly who should get the credit for this but I'm sure Eric Wedge deserves alot. If you can have a team play hard when they are out of it. Think what they can do if they contend. FYI the Tribe was 34-21 in Aug. and Sept.
Whats Not to Like
1.And the starter will be who?-This starting staff is full of question marks. Last year Cliff Lee had a dream season. He will be very hard pressed to win 20 again will this group. More about Fausto Carmona later. If Carl Pavano is penciled in for your third starter you know your in trouble. And the rest of the staff will be filled out by once and future prospects like Anthony Reyes, Aaron Laffey, Jeremy Sowers and Scott Lewis. Best case scenario they are league average. More likely they cause the Tribe to fall behind on most nights.
2.Slow, Slower and Slowest-This is a team outside of Grady Sizemore with NO speed. They stole 77 bases last year with Sizemore swiping 38. And as I've said in the past on this blog. Speed is not only important stealing bases. Its critical in the field. The lack of speed will cost the Indians in alot of ways that might not be readily seen.
Fantasy Focus
Fausto Carmona-As a rule batters are more consistent and stable than pitchers. Pitchers are dependant on factors outside of their own control to be successful. The most obvious two are run support for wins and a good defense to make good plays to keep their ERA down. Errors happen to all teams. But the good defensive teams turn hits into outs. I bring this up because if you knew nothing about baseball and looked at Carmona's stats over the past three years you'd be really confused. In 2006 1-10-5.26 In 2007 19-8 3.06 and in 2008 8-7-5.44. How is this possible? Well last years difficulties can be traced to a few placed but maybe the most damning stat he walked more hitters than he struck out. Last season he had 58 Ks and 70 BBs. In 2007 his good year his numbers were 137Ks/61BBs. So what about 2009? I think the real Carmona is somewhere between 2007 and 2008. He is a guy that you can probably get in the later rounds. If his control is good he can be a steal. If he is not drafted watch that K/BB ratio early if its good someone should grab him off the waiver wire pretty quickly.
Fun Fact
Cliff Lee was simply amazing last season. One of the numbers that you won't find on the back of a baseball card that is really important when explaining his success is Lee only had 3 stolen base attempts against him all year!!!!!
Outlook
For a team that was so close just two years ago it now faces a real uphill battle. The team has holes all over. IF!!! Martinez and Hafner both return to pre-injury levels and the young pitchers work out it will be a smoothie transition season. But everything has to go right for this team to contend. The AL Central is totally up in the air. But for now I'll say the Tribe finish 4th.
Monday, March 9, 2009
Cincinnati Reds-Team Preview
2008 Team Record 74-88
Projected Lineup
C-Ramon Hernandez 15-65-257
1B-Joey Votto 24-84-297
2B-Brandon Phillips 21-78-261
SS-Alex Gonzalez Out for 2008
3B-Edwin Encarnacion 26-68-251
LF-Chris Dickerson 6-15-304
CF-Willy Taveras 1-26-251
RF-Jay Bruce 21-52-254
Projected Rotation
Aaron Harang 6-17-4.38
Bronson Arroyo 15-11-4.77
Edinson Volquez 17-6-3.21
Johnny Cueto 9-14-4.81
Micah Owings 6-9-5.93
Bullpen
Francisco Cordero 5-4-3.33 34
David Weathers 4-6-3.25
Jared Burton 5-1-3.22
Whats To Like
1.And the Youth Shall Lead-Any team that has a quartet of 25 and under players such as Edinson Volquez, Johnny Cueto, Joey Votto and Jay Bruce has the nucleus to compete for years to come. I would think the Reds should definitely try to lock Votto and Bruce up long term. As I talked about in an earlier piece signing pitchers to long term deals is very risky. The Reds have the Dominican duo for at least two more years before they really have to think about long term deals for them.
2.The New Boss, Different from the Old Boss-For years the Reds were one of the worst run teams in baseball. Starting with Marge Schott to the parade of incompetent GMs. But now Walt Jockerty who was the architect of the Cardinal teams from the last few years is in on board to runs the Reds. Jockerty always has a knack for finding veterans and overlooked players with small salaries. The days of horrible trades should be over in Cincy.
Whats Not to Like
1.Wheres First????-The Reds had the 3rd worst OBA in the NL last season last season. And adding Willy Taveras a career 331 to hit lead off will not help out much. The offense needs to walk more and strikeout less.
2.Keep It in the Park-Cincy allowed the most homers of any team in the NL. While this can be partly explained by playing in Great American Ballpark. The real problem lies in that this staff is made up of predominately fly ball pitchers. Aaron Harrang and Johnny Cueto are definite fly ball pitchers. Owings, Arroyo and Volquez are more neutral. Last year the combination of fly balls yielded and the worst HR/FB ratio in the NL .13 spelled doom.
Fantasy Focus
Edwin Encarnacion-There are a few players that you always think great things are on the way. But for one reason or another it never seems to happen. Encarncion seems to be one of those guys. While he increased to 26 HRs last year just about all other numbers seem stagnant or going in the wrong direction. His BA dropped 36 points. Even with those extra 11HRs he has 8 less RBIs. And only 1 SB after averaging close to 10. Someone will probably draft him and he might explode but the numbers don't forsee a sustained breakout from him
Fun Fact
Micah Owings is a career 319 hitter. And his career SLG is 552. Which places him second on the team only behind Joey Votto.
Outlook
For the first time in decades Red fans have real reason for optimism. The young players are there. A very deep rotation with Homer Bailey waiting in the wings. The Reds will not win the Central this year but they are closer than any time in awhile. I'll say they improve by 7 games and end by around 81-81.
Projected Lineup
C-Ramon Hernandez 15-65-257
1B-Joey Votto 24-84-297
2B-Brandon Phillips 21-78-261
SS-Alex Gonzalez Out for 2008
3B-Edwin Encarnacion 26-68-251
LF-Chris Dickerson 6-15-304
CF-Willy Taveras 1-26-251
RF-Jay Bruce 21-52-254
Projected Rotation
Aaron Harang 6-17-4.38
Bronson Arroyo 15-11-4.77
Edinson Volquez 17-6-3.21
Johnny Cueto 9-14-4.81
Micah Owings 6-9-5.93
Bullpen
Francisco Cordero 5-4-3.33 34
David Weathers 4-6-3.25
Jared Burton 5-1-3.22
Whats To Like
1.And the Youth Shall Lead-Any team that has a quartet of 25 and under players such as Edinson Volquez, Johnny Cueto, Joey Votto and Jay Bruce has the nucleus to compete for years to come. I would think the Reds should definitely try to lock Votto and Bruce up long term. As I talked about in an earlier piece signing pitchers to long term deals is very risky. The Reds have the Dominican duo for at least two more years before they really have to think about long term deals for them.
2.The New Boss, Different from the Old Boss-For years the Reds were one of the worst run teams in baseball. Starting with Marge Schott to the parade of incompetent GMs. But now Walt Jockerty who was the architect of the Cardinal teams from the last few years is in on board to runs the Reds. Jockerty always has a knack for finding veterans and overlooked players with small salaries. The days of horrible trades should be over in Cincy.
Whats Not to Like
1.Wheres First????-The Reds had the 3rd worst OBA in the NL last season last season. And adding Willy Taveras a career 331 to hit lead off will not help out much. The offense needs to walk more and strikeout less.
2.Keep It in the Park-Cincy allowed the most homers of any team in the NL. While this can be partly explained by playing in Great American Ballpark. The real problem lies in that this staff is made up of predominately fly ball pitchers. Aaron Harrang and Johnny Cueto are definite fly ball pitchers. Owings, Arroyo and Volquez are more neutral. Last year the combination of fly balls yielded and the worst HR/FB ratio in the NL .13 spelled doom.
Fantasy Focus
Edwin Encarnacion-There are a few players that you always think great things are on the way. But for one reason or another it never seems to happen. Encarncion seems to be one of those guys. While he increased to 26 HRs last year just about all other numbers seem stagnant or going in the wrong direction. His BA dropped 36 points. Even with those extra 11HRs he has 8 less RBIs. And only 1 SB after averaging close to 10. Someone will probably draft him and he might explode but the numbers don't forsee a sustained breakout from him
Fun Fact
Micah Owings is a career 319 hitter. And his career SLG is 552. Which places him second on the team only behind Joey Votto.
Outlook
For the first time in decades Red fans have real reason for optimism. The young players are there. A very deep rotation with Homer Bailey waiting in the wings. The Reds will not win the Central this year but they are closer than any time in awhile. I'll say they improve by 7 games and end by around 81-81.
Thursday, March 5, 2009
Chicago White Sox-Team Preview
2008 Team Record 89-79
Projected Lineup
C-AJ Pierzynski 13-60-281
1B-Paul Konerko 22-62-240
2B-Chris Getz 0-1-286
SS-Alexei Ramirez 21-77-290
3B-Josh Fields 0-2-156
LF-Carlos Quentin 36-100-288
CF-Brian Anderson 8-26-232
RF-Jermaine Dye 34-96-292
DH-Jim Thome 34-90-245
Projected Rotation
Mark Buerhle 15-12-3.79
John Danks 12-9-3.32
Gavin Floyd 17-8-3.84
Bartolo Colon 4-2-3.92
Clayton Richard 2-5-6.04
Bullpen
Bobby Jenks 3-1-2.63 30
Scott Linebrink 2-2-3.69 1
Matt Thornton 5-3-2.67 1
Whats To Like
1.How do you spell Relief-The bullpen is by far the best part of this team. Along with the three I mentioned above they also have Octavio Dotel. The Sox should be able to shorten games for a very questionable starting staff.
2.Carlos Quentin-Sure the 36 dingers and 100 RBIs are nice but any player who breaks a bone in anger is my kind of guy.
Whats Not To Like
1.No Direction Home-Since the White Sox were eliminated by the Rays in the playoffs almost everything they have done this off season is questionable at best. I understand about not wanted to get old but Kenny Williams took a playoff team and turned them into a team that will be very lucky to win 75 games.
2.Lets get THIS started-If Bartolo Colon is penciled in for my 4th starter I know my rotation has issues. The Sox are hoping Jose Contreras can help. If the White Sox are rebuilding having Contreras and Colon is not the way to go.
Fantasy Focus
Gavin Floyd-Fact or Fiction???? If you look very closely at Floyd's numbers he gives indications he is either ready to take the next step to be a big winner or he is about to prove 2008 was a mirage. Very few players have numbers going in both directions like Floyd. For example Floyd averaged only 6.3 Ks per 9 innings past season. While walking over 3 per 9. That a very questionable K/BB ratio of just 2/1. Floyd was lucky in the respect he had fantastic run support. On the positive side he is still only 26 and has shown growth throughtout his brief MLB career. If he can just cut down on the HRs yielded which for the past years was either 12-13% of fly balls he should be able to sustain success. As of now I'm a bit on the skeptical side. The White Sox are not going to be a good team so I don't believe he is worth drafting but he is worth keeping an eye on.
Fun Fact
Anyone who has read this blog since I've started doing this should know by now I'm very partial to strikeout pitchers versus contact pitchers. Mark Buerhle is amazing every day he gives up tons of base runners but always has a good record and a much better ERA than you'd expect. So how does he do it? He is three stats. 1.Buerhle gave up the most hits of any MLB pitcher 240. 2.He induced the most DPs of any pitcher in MLB with 39 3.He only gave up 5 Stolen Bases all year old in 12 attempts while picking off 6 runners. By the way Gavin Floyd gave up 37 Stolen Bases by far the most in MLB.
Outlook
Its not easy to go from first to worst but thats what I'm predicting for the White Sox. This was the division champs last year. I don't believe Kenny Williams had a tear apart this team. Especially in this year of free agent bargains. If the Sox just resigned their players and added a piece to the rotation they would have an excellent chance to repeat. Also whats puzzleling to me is if the White Sox had a prospects in the minors ready to take over I'd be able to understand their moves but its not the case. The only highly thought of prospects in the minors are SS Gordan Beckham and C Tyler Flowers and neither should contribute this season. 2 other predictions for this team are 1.They will be out of it by the trading deadline and will try to move Jermaine Dye 2.Ozzie Guillen will be fired by the All Star break.
