Cleveland Indians-Team Preview

2008 Team Record 81-81

Projected Lineup

C-Victor Martinez 2-35-278

1B-Ryan Garko 14-90-273

2B-Asdubal Cabrera 6-47-259

SS-Jhonny Peralta 23-89-276

3B-Mark DeRosa 21-87-285

LF-Ben Francisco 15-54-266

CF-Grady Sizemore 33-90-268

RF-Shin Soo Choo 14-66-309

DH-Travis Hafner 5-24-197

Projected Rotation

Cliff Lee 22-3-2.54

Fausto Carmona 8-7-5.44

Carl Pavano 4-2-5.77

Anthony Reyes 4-2-2.76

Aaron Laffey 4-7-4.23

Bullpen

Kerry Wood 5-4-3.26 34

Jensen Lewis 0-4-3.82 13

Rafael Perez 4-4-3.54 2

Whats To Like
1.Wheres the Fire?-Mark Shapiro, one of the sharp young GMs in the game did a excellent job rebuilding the horror show the was the Tribes bullpen. Not only did they sign a real closer in Kerry Wood. They filled the pen with very good arms just in case Wood goes down(not an impossible thing). Not only do they have Jensen Lewis who did a very good job closing at the end of last year. They also have Rafael Perez, Joe Smith, Rafael Betancourt and Masahide Kobayashi. This crew should be an asset and not a weakness.
2.And Down the Stretch-With the Tribe pretty much out of the race they put together their best two months of the season at the end. Remember this was after the trade of CC Sabathia. As an outsider its hard to know exactly who should get the credit for this but I'm sure Eric Wedge deserves alot. If you can have a team play hard when they are out of it. Think what they can do if they contend. FYI the Tribe was 34-21 in Aug. and Sept.

Whats Not to Like
1.And the starter will be who?-This starting staff is full of question marks. Last year Cliff Lee had a dream season. He will be very hard pressed to win 20 again will this group. More about Fausto Carmona later. If Carl Pavano is penciled in for your third starter you know your in trouble. And the rest of the staff will be filled out by once and future prospects like Anthony Reyes, Aaron Laffey, Jeremy Sowers and Scott Lewis. Best case scenario they are league average. More likely they cause the Tribe to fall behind on most nights.
2.Slow, Slower and Slowest-This is a team outside of Grady Sizemore with NO speed. They stole 77 bases last year with Sizemore swiping 38. And as I've said in the past on this blog. Speed is not only important stealing bases. Its critical in the field. The lack of speed will cost the Indians in alot of ways that might not be readily seen.

Fantasy Focus
Fausto Carmona-As a rule batters are more consistent and stable than pitchers. Pitchers are dependant on factors outside of their own control to be successful. The most obvious two are run support for wins and a good defense to make good plays to keep their ERA down. Errors happen to all teams. But the good defensive teams turn hits into outs. I bring this up because if you knew nothing about baseball and looked at Carmona's stats over the past three years you'd be really confused. In 2006 1-10-5.26 In 2007 19-8 3.06 and in 2008 8-7-5.44. How is this possible? Well last years difficulties can be traced to a few placed but maybe the most damning stat he walked more hitters than he struck out. Last season he had 58 Ks and 70 BBs. In 2007 his good year his numbers were 137Ks/61BBs. So what about 2009? I think the real Carmona is somewhere between 2007 and 2008. He is a guy that you can probably get in the later rounds. If his control is good he can be a steal. If he is not drafted watch that K/BB ratio early if its good someone should grab him off the waiver wire pretty quickly.

Fun Fact
Cliff Lee was simply amazing last season. One of the numbers that you won't find on the back of a baseball card that is really important when explaining his success is Lee only had 3 stolen base attempts against him all year!!!!!

Outlook
For a team that was so close just two years ago it now faces a real uphill battle. The team has holes all over. IF!!! Martinez and Hafner both return to pre-injury levels and the young pitchers work out it will be a smoothie transition season. But everything has to go right for this team to contend. The AL Central is totally up in the air. But for now I'll say the Tribe finish 4th.