Back in the early days of sabermetrics we found out you can very accurately predict a team won-loss record by knowing how many runs a team scores and gives up. This is called the Pythagorean Formula. Over the years this formula has proved to be very accurate. Of the 30 teams last year only 5 teams were more or less than 5 games from their predicted result. It has also been proven that in virtually all cases a team that gets alot more wins than their Pythagoreean formula ultimately regresses. While teams that have less wins end up winning more games the next year. So who are those 5 teams.
Teams that Should Improve
1.Toronto Blue Jays -7
2.Seattle Mariners-6
3,Atlanta Braves -6
Pythagorean does not account for free agent defections and injuries. With that said I don't see Toronto improving. But I see the other two improving by more than six wins each
Teams that Should Take a Step Back
1.Los Angeles Angels+12
2.Houston Astros +9
I think the Angels can drop 10-15 games this season. And I also think the Astros back track.
The reason why I introduced this is I saw a interesting article that used Pythagorean to predict the 2009 season. What they did was estamate playing time for the players that are now on each team and had a computer estamate the amount of runs scored and runs allowed. As the article said signing a Manny, Adam Dunn or Bobby Abreu can significantly alter the results. But here on a chilly Florida night its fun to see what we got.
AL East
1.Tampa Bay Rays 95 67
1.NY Yankees 95 67
3.Boston Red Sox 93 69
4.Toronto Blue Jays 82 80
5.Baltimore Orioles 73 89
AL Central
1.Minnesota Twins 90 72
2.Cleveland Indians 86 76
3.Detroit Tigers 84 78
4.Chicago White Sox 78 84
5.Kansas City Royals 73 89
AL West
1.LA Angels 92 70
2.Oakland As 84 78
3.Texas Rangers 78 84
4.Seattle Mariners 74 88
NL East
1.Philadelphia Phillies 96 66
2.NY Mets 92 70
3.Atlanta Braves 86 76
4.Florida Marlins 83 79
5.Washington Nats 66 96
NL Central
1.Chicago Cubs 95 67
2.Milwaukee Brewers 88 74
3.St. Louis Cards 85 77
4.Houston Astros 83 79
5.Cincinnati Reds 74 88
6.Pittsburg Pirates 70 92
NL West
1.LA Dodgers 88 74
2.Arizona D-Backs 84 78
3.Colorado Rockies 82 80
4.SF Giants 78 84
5.SD Padres 68 94
Just something to think about. As of now its pretty close I think.
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2 comments:
Hmm, the Mets finishing 4 games behind Philly? I hope not. I think they've done enough to close the gap (albeit small) between them and the Phillies.
A lights out closer and a reliable setup man will make the Mets at least 7-10 games better than last season.
How many games did the bullpen blow in 2008?
As all Mets fans know the answer to your question is WAY TOO MANY!!!!!!!!!
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