Projected Lineup
C-AJ Pierzynski 13-60-281
1B-Paul Konerko 22-62-240
2B-Chris Getz 0-1-286
SS-Alexei Ramirez 21-77-290
3B-Josh Fields 0-2-156
LF-Carlos Quentin 36-100-288
CF-Brian Anderson 8-26-232
RF-Jermaine Dye 34-96-292
DH-Jim Thome 34-90-245
Projected Rotation
Mark Buerhle 15-12-3.79
John Danks 12-9-3.32
Gavin Floyd 17-8-3.84
Bartolo Colon 4-2-3.92
Clayton Richard 2-5-6.04
Bullpen
Bobby Jenks 3-1-2.63 30
Scott Linebrink 2-2-3.69 1
Matt Thornton 5-3-2.67 1
Whats To Like
1.How do you spell Relief-The bullpen is by far the best part of this team. Along with the three I mentioned above they also have Octavio Dotel. The Sox should be able to shorten games for a very questionable starting staff.
2.Carlos Quentin-Sure the 36 dingers and 100 RBIs are nice but any player who breaks a bone in anger is my kind of guy.
Whats Not To Like
1.No Direction Home-Since the White Sox were eliminated by the Rays in the playoffs almost everything they have done this off season is questionable at best. I understand about not wanted to get old but Kenny Williams took a playoff team and turned them into a team that will be very lucky to win 75 games.
2.Lets get THIS started-If Bartolo Colon is penciled in for my 4th starter I know my rotation has issues. The Sox are hoping Jose Contreras can help. If the White Sox are rebuilding having Contreras and Colon is not the way to go.
Fantasy Focus
Gavin Floyd-Fact or Fiction???? If you look very closely at Floyd's numbers he gives indications he is either ready to take the next step to be a big winner or he is about to prove 2008 was a mirage. Very few players have numbers going in both directions like Floyd. For example Floyd averaged only 6.3 Ks per 9 innings past season. While walking over 3 per 9. That a very questionable K/BB ratio of just 2/1. Floyd was lucky in the respect he had fantastic run support. On the positive side he is still only 26 and has shown growth throughtout his brief MLB career. If he can just cut down on the HRs yielded which for the past years was either 12-13% of fly balls he should be able to sustain success. As of now I'm a bit on the skeptical side. The White Sox are not going to be a good team so I don't believe he is worth drafting but he is worth keeping an eye on.
Fun Fact
Anyone who has read this blog since I've started doing this should know by now I'm very partial to strikeout pitchers versus contact pitchers. Mark Buerhle is amazing every day he gives up tons of base runners but always has a good record and a much better ERA than you'd expect. So how does he do it? He is three stats. 1.Buerhle gave up the most hits of any MLB pitcher 240. 2.He induced the most DPs of any pitcher in MLB with 39 3.He only gave up 5 Stolen Bases all year old in 12 attempts while picking off 6 runners. By the way Gavin Floyd gave up 37 Stolen Bases by far the most in MLB.
Outlook
Its not easy to go from first to worst but thats what I'm predicting for the White Sox. This was the division champs last year. I don't believe Kenny Williams had a tear apart this team. Especially in this year of free agent bargains. If the Sox just resigned their players and added a piece to the rotation they would have an excellent chance to repeat. Also whats puzzleling to me is if the White Sox had a prospects in the minors ready to take over I'd be able to understand their moves but its not the case. The only highly thought of prospects in the minors are SS Gordan Beckham and C Tyler Flowers and neither should contribute this season. 2 other predictions for this team are 1.They will be out of it by the trading deadline and will try to move Jermaine Dye 2.Ozzie Guillen will be fired by the All Star break.
Wednesday, March 4, 2009
Chicago Cubs Team Preview
2008 Team Record 97-64
Projected Lineup
C-Geo Soto 23-86-285
1B-Derek Lee 20-90-291
2B-Mike Fontenot 9-40-305
SS-Ryan Theriot 1-38-307
3B-Aramis Ramirez 27-111-289
LF-Alfonso Soriano 29-75-280
CF-Kosuke Fukudome 10-58-257
RF-Milton Bradley 22-77-321
Projected Rotation
Carlos Zambrano 14-6-3.91
Ryan Dempster 17-6-2.91
Rich Harden 10-2-2.07
Ted Lilly 17-9-4.29
Sean Marshall 3-5-3.86
Bullpen
Carlos Marmol 2-4-2.68 7
Kevin Gregg 7-8-3.41 29
Aaron Heilman 3-8-5.21 3
Whats To Like
1.Balance-The Cubbies have the best balence of any team in the NL. If you look at the combination of offense, starting pitching and bullpen they have no weak area of the club.
2.Lets get this started-The Cubs have a very solid group of 5 starters I listed above. But if the unthinkable happens like an injury to Rich Harden they have Aaron Heilman and Jeff Samardzija just waiting for an opportunity. Not many teams have the luxury of having so many options.
Whats Not to Like
1.Not so Fast-Speed is one of the most under evaluated aspects in all of baseball. Just think its not just Stolen Bases, but its also getting to balls in the field and grounding into inning killing DPs. By all accounts Chicago's lack of seed is the team Achilles heal. And with Fukudome who has fantastic in right moving to center the Cubs defense becomes below average.
2.This team seems built for the 162 game marathon but not for the playoffs where dominant pitching and defense are key. While I love the deep rotation the only pitcher I'd be truly afraid to face in a short series is Rich Harden(if healthy). If they can get Jake Peavy it would address that in a hurry.
Fantasy Focus
Carlos Marmol-Marmol will get the opportunity to close for the Cubbies this year, a job he has never done for any amount of time before. So how should we evaluate him? Would I want to do is take Marmol and use him in a bigger discussion on how to spot guys who will make successful closers. Alot of people firstly mention the closer mentality. Some guys have it some don't. My feeling is this is something thats a bit overrated. If this "skill" was constant guys would not win jobs and lose them from year to year. Whats more important to me is what kind of stuff does. For me I look at two stats. 1.K/innings 2.K/BB. When you think of almost all the dominant closers they are almost all strikeout pitchers. The contact pitchers rarely succeed in the role. There has been exceptions like Dan Quizenberry but in general its the guys that strikeout hitters are the guys you want. Also walks are deadly both in real baseball and for your teams WHIP. Also two more factors contribute to a guy being successful as a closer that he has no control over. 1.opportunity-it makes sense that closers on better teams will have more chances for saves than closers on bad teams 2.competition-is there another guy in the pen thats ready to take his place if he struggles. For example for the Angels if Brian Fuentes blows a few like he did in Colorado two years ago they have Jose Arredondo ready and waiting. Conversely if Trevor Hoffman struggles in Milwaukee they have no one to take his place. So by all those factors lets look at Marmol. Firstly Marmol averaged 11.8 Ks per 9 innings last season. Thats a definite plus. His K/BB ratio last season was 2.8/1. Not bad but with his K rate it shows he walks to many hitters. Lets calls that neither a plus nor a minus. Opportunity-The Cubs are probably the best team in the NL major plus. Competition-Kevin Gregg who saved 27 games for Florida last year is ready and waiting so thats a minus. The final verdict is I like Marmol but he is not an absolute slam dunk.
Fun Fact
Maybe it was not such a good idea to let Jason Marquis go to Colorado. You see every year Marquis has been in the Majors his team won their division.
Outlook
This is a terrific team. They should be a heavy favorite to win the NL Central. If I was a betting man I'd say they will have the best record in the NL again. A fun thing to watch this summer is to see how longs it takes Lou Pinella to blow up at Milton Bradley. And then see who Milton Bradley blames it on. Seeing how the Cubs have not won the Series since 1908 the law of averages is bound to catch up to them soon. Its not to far fetched to think this is the year.
Projected Lineup
C-Geo Soto 23-86-285
1B-Derek Lee 20-90-291
2B-Mike Fontenot 9-40-305
SS-Ryan Theriot 1-38-307
3B-Aramis Ramirez 27-111-289
LF-Alfonso Soriano 29-75-280
CF-Kosuke Fukudome 10-58-257
RF-Milton Bradley 22-77-321
Projected Rotation
Carlos Zambrano 14-6-3.91
Ryan Dempster 17-6-2.91
Rich Harden 10-2-2.07
Ted Lilly 17-9-4.29
Sean Marshall 3-5-3.86
Bullpen
Carlos Marmol 2-4-2.68 7
Kevin Gregg 7-8-3.41 29
Aaron Heilman 3-8-5.21 3
Whats To Like
1.Balance-The Cubbies have the best balence of any team in the NL. If you look at the combination of offense, starting pitching and bullpen they have no weak area of the club.
2.Lets get this started-The Cubs have a very solid group of 5 starters I listed above. But if the unthinkable happens like an injury to Rich Harden they have Aaron Heilman and Jeff Samardzija just waiting for an opportunity. Not many teams have the luxury of having so many options.
Whats Not to Like
1.Not so Fast-Speed is one of the most under evaluated aspects in all of baseball. Just think its not just Stolen Bases, but its also getting to balls in the field and grounding into inning killing DPs. By all accounts Chicago's lack of seed is the team Achilles heal. And with Fukudome who has fantastic in right moving to center the Cubs defense becomes below average.
2.This team seems built for the 162 game marathon but not for the playoffs where dominant pitching and defense are key. While I love the deep rotation the only pitcher I'd be truly afraid to face in a short series is Rich Harden(if healthy). If they can get Jake Peavy it would address that in a hurry.
Fantasy Focus
Carlos Marmol-Marmol will get the opportunity to close for the Cubbies this year, a job he has never done for any amount of time before. So how should we evaluate him? Would I want to do is take Marmol and use him in a bigger discussion on how to spot guys who will make successful closers. Alot of people firstly mention the closer mentality. Some guys have it some don't. My feeling is this is something thats a bit overrated. If this "skill" was constant guys would not win jobs and lose them from year to year. Whats more important to me is what kind of stuff does. For me I look at two stats. 1.K/innings 2.K/BB. When you think of almost all the dominant closers they are almost all strikeout pitchers. The contact pitchers rarely succeed in the role. There has been exceptions like Dan Quizenberry but in general its the guys that strikeout hitters are the guys you want. Also walks are deadly both in real baseball and for your teams WHIP. Also two more factors contribute to a guy being successful as a closer that he has no control over. 1.opportunity-it makes sense that closers on better teams will have more chances for saves than closers on bad teams 2.competition-is there another guy in the pen thats ready to take his place if he struggles. For example for the Angels if Brian Fuentes blows a few like he did in Colorado two years ago they have Jose Arredondo ready and waiting. Conversely if Trevor Hoffman struggles in Milwaukee they have no one to take his place. So by all those factors lets look at Marmol. Firstly Marmol averaged 11.8 Ks per 9 innings last season. Thats a definite plus. His K/BB ratio last season was 2.8/1. Not bad but with his K rate it shows he walks to many hitters. Lets calls that neither a plus nor a minus. Opportunity-The Cubs are probably the best team in the NL major plus. Competition-Kevin Gregg who saved 27 games for Florida last year is ready and waiting so thats a minus. The final verdict is I like Marmol but he is not an absolute slam dunk.
Fun Fact
Maybe it was not such a good idea to let Jason Marquis go to Colorado. You see every year Marquis has been in the Majors his team won their division.
Outlook
This is a terrific team. They should be a heavy favorite to win the NL Central. If I was a betting man I'd say they will have the best record in the NL again. A fun thing to watch this summer is to see how longs it takes Lou Pinella to blow up at Milton Bradley. And then see who Milton Bradley blames it on. Seeing how the Cubs have not won the Series since 1908 the law of averages is bound to catch up to them soon. Its not to far fetched to think this is the year.
Sunday, March 1, 2009
Boston Red Sox-Team Preview
2008 Record 95-67
Projected Lineup
C-Jason Veritek 13-43-220
1B-Kevin Youkliss 29-115-312
2B-Dustin Pedroia 17-83-326
SS-Julio Lugo 1-22-268
3B-Mike Lowell 17-73-274
LF-Jason Bay 31-101-286
CF-Jacoby Ellsbury 9-47-280
RF-JD Drew 19-64-280
DH-David Ortiz 23-89-264
Projected Starters
Josh Beckett 12-10-4.03
Jon Lester 16-6-3.21
Daisuke Matsuzaka 18-3-2.90
Tim Wakefield 10-11-4.13
Brad Penney 6-9-6.27
Bullpen
Johnathan Papelbon 5-4-2.31 41
Hidecki Okajima 3-2-2.61 1
Manny Delcarmen 1-2-3.27 2
Justin Masterson 6-5-3.16
Whats to Like
1.Theo Epstein and da Boyz-The Sox have the best organization in all of baseball. From locking up vital members of their team. To trading players at the right time. To doing a great job of scouting and drafting. Yes they are a team with a large payroll but they still are considerably less than the Yankees.
