Sunday, March 1, 2009

Boston Red Sox-Team Preview

2008 Record 95-67

Projected Lineup

C-Jason Veritek 13-43-220

1B-Kevin Youkliss 29-115-312

2B-Dustin Pedroia 17-83-326

SS-Julio Lugo 1-22-268

3B-Mike Lowell 17-73-274

LF-Jason Bay 31-101-286

CF-Jacoby Ellsbury 9-47-280

RF-JD Drew 19-64-280

DH-David Ortiz 23-89-264

Projected Starters

Josh Beckett 12-10-4.03

Jon Lester 16-6-3.21

Daisuke Matsuzaka 18-3-2.90

Tim Wakefield 10-11-4.13

Brad Penney 6-9-6.27

Bullpen

Johnathan Papelbon 5-4-2.31 41

Hidecki Okajima 3-2-2.61 1

Manny Delcarmen 1-2-3.27 2

Justin Masterson 6-5-3.16

Whats to Like
1.Theo Epstein and da Boyz-The Sox have the best organization in all of baseball. From locking up vital members of their team. To trading players at the right time. To doing a great job of scouting and drafting. Yes they are a team with a large payroll but they still are considerably less than the Yankees.
2.The Sox have the deepest pitching staff in all of baseball. Just think if John Smoltz continues to heal he will join this terrific staff. Also I did not even mention Clay Buchholz who was the number 1 rated pitching prospect by Baseball Prosptus in 2008.

Whats Not to Like
1.Its Thin Out There-The Sox look most venerable in the outfield. Its certainly not a stretch to think JD Drew gets hurt at some point. As of now the backup outfielders are a very questionable Rocco Baldelli and Brad Wilkerson. This is the only part of the team that might need upgrading.
2.That Hurts-Many of the Sox players have a history of injury. Drew,Lowell,Ortiz,Baldelli,Beckett all have had spent time on the DL. The problem is the room for error is incredibly small in the AL East. If a few players go down here and there and the replacements while capable are not up to the level of the starters it might cost the Sox a few games over the course of the season. And it might be those few games that drops the Sox to being the third best team both in baseball AND the AL East.

Fantasy Focus

Dice K-So Dice K goes 18-3 with an ERA under 3 and plays on a terrific team so why is he not ranked in the top in fantasy pitchers? His stats speak on an ace, right? Well maybe not. Here is three stats that point to caution 1.His K/BB Ratio is a way below average 1.6. 2. His HR/FB was a very low 6%.3 And finally his BABIP(Batting Average of Balls In Play) was a ridiculously low 262. Sabermetrics has proven that for almost all pitchers BABIP is not a repeatable skill. The league average is right around 300. Regression to the mean is simply the rule. Dice K's BABIP in 2007 was 302. So he was probably quite lucky in 2008. I'm not saying he is not a good pitcher who is not worth owning. All I'm saying is don't expect a repeat of 2008.

Fun Fact

For a long time Red Sox Nation has lived and died with the longball. And if you ask most fans they would probably still say the Sox have one of the most powerful teams in all of baseball. But guess what the facts really don't back that up. They only hit 11 more HRs than the average AL team. Certanly not bad but not the awesome power some think they prowcess.

Outlook

As I write this I'd say the Red Sox have the best team in baseball from top to bottom. If Penney is healthy. and Smoltz is anywhere close to where he was before the injury when he returns(no rush) the Sox will have two MORE terrific pitchers at a bargain price. They also have money to spend at the trading deadline to trade for a player to make them better. About the only problems I see on the horizon are a rash of injury to their injury prone players and the teams that play in Tampa and the Bronx. I'd be VERY surprised if Red Sox Nation are not watching meaningful baseball in October for their beloved Sox.

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