2.The Sox have the deepest pitching staff in all of baseball. Just think if John Smoltz continues to heal he will join this terrific staff. Also I did not even mention Clay Buchholz who was the number 1 rated pitching prospect by Baseball Prosptus in 2008.
Whats Not to Like
1.Its Thin Out There-The Sox look most venerable in the outfield. Its certainly not a stretch to think JD Drew gets hurt at some point. As of now the backup outfielders are a very questionable Rocco Baldelli and Brad Wilkerson. This is the only part of the team that might need upgrading.
2.That Hurts-Many of the Sox players have a history of injury. Drew,Lowell,Ortiz,Baldelli,Beckett all have had spent time on the DL. The problem is the room for error is incredibly small in the AL East. If a few players go down here and there and the replacements while capable are not up to the level of the starters it might cost the Sox a few games over the course of the season. And it might be those few games that drops the Sox to being the third best team both in baseball AND the AL East.
Fantasy Focus
Dice K-So Dice K goes 18-3 with an ERA under 3 and plays on a terrific team so why is he not ranked in the top in fantasy pitchers? His stats speak on an ace, right? Well maybe not. Here is three stats that point to caution 1.His K/BB Ratio is a way below average 1.6. 2. His HR/FB was a very low 6%.3 And finally his BABIP(Batting Average of Balls In Play) was a ridiculously low 262. Sabermetrics has proven that for almost all pitchers BABIP is not a repeatable skill. The league average is right around 300. Regression to the mean is simply the rule. Dice K's BABIP in 2007 was 302. So he was probably quite lucky in 2008. I'm not saying he is not a good pitcher who is not worth owning. All I'm saying is don't expect a repeat of 2008.
Fun Fact
For a long time Red Sox Nation has lived and died with the longball. And if you ask most fans they would probably still say the Sox have one of the most powerful teams in all of baseball. But guess what the facts really don't back that up. They only hit 11 more HRs than the average AL team. Certanly not bad but not the awesome power some think they prowcess.
Outlook
As I write this I'd say the Red Sox have the best team in baseball from top to bottom. If Penney is healthy. and Smoltz is anywhere close to where he was before the injury when he returns(no rush) the Sox will have two MORE terrific pitchers at a bargain price. They also have money to spend at the trading deadline to trade for a player to make them better. About the only problems I see on the horizon are a rash of injury to their injury prone players and the teams that play in Tampa and the Bronx. I'd be VERY surprised if Red Sox Nation are not watching meaningful baseball in October for their beloved Sox.
Projected Lineup
C-Jason Veritek 13-43-220
1B-Kevin Youkliss 29-115-312
2B-Dustin Pedroia 17-83-326
SS-Julio Lugo 1-22-268
3B-Mike Lowell 17-73-274
LF-Jason Bay 31-101-286
CF-Jacoby Ellsbury 9-47-280
RF-JD Drew 19-64-280
DH-David Ortiz 23-89-264
Projected Starters
Josh Beckett 12-10-4.03
Jon Lester 16-6-3.21
Daisuke Matsuzaka 18-3-2.90
Tim Wakefield 10-11-4.13
Brad Penney 6-9-6.27
Bullpen
Johnathan Papelbon 5-4-2.31 41
Hidecki Okajima 3-2-2.61 1
Manny Delcarmen 1-2-3.27 2
Justin Masterson 6-5-3.16
Whats to Like
1.Theo Epstein and da Boyz-The Sox have the best organization in all of baseball. From locking up vital members of their team. To trading players at the right time. To doing a great job of scouting and drafting. Yes they are a team with a large payroll but they still are considerably less than the Yankees.
2.The Sox have the deepest pitching staff in all of baseball. Just think if John Smoltz continues to heal he will join this terrific staff. Also I did not even mention Clay Buchholz who was the number 1 rated pitching prospect by Baseball Prosptus in 2008.
Whats Not to Like
1.Its Thin Out There-The Sox look most venerable in the outfield. Its certainly not a stretch to think JD Drew gets hurt at some point. As of now the backup outfielders are a very questionable Rocco Baldelli and Brad Wilkerson. This is the only part of the team that might need upgrading.
2.That Hurts-Many of the Sox players have a history of injury. Drew,Lowell,Ortiz,Baldelli,Beckett all have had spent time on the DL. The problem is the room for error is incredibly small in the AL East. If a few players go down here and there and the replacements while capable are not up to the level of the starters it might cost the Sox a few games over the course of the season. And it might be those few games that drops the Sox to being the third best team both in baseball AND the AL East.
Fantasy Focus
Dice K-So Dice K goes 18-3 with an ERA under 3 and plays on a terrific team so why is he not ranked in the top in fantasy pitchers? His stats speak on an ace, right? Well maybe not. Here is three stats that point to caution 1.His K/BB Ratio is a way below average 1.6. 2. His HR/FB was a very low 6%.3 And finally his BABIP(Batting Average of Balls In Play) was a ridiculously low 262. Sabermetrics has proven that for almost all pitchers BABIP is not a repeatable skill. The league average is right around 300. Regression to the mean is simply the rule. Dice K's BABIP in 2007 was 302. So he was probably quite lucky in 2008. I'm not saying he is not a good pitcher who is not worth owning. All I'm saying is don't expect a repeat of 2008.
Fun Fact
For a long time Red Sox Nation has lived and died with the longball. And if you ask most fans they would probably still say the Sox have one of the most powerful teams in all of baseball. But guess what the facts really don't back that up. They only hit 11 more HRs than the average AL team. Certanly not bad but not the awesome power some think they prowcess.
Outlook
As I write this I'd say the Red Sox have the best team in baseball from top to bottom. If Penney is healthy. and Smoltz is anywhere close to where he was before the injury when he returns(no rush) the Sox will have two MORE terrific pitchers at a bargain price. They also have money to spend at the trading deadline to trade for a player to make them better. About the only problems I see on the horizon are a rash of injury to their injury prone players and the teams that play in Tampa and the Bronx. I'd be VERY surprised if Red Sox Nation are not watching meaningful baseball in October for their beloved Sox.
Saturday, February 21, 2009
Baltimore Orioles- Team Preview
2008 Record 68-93
Projected Lineup
C-Matt Weiters- Rookie
1B-Aubrey Huff 32-108-304
2B-Brian Roberts 9-57-296
SS-Cesar Izturis 1-24-263
3B-Melvin Mora 23-104-285
LF-Felix Pie 1-10-241
CF-Adam Jones 9-57-270
RF-Nick Markakis 20-87-308
DH-Luke Scott 23-65-257
Rotation
Jeremy Guthrie 10-12-3.63
Koji Uehara
Rich Hill 1-0 -4.12
Matt Albers 3-3-3.49
Mark Henrickson 7-8-5.45
Bullpen
George Sherrill 3-5-4.73 31
Chris Ray Injured all Last Season
Jim Johnson 2-4-2.33 1
Whats to Like
1.Catch This-Matt Weiters is the consensus #1 hitting prospect in baseball. Catchers who can hit are a rarity. And by all accounts he will be an all star for a long time. His ETA is at some point this year
2.Signing B-Rob-Roberts has been the subject of trade rumors going back a couple of years now. Signing him to a 4 year deal makes sense. Even if Baltimore continues to struggle every team needs a veteran to give the franchise credibility
Whats Not to Like
1.It All Starts With Pitching-The Os staff should be locked in a duel with their Beltway neighbors the Nats all year long for the worst staff in baseball. Right now I'll give the nod to Baltimore as the worst. Having to face the lineups of the AL East just compounds the problem. Jim Palmer could probably move from the teams broadcast booth today and claim a rotation spot.
2.Why Bother-Let me get this straight the Os actually put more into Cesar Izturis to start at SS. Then spent some money on Greg Zaun to catch? While I can get behind Ty Wigginton Baltimore wasted what little money they spend this off season.
Fantasy Focus
Brian Roberts-Since there is very little to talk about here. I want to use Roberts as an example of something else. If your reading this chances are you will be looking at some projection for players before our draft. Lets face it, we all do it. But just how accurate are those projections. In my opinion some are much better than others. I really think some are made up without any basis in fact. For the Os Adam Jones may be 10-70-260 OR 25-90-300. Any projections are just educated guesses. But with Brian Roberts you know exactly what you are going to get. Roberts is about a consistent a player as there is in all of baseball. With the lack of quality 2nd baseman guys like Roberts are invaluable.
Fun Fact
Not much so this is a stretch. Baltimore pitchers led the MLB last season with 687 walks. And this season they have a good chance to walk even more hitters.
Outlook
In a word ugly. The Os are the worst team in the AL. If I was in charge of this mess I'd wait until the trading deadline and then trade most of the veterans that can bring me any kind of prospects. As good as Aubrey Huff was last year he should probably be moved. I'd add Melvin Mora to the list. And guys like Ty Wigginton are much more valuable on good teams. I'd then start the rebuilding process with the 2 cornerstones of the Os in the future Matt Weiters and Nick Markakis.
Projected Lineup
C-Matt Weiters- Rookie
1B-Aubrey Huff 32-108-304
2B-Brian Roberts 9-57-296
SS-Cesar Izturis 1-24-263
3B-Melvin Mora 23-104-285
LF-Felix Pie 1-10-241
CF-Adam Jones 9-57-270
RF-Nick Markakis 20-87-308
DH-Luke Scott 23-65-257
Rotation
Jeremy Guthrie 10-12-3.63
Koji Uehara
Rich Hill 1-0 -4.12
Matt Albers 3-3-3.49
Mark Henrickson 7-8-5.45
Bullpen
George Sherrill 3-5-4.73 31
Chris Ray Injured all Last Season
Jim Johnson 2-4-2.33 1
Whats to Like
1.Catch This-Matt Weiters is the consensus #1 hitting prospect in baseball. Catchers who can hit are a rarity. And by all accounts he will be an all star for a long time. His ETA is at some point this year
2.Signing B-Rob-Roberts has been the subject of trade rumors going back a couple of years now. Signing him to a 4 year deal makes sense. Even if Baltimore continues to struggle every team needs a veteran to give the franchise credibility
Whats Not to Like
1.It All Starts With Pitching-The Os staff should be locked in a duel with their Beltway neighbors the Nats all year long for the worst staff in baseball. Right now I'll give the nod to Baltimore as the worst. Having to face the lineups of the AL East just compounds the problem. Jim Palmer could probably move from the teams broadcast booth today and claim a rotation spot.
2.Why Bother-Let me get this straight the Os actually put more into Cesar Izturis to start at SS. Then spent some money on Greg Zaun to catch? While I can get behind Ty Wigginton Baltimore wasted what little money they spend this off season.
Fantasy Focus
Brian Roberts-Since there is very little to talk about here. I want to use Roberts as an example of something else. If your reading this chances are you will be looking at some projection for players before our draft. Lets face it, we all do it. But just how accurate are those projections. In my opinion some are much better than others. I really think some are made up without any basis in fact. For the Os Adam Jones may be 10-70-260 OR 25-90-300. Any projections are just educated guesses. But with Brian Roberts you know exactly what you are going to get. Roberts is about a consistent a player as there is in all of baseball. With the lack of quality 2nd baseman guys like Roberts are invaluable.
Fun Fact
Not much so this is a stretch. Baltimore pitchers led the MLB last season with 687 walks. And this season they have a good chance to walk even more hitters.
Outlook
In a word ugly. The Os are the worst team in the AL. If I was in charge of this mess I'd wait until the trading deadline and then trade most of the veterans that can bring me any kind of prospects. As good as Aubrey Huff was last year he should probably be moved. I'd add Melvin Mora to the list. And guys like Ty Wigginton are much more valuable on good teams. I'd then start the rebuilding process with the 2 cornerstones of the Os in the future Matt Weiters and Nick Markakis.
Friday, February 20, 2009
Atlanta Braves-Team Preview
2008 Team Record-72-90
C-Brian McCann 23-87 - 301
1B-Casey Kotchman 14-74- 272
2B-Kelly Johnson 12-69-287
SS-Yunel Escobar 10-60-288
3B-Chipper Jones 22-75-364
LF-Matt Diaz 2-14-244
CF-Josh Anderson 3-12-294
RF-Jeff Francouer 11-71-239
Rotation
Derek Lowe 14-11-3.24
Javier Vazquez 12-16-4.67
Jair Jurrjins 13-10-3.68
Kenshin Kawakami
Jorge Campillo/Tom Glavine
Bullpen
Mike Gonzalez 0-3-4.28 14
Rafael Soriano 0-1-3.58 3
Peter Moylan 0-1-4.79 1
Whats To Like
1.New Starters-Atlanta long known for starters were awful last season. Frank Wren went out and got Lowe,Vazquez and Kawakami. Just think in the past two seasons they have turned over all 5 starters.
2.Help Is Closer Than You Think-According to Baseball Prospectus 2009 Atlanta has 2 of the top 13 prospects in all of baseball. Tommy Hanson is a pitcher who is probably be in the show this year and Justin Heyward who has been described as a 6ft 4in toolsy outfielder. He is probably 2 years away which may be when Atlanta will be close to contending
Whats Not to Like
1.Can I Please Have Some Relief-The bullpen is a mess. No closer saved more than 15 games and the top 3 guys Gonzalez, Moylan and Soriano all have histories of injury.
2.Power Outage-If you look at the key power positions 1B,LF and RF the Braves have a serious lack of power. Last season the Braves playing in a neutral park hit 33 HRs less than the NL average. And they did nothing to address this need.
Fantasy Focus
Jeff Francouer-As you can see from the above stats for Francouer he was awful last season. The big question will be will the 2009 Francouer be closer to the disappointing 2008 version or the promising 2007? Looking closely at his numbers shows two major problems. Firstly his plate discipline has not developed at all. For every walk he stuck out close to 3 times. At this point in his career that stat should be moving in the other direction. The other disturbing number is only 8% of his fly balls went for homers. This stat is rarely goes backwards for a player still in his mid 20s. My feel is Francouer will be better than last year. Its hard to imagine him being worse. But I don't see him being the player most of us thought he was going to become at the end of the 2007 season.
Fun Fact
The Braves had 9 Starting Pitchers start at least 5 games last season. Think back to the Leo Mazzone days their pitchers never seemed to get hurt.
Outlook
The Braves did a good job vastly improving their starting pitchers. But did nothing to address their needs in the outfield and the bullpen. Oddly enough that was the two places this off season where the most free agent bargains were. So my question would be was it cost efficient to pay Derek Lowe all that money when they could have taken that money and a got a power hitting outfielder and a solid reliever. Lets face it they won't contend this year. Atlanta will improve by a few wins but still finish 4th in the NL East.
C-Brian McCann 23-87 - 301
1B-Casey Kotchman 14-74- 272
2B-Kelly Johnson 12-69-287
SS-Yunel Escobar 10-60-288
3B-Chipper Jones 22-75-364
LF-Matt Diaz 2-14-244
CF-Josh Anderson 3-12-294
RF-Jeff Francouer 11-71-239
Rotation
Derek Lowe 14-11-3.24
Javier Vazquez 12-16-4.67
Jair Jurrjins 13-10-3.68
Kenshin Kawakami
Jorge Campillo/Tom Glavine
Bullpen
Mike Gonzalez 0-3-4.28 14
Rafael Soriano 0-1-3.58 3
Peter Moylan 0-1-4.79 1
Whats To Like
1.New Starters-Atlanta long known for starters were awful last season. Frank Wren went out and got Lowe,Vazquez and Kawakami. Just think in the past two seasons they have turned over all 5 starters.
2.Help Is Closer Than You Think-According to Baseball Prospectus 2009 Atlanta has 2 of the top 13 prospects in all of baseball. Tommy Hanson is a pitcher who is probably be in the show this year and Justin Heyward who has been described as a 6ft 4in toolsy outfielder. He is probably 2 years away which may be when Atlanta will be close to contending
Whats Not to Like
1.Can I Please Have Some Relief-The bullpen is a mess. No closer saved more than 15 games and the top 3 guys Gonzalez, Moylan and Soriano all have histories of injury.
2.Power Outage-If you look at the key power positions 1B,LF and RF the Braves have a serious lack of power. Last season the Braves playing in a neutral park hit 33 HRs less than the NL average. And they did nothing to address this need.
Fantasy Focus
Jeff Francouer-As you can see from the above stats for Francouer he was awful last season. The big question will be will the 2009 Francouer be closer to the disappointing 2008 version or the promising 2007? Looking closely at his numbers shows two major problems. Firstly his plate discipline has not developed at all. For every walk he stuck out close to 3 times. At this point in his career that stat should be moving in the other direction. The other disturbing number is only 8% of his fly balls went for homers. This stat is rarely goes backwards for a player still in his mid 20s. My feel is Francouer will be better than last year. Its hard to imagine him being worse. But I don't see him being the player most of us thought he was going to become at the end of the 2007 season.
Fun Fact
The Braves had 9 Starting Pitchers start at least 5 games last season. Think back to the Leo Mazzone days their pitchers never seemed to get hurt.
Outlook
The Braves did a good job vastly improving their starting pitchers. But did nothing to address their needs in the outfield and the bullpen. Oddly enough that was the two places this off season where the most free agent bargains were. So my question would be was it cost efficient to pay Derek Lowe all that money when they could have taken that money and a got a power hitting outfielder and a solid reliever. Lets face it they won't contend this year. Atlanta will improve by a few wins but still finish 4th in the NL East.
Monday, February 16, 2009
Arizona Diamondbacks-Preview
2008 Record 82-80
Projected Lineup
C-Chris Synder 16-64-237
1B-Chad Tracy 8-39-267
2B-Felipe Lopez 2-25-234
SS-Stephen Drew 21-67-291
3B-Mark Reynolds 28-97-239
LF-Conor Jackson 12-75-300
CF-Chris Young 22-85-248
RF-Justin Upton 15-42-250
Rotation
Brandon Webb 22-7 3.30
Dan Haren 16-8 3.33
Doug Davis 6-8 4.32
Jon Garland 14-8 4.90
Max Scherzer 0-4 3.05
Bullpen Saves
Chad Qualls 4-8 2.51 9
Tony Pena 3-2 4.33 3
Jon Raush 0-6 6.56 1 - these stats just with Arizona
Whats to Like
1.The core of the offense is all young-Young, Drew, Upton, Jackson and Reynolds should all be improving.
2.Webb and Haren are about as good and risk free as any 1-2 in all of baseball.
Whats Not to Like
1.Strikeouts-Arizona was second in the NL in Ks last season. Mark Reynolds fanned 204 times
2.Losing O-Dogg- Orlando Hudson was a stabilizing force both on defense and in the locker room. He will be missed more than they anticipate. After Hudson went down on Aug.10 the D-Backs were a sub .500 team
Fantasy Focus
Conor Jackson-Jackson is eligible for both 1B and OF. While alot of the young Snakes hitters have awful K/BB ratio Jackson walked almost as many times as he struck out. Also his 22% line drive rate makes his .300 BA something we can expect year after year. Also he is still in the growth phase of his career development arc. The only downside is his HR/FB ratio was only 9%. If he can up that by a few points he can have a nice season.
Fun Fact
The Diamondbacks have cost me more sleep than any other team thanks to their very informative and extremely entertaining broadcasts. Darren Sutton and Mark Grace make baseball fun to watch. While not speaking down to knowledgeable fans.
Outlook
I like this team alot. The NL West is the weakest division in the NL by far. While I fully expect Manny to sign with the Dodgers I still think Arizona will be the class of the division. I see about 90 wins and a division title.
Projected Lineup
C-Chris Synder 16-64-237
1B-Chad Tracy 8-39-267
2B-Felipe Lopez 2-25-234
SS-Stephen Drew 21-67-291
3B-Mark Reynolds 28-97-239
LF-Conor Jackson 12-75-300
CF-Chris Young 22-85-248
RF-Justin Upton 15-42-250
Rotation
Brandon Webb 22-7 3.30
Dan Haren 16-8 3.33
Doug Davis 6-8 4.32
Jon Garland 14-8 4.90
Max Scherzer 0-4 3.05
Bullpen Saves
Chad Qualls 4-8 2.51 9
Tony Pena 3-2 4.33 3
Jon Raush 0-6 6.56 1 - these stats just with Arizona
Whats to Like
1.The core of the offense is all young-Young, Drew, Upton, Jackson and Reynolds should all be improving.
2.Webb and Haren are about as good and risk free as any 1-2 in all of baseball.
Whats Not to Like
1.Strikeouts-Arizona was second in the NL in Ks last season. Mark Reynolds fanned 204 times
2.Losing O-Dogg- Orlando Hudson was a stabilizing force both on defense and in the locker room. He will be missed more than they anticipate. After Hudson went down on Aug.10 the D-Backs were a sub .500 team
Fantasy Focus
Conor Jackson-Jackson is eligible for both 1B and OF. While alot of the young Snakes hitters have awful K/BB ratio Jackson walked almost as many times as he struck out. Also his 22% line drive rate makes his .300 BA something we can expect year after year. Also he is still in the growth phase of his career development arc. The only downside is his HR/FB ratio was only 9%. If he can up that by a few points he can have a nice season.
Fun Fact
The Diamondbacks have cost me more sleep than any other team thanks to their very informative and extremely entertaining broadcasts. Darren Sutton and Mark Grace make baseball fun to watch. While not speaking down to knowledgeable fans.
Outlook
I like this team alot. The NL West is the weakest division in the NL by far. While I fully expect Manny to sign with the Dodgers I still think Arizona will be the class of the division. I see about 90 wins and a division title.
Sunday, February 15, 2009
Team Previews On The Way
After speaking with a few of you I've decided on a format for my team previews. The idea is to give important info in a quick compact report. I'll start with the teams projected lineup. rotation and bullpen. Then I'll talk about whats good about the team and then whats not so good about them. Then I'll talk about one player from that team that I like for fantasy purposes. And finally some random thought about them. I hope you enjoy it. Arizona will be up first.
Friday, February 13, 2009
A New Capitol Punisher
The Nats in need of a pure power hitter signed one of the best getting Adam Dunn for 2 years and about 20 mil. Last season the Nats only hit 117 HRs in what looks like a very good hitters park. With a dreadful pitching staff scoring runs will be critically important if they will have any success whats so ever. Whats a bit complicated is exactly where does Adam Dunn fit in? Popular opinion has the big guy playing everyday at 1st base. Even thought they have the always injured Nick Johnson and Dmitri Young already there it seems Dunn will get the job. I read Jim Bowdin is trying to move Nick Johnson but the interest has been lukeworm at best. Oakland has showed some interest. The Nats outfield is about as crowded and chaotic as The Magic Kingdom on a busy July day. So lets meet the contestants. First we have the talented and very unstable duo of Lastings Milledge and Elijah Dukes. Then we have Josh Willingham who the Nats got very cheaply from Florida. Then we have the duo of talented but underachieving OFs Austin Kearns and Willy Mo Pena. And finally we have Willie Harris. While having depth is a good thing especially if Dukes and or Milledge goes off the deep end this group is a mess. Somehow I can't see Kearns or Pena being happy on the bench. Maybe they can deal Pena for a Starting Pitcher. Getting back to Dunn there is no mystery what the Nats are getting. Dunn hits 40+ homers every year. He also averaged 109 walks a season for the past 3 years. His on base average for the past three years is an outstanding 379. The downside is Dunn has averaged 176 Srikeouts a season. Also Dunn will probably be a below average 1st basemen. Dunn will probably turn into a poor mans Frank Howard. A huge slugger who plays on lousy teams from Washington. If he stays interested for 162 games in that ballpark he could hit 50 HRs.
Do the Math
Its time to play the always fun game of lets compare players. I picked two players. Who are both 35/36 years old that play left field. Player A is a way below average LF, while player B is about average. The stats I'm using are a average of the past three seasons. So lets compare
HR RBI BA R SB OBA SLG
Player A 26 113 291 89 1 355 491
Player B 17 103 292 107 26 389 459
Pretty Close. If your teams needs a little more power you go with Player A. If you need better defense, more speed and a guy who gets on base more you go with Player B. Anyway you look at it there is not a huge difference between the two players. So what if I told you both guys were free agents this off season. You would probably have expected them to get about the same contract, right? Oh how wrong you would be. If you haven't guessed yet Player A is Rual Ibanez who got 30 mil for 3 years. While Player B is Bobby Abreu who only got 5 mil guaranteed for 1 year. I remember very early this off season when the Phils signed Ibanez I commented that the 10 mil a year is pretty much in line with what his market value is probably worth. But I'm uncomfortable giving him the 10 mil in the year he turns 39. Ibanez has been a proven run producer but a decline has to come soon. Players don't continue to produce at a steady pace reaching their 40th birthday. So the Phils knowing they were going to lose Pat Burrell took steps to fill the hole right away. In the process they way overpaid. To think they guaranteed 25 mil more for Ibanez than Abreu. That extra money may impede them on signing a free agent in the next year or two. Or may not allow them to take on extra payroll at the trading deadline to help the year like they did with Joe Blanton this past year. Hindsight is 20/20 but it made a questionable signing an awful one. So Abreu only gets 1 year for between 5-7 mil. Are you kidding? This guy can still be a very productive player. And he fits in absolutely perfectly with the Angels. The Angels outfielders, Vlade, Torii Hunter, Juan Rivera and Gary Matthews are all right handed. Abreu's being a lefty will balence the lineup. He makes immanent sense replacing Garrett Anderson. While his days of stealing 40 bases are behind him he still is a very good base runner. And we all know Mike Scoascia is one of the most aggressive managers in the AL. If Abreu has a good year he could almost double his salary in 2010. I love this move!!!! With the AL West being so close this keeps the Angels ahead of the pack. And looking down the road only paying him 5 mil gives the Angels payroll room to add a player and the trading deadline to fill in any holes they may have.
HR RBI BA R SB OBA SLG
Player A 26 113 291 89 1 355 491
Player B 17 103 292 107 26 389 459
Pretty Close. If your teams needs a little more power you go with Player A. If you need better defense, more speed and a guy who gets on base more you go with Player B. Anyway you look at it there is not a huge difference between the two players. So what if I told you both guys were free agents this off season. You would probably have expected them to get about the same contract, right? Oh how wrong you would be. If you haven't guessed yet Player A is Rual Ibanez who got 30 mil for 3 years. While Player B is Bobby Abreu who only got 5 mil guaranteed for 1 year. I remember very early this off season when the Phils signed Ibanez I commented that the 10 mil a year is pretty much in line with what his market value is probably worth. But I'm uncomfortable giving him the 10 mil in the year he turns 39. Ibanez has been a proven run producer but a decline has to come soon. Players don't continue to produce at a steady pace reaching their 40th birthday. So the Phils knowing they were going to lose Pat Burrell took steps to fill the hole right away. In the process they way overpaid. To think they guaranteed 25 mil more for Ibanez than Abreu. That extra money may impede them on signing a free agent in the next year or two. Or may not allow them to take on extra payroll at the trading deadline to help the year like they did with Joe Blanton this past year. Hindsight is 20/20 but it made a questionable signing an awful one. So Abreu only gets 1 year for between 5-7 mil. Are you kidding? This guy can still be a very productive player. And he fits in absolutely perfectly with the Angels. The Angels outfielders, Vlade, Torii Hunter, Juan Rivera and Gary Matthews are all right handed. Abreu's being a lefty will balence the lineup. He makes immanent sense replacing Garrett Anderson. While his days of stealing 40 bases are behind him he still is a very good base runner. And we all know Mike Scoascia is one of the most aggressive managers in the AL. If Abreu has a good year he could almost double his salary in 2010. I love this move!!!! With the AL West being so close this keeps the Angels ahead of the pack. And looking down the road only paying him 5 mil gives the Angels payroll room to add a player and the trading deadline to fill in any holes they may have.
Wednesday, February 11, 2009
Let the Fun Begin
Our Fantasy Baseball League is up. The league ID is 39768 and the password id dananddev. The draft is scheduled for March 21 @9:00.
Scheduled Managers
1.Mitch
2.Daniel
3.Mike
4.Ray
5.Howie
6.Erik
7.Pat
8.Art
9.Skizzo
10.Steve-Rookie
I think we should keep it at 10. Any thoughts
Scheduled Managers
1.Mitch
2.Daniel
3.Mike
4.Ray
5.Howie
6.Erik
7.Pat
8.Art
9.Skizzo
10.Steve-Rookie
I think we should keep it at 10. Any thoughts
Monday, February 9, 2009
Please Help!!!!!!
Starting about March 1st I plan on doing team previews for all 30 teams. I'm reaching out to anyone who reads this and asking you what would you like to see in team previews? There are many magazines on the newsstand. And tons of info online. So if you were to invest 3-5 minutes reading a team preview what form would you like it to take? Stat heavy? Odd facts? Some historical stuff? Let me know!!! PLEASE.
Sunday, February 8, 2009
Just In Case You Missed It
The past week has been marked by alot of players avoiding arbitration and resigning with their current teams. The largest contract going to Ryan Howard. The Phils bought out his remaining arbitration years for a cool 54 mil for 3 years. But during the past week three players changed uniforms. While none of these signings set the baseball world a blaze they are all interesting for one reason or another
Ty Wigginton-Orioles Is there one player who always seems to have great games when you are at the park? Anytime Daniel was at the Trop Wigginton always did well. If he stayed in Tampa and gave him season tickets Wigginton would be making 10 mil a year. But anyway Wigginton signing with Baltimore is a bit odd. There really is no regular place for him to play. Defensively he plays about the same positions as Aubrey Huff who was fantastic last year. Ideally you platoon Wigginton at third base but both he and Melvin Mora are righties. Other options are have him getting ABs against lefties and benching Luke Scott in left. Or have him DH. In the end Wigginton probably gets about 400 ABs playing various positions. To me in a perfect world he would be much better suited to be a part time player on a better team.
Tom Gordan-Diamondbacks-Gordan joins Chad Quallis, Jon Rauch and Tony Pena at the back end of the Arizona pen. If Gordan is healthy he adds another arm, if not there is not much lost. The only problem I see is all four of the above pitchers are all right handed. It should be very interesting to see how Bob Melvin manges the end of games. This situation lends itself to playing the hot hand. The NL West should be very close and any little improvements may lead to winning the division. All I know is I'll probably be up way too late watching them listening to my favorite broadcaster Mark Grace.
Andruw Jones-Rangers-This move surprised me. While Jones is costing Texas next to nothing it seemed Texas was looking to have youth in their outfield. Assuming Jones is somewhere between the guy who hit 51HRs and the guy who hit 158 he would be their CF. If thats the case Josh Hamilton then probably gets moved to right. And Nelson Cruz who they seemed to like the RF either goes to left and competes with David Murphy or goes to DH. In addition the Rangers also have Marlon Byrd in the outfield. And the DH position will probably be manned by Hank Blalock and Frank Catalanotto. Anyway you look at it they have no shortage of bats. Jone's main value may come in if he can give them gold glove quality play in center. Thus cutting down the amount of runs a very questionable Texas staff gives up. As an FYI while I can handle most D-Backs questions any Rangers questions I'll defer to Mike who knows alot more about them than I do.
Ty Wigginton-Orioles Is there one player who always seems to have great games when you are at the park? Anytime Daniel was at the Trop Wigginton always did well. If he stayed in Tampa and gave him season tickets Wigginton would be making 10 mil a year. But anyway Wigginton signing with Baltimore is a bit odd. There really is no regular place for him to play. Defensively he plays about the same positions as Aubrey Huff who was fantastic last year. Ideally you platoon Wigginton at third base but both he and Melvin Mora are righties. Other options are have him getting ABs against lefties and benching Luke Scott in left. Or have him DH. In the end Wigginton probably gets about 400 ABs playing various positions. To me in a perfect world he would be much better suited to be a part time player on a better team.
Tom Gordan-Diamondbacks-Gordan joins Chad Quallis, Jon Rauch and Tony Pena at the back end of the Arizona pen. If Gordan is healthy he adds another arm, if not there is not much lost. The only problem I see is all four of the above pitchers are all right handed. It should be very interesting to see how Bob Melvin manges the end of games. This situation lends itself to playing the hot hand. The NL West should be very close and any little improvements may lead to winning the division. All I know is I'll probably be up way too late watching them listening to my favorite broadcaster Mark Grace.
Andruw Jones-Rangers-This move surprised me. While Jones is costing Texas next to nothing it seemed Texas was looking to have youth in their outfield. Assuming Jones is somewhere between the guy who hit 51HRs and the guy who hit 158 he would be their CF. If thats the case Josh Hamilton then probably gets moved to right. And Nelson Cruz who they seemed to like the RF either goes to left and competes with David Murphy or goes to DH. In addition the Rangers also have Marlon Byrd in the outfield. And the DH position will probably be manned by Hank Blalock and Frank Catalanotto. Anyway you look at it they have no shortage of bats. Jone's main value may come in if he can give them gold glove quality play in center. Thus cutting down the amount of runs a very questionable Texas staff gives up. As an FYI while I can handle most D-Backs questions any Rangers questions I'll defer to Mike who knows alot more about them than I do.
Friday, February 6, 2009
Its Greek To Me
Back in the early days of sabermetrics we found out you can very accurately predict a team won-loss record by knowing how many runs a team scores and gives up. This is called the Pythagorean Formula. Over the years this formula has proved to be very accurate. Of the 30 teams last year only 5 teams were more or less than 5 games from their predicted result. It has also been proven that in virtually all cases a team that gets alot more wins than their Pythagoreean formula ultimately regresses. While teams that have less wins end up winning more games the next year. So who are those 5 teams.
Teams that Should Improve
1.Toronto Blue Jays -7
2.Seattle Mariners-6
3,Atlanta Braves -6
Pythagorean does not account for free agent defections and injuries. With that said I don't see Toronto improving. But I see the other two improving by more than six wins each
Teams that Should Take a Step Back
1.Los Angeles Angels+12
2.Houston Astros +9
I think the Angels can drop 10-15 games this season. And I also think the Astros back track.
The reason why I introduced this is I saw a interesting article that used Pythagorean to predict the 2009 season. What they did was estamate playing time for the players that are now on each team and had a computer estamate the amount of runs scored and runs allowed. As the article said signing a Manny, Adam Dunn or Bobby Abreu can significantly alter the results. But here on a chilly Florida night its fun to see what we got.
AL East
1.Tampa Bay Rays 95 67
1.NY Yankees 95 67
3.Boston Red Sox 93 69
4.Toronto Blue Jays 82 80
5.Baltimore Orioles 73 89
AL Central
1.Minnesota Twins 90 72
2.Cleveland Indians 86 76
3.Detroit Tigers 84 78
4.Chicago White Sox 78 84
5.Kansas City Royals 73 89
AL West
1.LA Angels 92 70
2.Oakland As 84 78
3.Texas Rangers 78 84
4.Seattle Mariners 74 88
NL East
1.Philadelphia Phillies 96 66
2.NY Mets 92 70
3.Atlanta Braves 86 76
4.Florida Marlins 83 79
5.Washington Nats 66 96
NL Central
1.Chicago Cubs 95 67
2.Milwaukee Brewers 88 74
3.St. Louis Cards 85 77
4.Houston Astros 83 79
5.Cincinnati Reds 74 88
6.Pittsburg Pirates 70 92
NL West
1.LA Dodgers 88 74
2.Arizona D-Backs 84 78
3.Colorado Rockies 82 80
4.SF Giants 78 84
5.SD Padres 68 94
Just something to think about. As of now its pretty close I think.
Teams that Should Improve
1.Toronto Blue Jays -7
2.Seattle Mariners-6
3,Atlanta Braves -6
Pythagorean does not account for free agent defections and injuries. With that said I don't see Toronto improving. But I see the other two improving by more than six wins each
Teams that Should Take a Step Back
1.Los Angeles Angels+12
2.Houston Astros +9
I think the Angels can drop 10-15 games this season. And I also think the Astros back track.
The reason why I introduced this is I saw a interesting article that used Pythagorean to predict the 2009 season. What they did was estamate playing time for the players that are now on each team and had a computer estamate the amount of runs scored and runs allowed. As the article said signing a Manny, Adam Dunn or Bobby Abreu can significantly alter the results. But here on a chilly Florida night its fun to see what we got.
AL East
1.Tampa Bay Rays 95 67
1.NY Yankees 95 67
3.Boston Red Sox 93 69
4.Toronto Blue Jays 82 80
5.Baltimore Orioles 73 89
AL Central
1.Minnesota Twins 90 72
2.Cleveland Indians 86 76
3.Detroit Tigers 84 78
4.Chicago White Sox 78 84
5.Kansas City Royals 73 89
AL West
1.LA Angels 92 70
2.Oakland As 84 78
3.Texas Rangers 78 84
4.Seattle Mariners 74 88
NL East
1.Philadelphia Phillies 96 66
2.NY Mets 92 70
3.Atlanta Braves 86 76
4.Florida Marlins 83 79
5.Washington Nats 66 96
NL Central
1.Chicago Cubs 95 67
2.Milwaukee Brewers 88 74
3.St. Louis Cards 85 77
4.Houston Astros 83 79
5.Cincinnati Reds 74 88
6.Pittsburg Pirates 70 92
NL West
1.LA Dodgers 88 74
2.Arizona D-Backs 84 78
3.Colorado Rockies 82 80
4.SF Giants 78 84
5.SD Padres 68 94
Just something to think about. As of now its pretty close I think.
Thursday, February 5, 2009
First 3 Rounds
With only about 1 week away from pitchers and catchers the mock draft season is starting to heat up. Yahoo had a mock draft and the following was the top 3 rounds. By the way it was for a 12 team standard 5x5 league
Round 1
1.Hanley Ramirez
2.Alex Rodriguez
3.Albert Pujols
4.Jose Reyes
5.David Wright
6.Ryan Bruan
7.Grady Sizemore
8.Josh Hamilton
9.Miguel Cabrera
10.Ian Kinsler
11.Jimmy Rollins
12.Mark Teixeira
Round 2
13.Tim Lincecum
14.Ryan Howard
15.Chase Utley
16.Evan Longoria
17.BJ Upton
18.Johan Santana
19.Prince Fielder
20.Carlos Beltran
21.Manny Ramirez
22.Lance Berkman
23.Dustin Pedroia
24.Carlos Lee
Round 3
25.Ichiro Suzuki
26.Alfonso Soriano
27.Matt Holliday
28.Justin Mourneau
29.Carlos Quentin
30.Brandon Phillips
31.CC Sabathia
32.Brian Roberts
33.Carl Crawford
34.Jason Bay
35.Aramis Ramirez
36.Nick Markakis
Round 1
1.Hanley Ramirez
2.Alex Rodriguez
3.Albert Pujols
4.Jose Reyes
5.David Wright
6.Ryan Bruan
7.Grady Sizemore
8.Josh Hamilton
9.Miguel Cabrera
10.Ian Kinsler
11.Jimmy Rollins
12.Mark Teixeira
Round 2
13.Tim Lincecum
14.Ryan Howard
15.Chase Utley
16.Evan Longoria
17.BJ Upton
18.Johan Santana
19.Prince Fielder
20.Carlos Beltran
21.Manny Ramirez
22.Lance Berkman
23.Dustin Pedroia
24.Carlos Lee
Round 3
25.Ichiro Suzuki
26.Alfonso Soriano
27.Matt Holliday
28.Justin Mourneau
29.Carlos Quentin
30.Brandon Phillips
31.CC Sabathia
32.Brian Roberts
33.Carl Crawford
34.Jason Bay
35.Aramis Ramirez
36.Nick Markakis
Monday, February 2, 2009
Ollie Stays Put
Oliver Perez resigned with the Mets today for 36 mil over 3 years. The bottom line is the Mets are a better with him than without him. The lenght of the contract and the money is a fair deal for both sides. The Mets rotation is now Johan, Maine, Perez, Pelfrey and either Redding, Garcia or Niese. Overall its not bad. But after Johan their are questions about everyone else. As for Perez he is inconsistent. Saying Perez is inconsistent is like saying Shakespeare can write. Perez has terrific stuff. And any 27 year old lefty who can throw 90 will garner interest. So lets look objectively at Perez. The good is he is capable of throwing unhittable stuff at any time. When he is on few lefties are better. But his main problem is twofold. Last season he averaged close to 5 walks a game. That figure makes it very difficult to be a consistent winner. But even looking past the 5 walks Perez tends to be wild in the strike zone. When he gets behind too often he'll throw a pitch with terrible location which turns into a longball. Which brings us to Perez's second problem. Ollie is a flyball pitcher and when he makes mistakes they tend to cost him runs. Less walks and better control can turn him in a allstar. An interesting thing to look for early in the season will be how will Citi Field play? If its like Shea and is a pitchers park Ollie will be more valuable but if the ball carries it could spell trouble.
Sunday, February 1, 2009
How Do You Spell Releif Part 3
Over the past two blog entries I have talked about relief pitching. The first essay told of my disgust how bullpens are managed today. And in part 2 I went over a quick history of bullpen usage in MLB. This morning in the final part of this series I want to compare usage levels of todays best with yesterdays best and make a final plea to reason.
I have two main gripes with bullpen usage now. The first is how much these guys are used. Simply put closers today are babied. While I'm certain teams will tell you since these guys are now highly paid we need to carefully manage their workload. So my question to those guys is does only having your best relieve pitcher pitch 1 inning 3 to 4 times a week prevent injury? While I'm no doctor I can say with virtual certainty teams are not preventing injury to closers with such limited work loads. Over the past few seasons we've seen injuries to closers with very carefully manged workloads like Billy Wagner, Trevor Hoffman and Brad Lidge. If you go back into history and go to what I call the Golden Age of Relievers those guys pitched much more and most of the successful ones had long careers. The injury rate of relievers in the 70s did not seem to be any worse than today. So if you throw out the injury argument why are those guys only facing 3-4 hitters per game? Yesterday I had some free time and decided to do a little experiment. I choose 5 of the most successful closers of the last 5 years, Mariano Rivera, Francisco Rodriguez, Johnathan Papelbon, Joe Nathan and Jose Valverde. I looked at the average number of batters they faced per appearance. I took numbers for the last 5 years(3 for Papelbon and 4 for Jenks). And then I did the same thing for 5 closers of the golder era. For these guys I picked the 5 year period they were most effective(they had to be 5 consecutive seasons). The 5 guys I selected were Bruce Sutter, Goose Gossage, Dan Quizenberry, Rollie Fingers and Mike Marshall.
Today Average Batters Faced Per Appearance
M. Rivera 4.30
K-Rod 4.46
J. Pabelbon 3.94
J. Nathan 3.92
B. Jenks 4.45
It does not take a genius to figure out that if you are averaging about 4 batters faced per outing you are probably getting 3 outs and allowing 1 baserunner. Which makes sense because these guys WHIPs are around 1
Golden Age
B. Sutter 6.59
G. Goosage 7.02
D. Quizenberry 6.99
R. Fingers 6.65
M. Marshall 7.93
Looking at the above chart shows are very large difference. Also think about the 3 under 7 Sutter, Fingers and especially Quiz were EXTREME groundball pitchers who probably threw alot of double play balls which would suppress the batters faced per appearance a bit. As a group the above averaged facing 7.10 batters per appearance while todays closers faced 4.21. Their average appearance is 41% shorter than the 70s group. The 3 extra batters translates into 1 inning when a team does not have to use a middle of the road reliever. And if a team like the Red Sox have a key part of the game in the 6th or 7th they can bring in J-Pap to preserve the lead or not let the game get away. Let him go 2 or 3 and then they can have Manny Delcarmen finish or Francona can play matchups. If they are up by 2 or 3 runs at that point the chances of surrendering the lead is minute. Make Sense.
The other area that I find illogical is when to use your best bullpen weapon. Only bringing closers in the 9th if your up by 1-3 runs is great if they are on your fantasy team but makes no sense in real life. Like I said earlier the idea should be to win games NOT get your closers saves. Teams can win or lose games during all 9 innings not just the 9th. While planning ahead an inning or two is critical in baseball. Recognizing the key point in a game is also critical. If a manager botches innings 6-8 the closer becomes a non-factor in the 9th. If your closer is really your best reliever shouldn't he be in during the most important parts of the game? Knowing that each game is different. This crap that its important for all members of the bullpen to know exactly what their role is garbage to me. These guys are all highly skilled very competitive people or they wouldn't by Major Leaguers. Their job is simply to get hitters out whether its the 2nd, 5th, 7th or 9th inning. Teams are missing the boat/ Think about this. If you owned a business and had to send one of your salesman out on a critical sales call that can mean big bucks who are you going to send? I would think your best salesperson. Another smaller example is when I write the schedule for the store its no accident my best employees get the most hours while my worst employees get the least amount of hours. Bullpens should be the same way. Out of 30 teams last season only 6 had their save leader throw the most innings. And oddly enough two of those six teams leaders were guys that lost the closers role at some point in the season.
So thats my case. I'm sure its more than most of you have ever thought of managing the bullpen. So can things change? Sure. But we will need one team to rip up the "book" and try something different. You just do things the way they used to be done when it was done correctly. Younger fans who don't know any better and older broadcasters know don't know any better will yell and scream. All it takes is one team. But if there is something we all know about baseball is it does not like change.
This 3 part series was aimed at making everybody think a little. I really hoped you enjoyed it. Comments are very much looked foward to.
I have two main gripes with bullpen usage now. The first is how much these guys are used. Simply put closers today are babied. While I'm certain teams will tell you since these guys are now highly paid we need to carefully manage their workload. So my question to those guys is does only having your best relieve pitcher pitch 1 inning 3 to 4 times a week prevent injury? While I'm no doctor I can say with virtual certainty teams are not preventing injury to closers with such limited work loads. Over the past few seasons we've seen injuries to closers with very carefully manged workloads like Billy Wagner, Trevor Hoffman and Brad Lidge. If you go back into history and go to what I call the Golden Age of Relievers those guys pitched much more and most of the successful ones had long careers. The injury rate of relievers in the 70s did not seem to be any worse than today. So if you throw out the injury argument why are those guys only facing 3-4 hitters per game? Yesterday I had some free time and decided to do a little experiment. I choose 5 of the most successful closers of the last 5 years, Mariano Rivera, Francisco Rodriguez, Johnathan Papelbon, Joe Nathan and Jose Valverde. I looked at the average number of batters they faced per appearance. I took numbers for the last 5 years(3 for Papelbon and 4 for Jenks). And then I did the same thing for 5 closers of the golder era. For these guys I picked the 5 year period they were most effective(they had to be 5 consecutive seasons). The 5 guys I selected were Bruce Sutter, Goose Gossage, Dan Quizenberry, Rollie Fingers and Mike Marshall.
Today Average Batters Faced Per Appearance
M. Rivera 4.30
K-Rod 4.46
J. Pabelbon 3.94
J. Nathan 3.92
B. Jenks 4.45
It does not take a genius to figure out that if you are averaging about 4 batters faced per outing you are probably getting 3 outs and allowing 1 baserunner. Which makes sense because these guys WHIPs are around 1
Golden Age
B. Sutter 6.59
G. Goosage 7.02
D. Quizenberry 6.99
R. Fingers 6.65
M. Marshall 7.93
Looking at the above chart shows are very large difference. Also think about the 3 under 7 Sutter, Fingers and especially Quiz were EXTREME groundball pitchers who probably threw alot of double play balls which would suppress the batters faced per appearance a bit. As a group the above averaged facing 7.10 batters per appearance while todays closers faced 4.21. Their average appearance is 41% shorter than the 70s group. The 3 extra batters translates into 1 inning when a team does not have to use a middle of the road reliever. And if a team like the Red Sox have a key part of the game in the 6th or 7th they can bring in J-Pap to preserve the lead or not let the game get away. Let him go 2 or 3 and then they can have Manny Delcarmen finish or Francona can play matchups. If they are up by 2 or 3 runs at that point the chances of surrendering the lead is minute. Make Sense.
The other area that I find illogical is when to use your best bullpen weapon. Only bringing closers in the 9th if your up by 1-3 runs is great if they are on your fantasy team but makes no sense in real life. Like I said earlier the idea should be to win games NOT get your closers saves. Teams can win or lose games during all 9 innings not just the 9th. While planning ahead an inning or two is critical in baseball. Recognizing the key point in a game is also critical. If a manager botches innings 6-8 the closer becomes a non-factor in the 9th. If your closer is really your best reliever shouldn't he be in during the most important parts of the game? Knowing that each game is different. This crap that its important for all members of the bullpen to know exactly what their role is garbage to me. These guys are all highly skilled very competitive people or they wouldn't by Major Leaguers. Their job is simply to get hitters out whether its the 2nd, 5th, 7th or 9th inning. Teams are missing the boat/ Think about this. If you owned a business and had to send one of your salesman out on a critical sales call that can mean big bucks who are you going to send? I would think your best salesperson. Another smaller example is when I write the schedule for the store its no accident my best employees get the most hours while my worst employees get the least amount of hours. Bullpens should be the same way. Out of 30 teams last season only 6 had their save leader throw the most innings. And oddly enough two of those six teams leaders were guys that lost the closers role at some point in the season.
So thats my case. I'm sure its more than most of you have ever thought of managing the bullpen. So can things change? Sure. But we will need one team to rip up the "book" and try something different. You just do things the way they used to be done when it was done correctly. Younger fans who don't know any better and older broadcasters know don't know any better will yell and scream. All it takes is one team. But if there is something we all know about baseball is it does not like change.
This 3 part series was aimed at making everybody think a little. I really hoped you enjoyed it. Comments are very much looked foward to.
Saturday, January 31, 2009
How Do You Spell Relief Part 2
Yesterday I wrote about my frustration regarding the way teams use their bullpens in 2009. I won't be redundant except to say I firmly believe teams lose games every year because of irrational use of relief pitchers. So how did we get to this point of insanity? Like any good student of history can tell you we can't know where we are going until we know where we've been. I took some time yesterday reviewing the saves leaders from 1900 to the present. I'm going to break it down into 5 eras. I'll talk about bullpen usage in that era and quote some numbers you might find interesting.
1900-1925-This is the era where starting pitchers were expected to finish what they started. If the starter did not go the distance there was a problem. There were a couple of reasons for this. 1.Rosters were much smaller-the typical team only carried less players than they do today 2.Since teams had less players the relievers were either starters who did not start that day or if the team was way behind they used the guys who were not good enough to start. There was no rotation like we know today.3.Also pitchers in the early 20th century as a rule were much better hitters than later. Most pitchers were as good hitters as the 2 or 3 bench players teams used. So for the above reason saves were relatively rare events. 4.The term pitch count was unheard of for another 80 years. How come I can't imagine John McGraw going out to Christy Mathewson and saying your pitch count is up to 120 its time to come out. Among the league leaders in saves during this era were HOFers Ed Walsh, 3 Finger Brown, Cy Young and Iron Joe McGinnity who led the league 3 times. I went through each decade and figured out the average amount of saves the league leader had.
1900-09 4.5 Frank Arellanes 8
1910-19 7.1 Chief Bender and Three Finger Brown 13 As a foot note when both of these pitchers saved 13 games they each won 21 the same season.
1925-1949-While starting pitchers were still expected to pitch complete games the idea of relieve pitchers was starting to take shape. HOF pitchers only led the league in saves twice after 1931. Carl Hubbell in 1934 with 8 and Dizzy Dean in 1936 with 11. A few interesting things jump out during that era 1.In the 12 year period between 1923-34 the Washington Senators had the league leader in saves 9 years. Firpo Mayberry 5x, Jack Russell 2x, Alan Russell 1x and Garland Braxton once. None of the above pitchers are household names. During this period the Senators only won one pennant in 1924 and were mediocre for the rest of the time. Also oddly enough over the 12 years they had 4 managers. I'd love to know who in the Senator organization had this idea. Also during this period we see the first Yankee relief star, Johnny Murphy.From 1938-42 Murphy led the AL in saves 4 out of 5 years. While he must have had more opportunities than any one else its telling the best team in baseball decided to devote someone full time to finish games. With that said his saves totals for those 4 years were 11,19,15 and 11. Hardly eye popping numbers today.
1920-29 8.0 Firpo Mayberry 22
1930-39 10.2 Johnny Murphy 19
1940-49 13.5 Joe Page 27
1950-1975-This is the era when we started to see every team see the value of having 1 or 2 relieve specialists. By the 60s these guys were very valued members of the team. Above you see Joe Page has 27 saves for the Yankeees in 1949 but I carefully chose 1950 to start this era because in 1950 Jim Konstanty of the Whiz Kids Phillies had the best year of any releiver in history up to that point. Konstanty won MVP for his work in the pennant winning year. He won 16 games, saved 22 and finished an amazing 62 games. His season must have revolutionized baseball. During this era some specialists especially in the NL started popping up like Al Brazie of the Cards, Clem Labine of the Dodgers, Roy Face of the Pirates and Phil Regan of the Cubs. All these guys led the NL in saves twice. What I found a bit odd is no pitcher during the 60s in the AL led the league in saves more than once. But as we reached the end of this era you needed over 30 saves to lead the league. As John Hiller had 38 for the Tigers in 1973 and Sparky Lyle had 35 in 1972 for the Yankees.
1950-59 17.8 Ellis Kinder 27
1960-69 25.5 Ron Perranowski 31
1970-79 30.6 John Hiller 38
1975-1990-To me this is the golden age of relievers. While guys did not rack up 50 save seasons they were used correctly. Remember the concept of fireman. Your best relieve pitcher comes in to "put out a fire" Think back to the 70s. The Yankees never waited until the 9th inning to put in Sparky Lyle. Goose Gossage did not become a 3 out pitchers until the 90s. It was nothing for guys like Lyle, Sutter, Gossage, McGraw,Fingers and Quizenberry to pitch 2 or 3 innings. That was the norm not the exception. These guys were used MUCH more effectively than today. Managers did not manage by who would be in the game in a save situation. They managed with 1 over laying thought which was how can I best win this game. And the theory that relief pitchers should not throw too many innings is proven false as many firemen from the 70s had very long careers. Some pitching into their 40s. For those of us older than 20 think back to your childhood can you imagine managers not using their best in a tie game. The thought would be absurd. Mike Marshall in LA used to come in at all points late in the game. And I can remember whoever was managing the Mets never waited until the 9th to bring in Tug McGraw.
1980-89 37.4 Dan Qizenberry and Dennis Eckersley 45
1990-Present-While I can't be certain I believe Tony LaRussa is to blame for the current state of relievers. I think he turned Dennis Eckersley from a fireman to a closer. And like most ideas that seem good at the time they tend to get perverted over time. Eckersley was successful as a closer. But he also would have been successful if he was used like the firemen of the 70s. Eck was just lights out. By the way oddly enough thought the 80s no AL pitcher lead the league in saves more than once. In part 3 I'll talk alot more about where we are now. But rest assured somewhere between 1989 and now things have gone horrible wrong. Save numbers are up. But logic, common sense and good baseball are down.
1990-89 44.0 Bobby Thigpen 57
2000-08 46.3 Francisco Rodriguez 62
1900-1925-This is the era where starting pitchers were expected to finish what they started. If the starter did not go the distance there was a problem. There were a couple of reasons for this. 1.Rosters were much smaller-the typical team only carried less players than they do today 2.Since teams had less players the relievers were either starters who did not start that day or if the team was way behind they used the guys who were not good enough to start. There was no rotation like we know today.3.Also pitchers in the early 20th century as a rule were much better hitters than later. Most pitchers were as good hitters as the 2 or 3 bench players teams used. So for the above reason saves were relatively rare events. 4.The term pitch count was unheard of for another 80 years. How come I can't imagine John McGraw going out to Christy Mathewson and saying your pitch count is up to 120 its time to come out. Among the league leaders in saves during this era were HOFers Ed Walsh, 3 Finger Brown, Cy Young and Iron Joe McGinnity who led the league 3 times. I went through each decade and figured out the average amount of saves the league leader had.
1900-09 4.5 Frank Arellanes 8
1910-19 7.1 Chief Bender and Three Finger Brown 13 As a foot note when both of these pitchers saved 13 games they each won 21 the same season.
1925-1949-While starting pitchers were still expected to pitch complete games the idea of relieve pitchers was starting to take shape. HOF pitchers only led the league in saves twice after 1931. Carl Hubbell in 1934 with 8 and Dizzy Dean in 1936 with 11. A few interesting things jump out during that era 1.In the 12 year period between 1923-34 the Washington Senators had the league leader in saves 9 years. Firpo Mayberry 5x, Jack Russell 2x, Alan Russell 1x and Garland Braxton once. None of the above pitchers are household names. During this period the Senators only won one pennant in 1924 and were mediocre for the rest of the time. Also oddly enough over the 12 years they had 4 managers. I'd love to know who in the Senator organization had this idea. Also during this period we see the first Yankee relief star, Johnny Murphy.From 1938-42 Murphy led the AL in saves 4 out of 5 years. While he must have had more opportunities than any one else its telling the best team in baseball decided to devote someone full time to finish games. With that said his saves totals for those 4 years were 11,19,15 and 11. Hardly eye popping numbers today.
1920-29 8.0 Firpo Mayberry 22
1930-39 10.2 Johnny Murphy 19
1940-49 13.5 Joe Page 27
1950-1975-This is the era when we started to see every team see the value of having 1 or 2 relieve specialists. By the 60s these guys were very valued members of the team. Above you see Joe Page has 27 saves for the Yankeees in 1949 but I carefully chose 1950 to start this era because in 1950 Jim Konstanty of the Whiz Kids Phillies had the best year of any releiver in history up to that point. Konstanty won MVP for his work in the pennant winning year. He won 16 games, saved 22 and finished an amazing 62 games. His season must have revolutionized baseball. During this era some specialists especially in the NL started popping up like Al Brazie of the Cards, Clem Labine of the Dodgers, Roy Face of the Pirates and Phil Regan of the Cubs. All these guys led the NL in saves twice. What I found a bit odd is no pitcher during the 60s in the AL led the league in saves more than once. But as we reached the end of this era you needed over 30 saves to lead the league. As John Hiller had 38 for the Tigers in 1973 and Sparky Lyle had 35 in 1972 for the Yankees.
1950-59 17.8 Ellis Kinder 27
1960-69 25.5 Ron Perranowski 31
1970-79 30.6 John Hiller 38
1975-1990-To me this is the golden age of relievers. While guys did not rack up 50 save seasons they were used correctly. Remember the concept of fireman. Your best relieve pitcher comes in to "put out a fire" Think back to the 70s. The Yankees never waited until the 9th inning to put in Sparky Lyle. Goose Gossage did not become a 3 out pitchers until the 90s. It was nothing for guys like Lyle, Sutter, Gossage, McGraw,Fingers and Quizenberry to pitch 2 or 3 innings. That was the norm not the exception. These guys were used MUCH more effectively than today. Managers did not manage by who would be in the game in a save situation. They managed with 1 over laying thought which was how can I best win this game. And the theory that relief pitchers should not throw too many innings is proven false as many firemen from the 70s had very long careers. Some pitching into their 40s. For those of us older than 20 think back to your childhood can you imagine managers not using their best in a tie game. The thought would be absurd. Mike Marshall in LA used to come in at all points late in the game. And I can remember whoever was managing the Mets never waited until the 9th to bring in Tug McGraw.
1980-89 37.4 Dan Qizenberry and Dennis Eckersley 45
1990-Present-While I can't be certain I believe Tony LaRussa is to blame for the current state of relievers. I think he turned Dennis Eckersley from a fireman to a closer. And like most ideas that seem good at the time they tend to get perverted over time. Eckersley was successful as a closer. But he also would have been successful if he was used like the firemen of the 70s. Eck was just lights out. By the way oddly enough thought the 80s no AL pitcher lead the league in saves more than once. In part 3 I'll talk alot more about where we are now. But rest assured somewhere between 1989 and now things have gone horrible wrong. Save numbers are up. But logic, common sense and good baseball are down.
1990-89 44.0 Bobby Thigpen 57
2000-08 46.3 Francisco Rodriguez 62
Friday, January 30, 2009
How Do You Spell Relief Part 1
How often has this happened to you? Your watching a game and a manger does something that you just don't get. If you are like me you swear at the TV and wish once and for all they would start to manager with logic instead of blindly following "the book". This happens to me with the way teams manage their bullpen more than any other phase of the game. If you think logically about it the current use of bullpens defy logic. Just so we are all on the same page let me show you what I'm talking about. Every team has a closer. This guy is suppose to be the teams best relief pitcher. BUT you only bring him in if you are ahead in the 9th inning by 1-3 runs. Think about this this valuable commodities role is defined by a statistic!!! And now things are getting even worse. Its not bad enough where you have a closer now we need a setup man to only pitch the 8th. It makes me want to scream!!! Here is a hypothitical scenario. The Mets are playing Philadelphia. they are winning 4-3 in the 6th. The Phils have 1 out and the bases loaded. John Maine the starter has run out of gas. Jerry Manual sees Chase Utley and Ryan Howard coming up. So what does he do? He brings in Pedro Feliciano to pitch to the lefties right. But does this make any sense? Feliciano is either the 3rd or 4th best reliever the Mets have. In this situation with the game on the line WHY should the Mets bring in anything but thier best. If I'm Manual I'm bringing in K-Rod right there and then. I want my best trying to preserve the lead. Not my third best. When K-Rod gets Utley and Howard out he could go one more inning then give the ball to Putz. In other words the most critical part of most games does not happen in the ninth inning. It occurs at some point leading up to the ninth. This point can not be overstated. Baseball is a game of 9 innings all of them having the same value. You don't get extra runs by scoring in the 9th. Many more games are lost in the 6th, 7th and 8th by manger being stubborn than are saved in the 9th by saving their best to only get the last three outs How critical is it to save your best to only get 3 outs when your up by 2 or 3. It drives me nuts why managers won't put in their best guy if the score is tied. Though I did see it every now and then last year. Most teams would rather put in option 3 or 4 in a tied game. I firmly believe ALL teams lose games every year by screwing up how to properly use the pen. I don't know who was the genius who created the closer role but they did smart baseball a huge disservice. In addition whats absolutely drives me nuts is EVERY team does this more or less. God Bless Joe Madden for how he used he Rays relievers after Percival got injured. He probably did the best job or any manger last year handling his pen. Also kudos to Terry Francona for letting Johnathan Papelbon pitch in the 8th inning. So how did we get to this point of madness and where are we going? Thats what the next two entries in this series will be about. Part 2 will be a history of bullpen uses. And part 3 will be a look at bullpen usage in 2009. As usual comments are welcomed more than you know.
Wednesday, January 28, 2009
Garland to D-Backs
Jon Garland signed a 1 year deal for over 6 mil to pitch for Arizona. First things first. I don't like Jon Garland. Its nothing personal I'm sure he's a nice guy. Its the kind of pitcher Garland is that I don't like. That is the soft tossing hurler who doesn't strike out many hitters. The margin for error for guys like Garland is much smaller than guys who strikeout alot of hitters. Garland can be a poster child for why as a fan you can't trust win-loss record as a way be evaluate pitchers. Since 2002 Garland has a record of 96-74. Pretty good huh? Now lets look a little deeper. In the past three years he is only 56/98 in quality starts for a very average 57%. In 7 out of the past 8 years his ERA was over 4.22. For his career he only had 1 season when his WHIP was under 1.3. Statistical studies have consistently showed if you don't average 5 Ks per 9 innings its very tough to win on a consistent basis. In my humble opinion he has let a charmed life who may not be able to continue his winning ways. For the D-Backs to invest 6 million dollars they must have really wanted him. My knowledge of Arizona is probably better than it should be. I admit I stayed up way past my bed time watching them so I can hear Mark Grace announce games. As of today Arizona is as good as any one in the worst division in baseball. Webb and Haren are fantastic. Doug Davis is solid when cancer free. The back of the rotation with Max Scherzer and Yusmeiro Petit are talented but questionable. So I can see why Josh Byrnes wanted to get Garland. I don't think its a great move but its understandable. The key to Arizona season will be how their young hitters mature. If the combination of Justin Upton, Stephen Drew, Connor Jackson and Mark Reynolds hit like they are capable they should contend Jon Garland or not.
Monday, January 26, 2009
Player For Sale-CHEAP
When John Steinbeck wrote the Winter of Discontent he did not have baseball in mind. But the way this winter is playing out he might as well. With about three weeks until pitchers and catchers there are still a lot of quality free agents still unsigned. Except for the collusion years baseball has seen nothing like this. I remember early in this off season when some baseball people said the sluggish economy will not effect baseball. Well they could not have been more wrong. While the Yankees spend huge dollars the rest of the league has scaled back spending. Except for the long term contracts given to young players buying out arbitration years like the one given to Zack Grienke today veterans are finding the free agent waters very disappointing. I'm certain players will begin to sign in mass in the next week or so. But since really nothing has happened what I thought I'd do is list one player from each position and a couple of pitchers and give them to the club that makes the most sense. THESE ARE NOT PREDICTIONS ON WHERE I THINK THEY ARE GOING!!!!!!!!!! Only a fun little exercise on if it was a perfect world. And as we all know the world is rarely perfect.
C-Jason Veritek-This is easy. Veritek belongs on the Red Sox. He is the heart and soul of that team. Even though he only hit 220 last year he is more valuable to them than any other team. I'd be stunned if he ends up anywhere else.
1B-Kevin Millar-Millar belongs with the Angels. With Tex in New York Kendry Morales is the starter. Millar would give the Angels depth if Morales does not produce. Millar is also a great locker room guy.
2B-Orlando Hudson-O-Dog belongs on the Mets. I know the problems about no one wanting to take Castillo's contract but the Mets are in a position where they should not have to worry about a extra couple of million in payroll. Either release Castillo or keep him for pinch running or depth. Hudson saves runs on D and like Millar is a great clubhouse guy. Something the Mets really need.
SS-Orlando Cabrera-Cabrera goes to the Reds. If we learned anything from 2008 if you have very good starting pitching and good defense improvements are possible. The Reds have Volquez, Cueto, Harang, Arroyo and Bailey. Also a young lineup. Cabrera would plug up their biggest hole.
3B-Joe Crede-I'm sending Crede to Minnesota. The Twins have no real 3rd baseman. Last year they got by with a mix and match of Buscher, Lamb and Harris. Crede would add power and if he still is not healthy at least the Twins can go back to the trio I mentioned.
OF-Manny Ramirez-This one is also easy. Manny belongs with the Dodgers. While LA has some excellent young pitching the offense is not very threatening without Manny. With Manny the Dodgers are probably the favorites in the NL West. Besides doesn't Manny belong in LA??
OF-Adam Dunn-Dunn goes to the Nats. Washington only hit 117 HRs last year. And Nats park looks to be a good hitters park. Dunn will hit his usual 40 and probably more.
OF-Bobby Abreu-Abreu goes to the Giants. With the improvements the Giants have made all they need is more offense to compete. Since Manny's staying in LA Abreu is the best plan B. With that rotation and a little more run scoring contention is not that far fetched.
SP-Oliver Perez-The Mets need him. Signing Freddie Garcia and Tim Redding does nothing to solve the Mets need for a front line starter. Perez is Jekyll and Hyde and I don't think the Mets should go beyond 3 years but unfortunately if they are going to contend they need to upgrade the starting rotation
SP-Ben Sheets-Sheets goes to Texas. The Rangers had the worst staff in baseball. The team president Nolan Ryan is probably the teams best pitcher now. They could afford to take a risk with Sheet's health because they have nothing better. Besides Sheets is from Texas and we've seen this off season how that has affected players decisions.
By the way for any new readers WELCOME!!!!!!!! I hope you enjoy the blog. I can't stress enough how much I love comments from people. So I urge you guys to comment on anything you need.
C-Jason Veritek-This is easy. Veritek belongs on the Red Sox. He is the heart and soul of that team. Even though he only hit 220 last year he is more valuable to them than any other team. I'd be stunned if he ends up anywhere else.
1B-Kevin Millar-Millar belongs with the Angels. With Tex in New York Kendry Morales is the starter. Millar would give the Angels depth if Morales does not produce. Millar is also a great locker room guy.
2B-Orlando Hudson-O-Dog belongs on the Mets. I know the problems about no one wanting to take Castillo's contract but the Mets are in a position where they should not have to worry about a extra couple of million in payroll. Either release Castillo or keep him for pinch running or depth. Hudson saves runs on D and like Millar is a great clubhouse guy. Something the Mets really need.
SS-Orlando Cabrera-Cabrera goes to the Reds. If we learned anything from 2008 if you have very good starting pitching and good defense improvements are possible. The Reds have Volquez, Cueto, Harang, Arroyo and Bailey. Also a young lineup. Cabrera would plug up their biggest hole.
3B-Joe Crede-I'm sending Crede to Minnesota. The Twins have no real 3rd baseman. Last year they got by with a mix and match of Buscher, Lamb and Harris. Crede would add power and if he still is not healthy at least the Twins can go back to the trio I mentioned.
OF-Manny Ramirez-This one is also easy. Manny belongs with the Dodgers. While LA has some excellent young pitching the offense is not very threatening without Manny. With Manny the Dodgers are probably the favorites in the NL West. Besides doesn't Manny belong in LA??
OF-Adam Dunn-Dunn goes to the Nats. Washington only hit 117 HRs last year. And Nats park looks to be a good hitters park. Dunn will hit his usual 40 and probably more.
OF-Bobby Abreu-Abreu goes to the Giants. With the improvements the Giants have made all they need is more offense to compete. Since Manny's staying in LA Abreu is the best plan B. With that rotation and a little more run scoring contention is not that far fetched.
SP-Oliver Perez-The Mets need him. Signing Freddie Garcia and Tim Redding does nothing to solve the Mets need for a front line starter. Perez is Jekyll and Hyde and I don't think the Mets should go beyond 3 years but unfortunately if they are going to contend they need to upgrade the starting rotation
SP-Ben Sheets-Sheets goes to Texas. The Rangers had the worst staff in baseball. The team president Nolan Ryan is probably the teams best pitcher now. They could afford to take a risk with Sheet's health because they have nothing better. Besides Sheets is from Texas and we've seen this off season how that has affected players decisions.
By the way for any new readers WELCOME!!!!!!!! I hope you enjoy the blog. I can't stress enough how much I love comments from people. So I urge you guys to comment on anything you need.
Friday, January 23, 2009
So Long Jeff
With a total lack of interesting things going on on the Hot Stove I figured I spend some time reviewing the career of recently retired 2nd baseman Jeff Kent. Like I said in the past when I grow up I'd love to be a baseball historian. I'm sure every era in baseball history had players like Kent that will be appreciated more throught the prism of history than when they played. Kent was never a favorite with the press because he never said very much. Also playing on the west coast for most of his career probably hurt his national exposure. To me the most striking stat of his was Kent hit 351HRs in his career. Thats a full 74 more than the second place player at his position, Ryne Sandberg. I don't have stats in front of me but I don't know if any other player has hit 20% more dingers than anyone else at his position. Kent drove in over 1500 runs averaging over 100 RBIs over 162 games. He made the All Star team 5 times and captured the 2000 MVP. In addition something to think about is Kent played almost his entire career in very difficult hitting parks, AT&T, Shea and Dodger Stadiums. Baseball Reference lists a players top comp and oddly enough between age 30-33 Kent's top comp every year was Joe Gordan the recently voted in HOF. His detractors will point to his below average defense at 2nd. Thats fair. And all his big years were a direct product of hitting after Barry Bonds. The bottom line is even if he saw alot of pitches to hit he had to hit them. I could honestly say watching him all those years I never thought he was HOF material. But the body of work may say otherwise. Definitely not a first ballot but maybe down the road. So where does he rank with the all time second baseman here is my list of the top 10 second baseman ever
1.Rogers Hornsby-The guy averaged over 400 over 5 years.
2.Joe Morgan-Best 2nd baseman I ever saw. Did it all. Pompous announcer
3.Eddie Collins-Cornerstone of $100,000 infield of A's dynasty of 1911-14 And NOT one of the dirty Black Sox
4.Nap Lajoie-338 career average. At the turn of the century the Indians were called the Naps after him.
5.Jackie Robinson-His career numbers would have been even better if he was given the chance earlier.
6.Rod Carew-A 328 career hitter with 7 career batting titles. Not a great fielder but he sure could hit.
7.Ryne Sandberg-Known for his bat but earned 9 Gold Gloves. He even stole over 50 bases one year
8.Charlie Gehringer-Part of the G-Men with the Tigers in the 30s with Hank Greenberg and Goose Goslin. Think Killer B's with Gehringer being much better than Biggio.
9.Fankie Frisch-Player/Manager of the Gas House Gang Cards of 1934. Played on 8 Pennant Winners
10.Roberto Alomar/Joe Gordan/Bobby Doerr/Jeff Kent-I know its cheating. Take your pick.
I believe Chase Utley has a very good shot at this list if he stays healthy.
As always your thoughts and comments are not only welcomed they are STRONGLY encouraged.
1.Rogers Hornsby-The guy averaged over 400 over 5 years.
2.Joe Morgan-Best 2nd baseman I ever saw. Did it all. Pompous announcer
3.Eddie Collins-Cornerstone of $100,000 infield of A's dynasty of 1911-14 And NOT one of the dirty Black Sox
4.Nap Lajoie-338 career average. At the turn of the century the Indians were called the Naps after him.
5.Jackie Robinson-His career numbers would have been even better if he was given the chance earlier.
6.Rod Carew-A 328 career hitter with 7 career batting titles. Not a great fielder but he sure could hit.
7.Ryne Sandberg-Known for his bat but earned 9 Gold Gloves. He even stole over 50 bases one year
8.Charlie Gehringer-Part of the G-Men with the Tigers in the 30s with Hank Greenberg and Goose Goslin. Think Killer B's with Gehringer being much better than Biggio.
9.Fankie Frisch-Player/Manager of the Gas House Gang Cards of 1934. Played on 8 Pennant Winners
10.Roberto Alomar/Joe Gordan/Bobby Doerr/Jeff Kent-I know its cheating. Take your pick.
I believe Chase Utley has a very good shot at this list if he stays healthy.
As always your thoughts and comments are not only welcomed they are STRONGLY encouraged.
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