Wednesday, March 4, 2009

Chicago Cubs Team Preview

2008 Team Record 97-64

Projected Lineup

C-Geo Soto 23-86-285

1B-Derek Lee 20-90-291

2B-Mike Fontenot 9-40-305

SS-Ryan Theriot 1-38-307

3B-Aramis Ramirez 27-111-289

LF-Alfonso Soriano 29-75-280

CF-Kosuke Fukudome 10-58-257

RF-Milton Bradley 22-77-321

Projected Rotation

Carlos Zambrano 14-6-3.91

Ryan Dempster 17-6-2.91

Rich Harden 10-2-2.07

Ted Lilly 17-9-4.29

Sean Marshall 3-5-3.86

Bullpen

Carlos Marmol 2-4-2.68 7

Kevin Gregg 7-8-3.41 29

Aaron Heilman 3-8-5.21 3

Whats To Like
1.Balance-The Cubbies have the best balence of any team in the NL. If you look at the combination of offense, starting pitching and bullpen they have no weak area of the club.
2.Lets get this started-The Cubs have a very solid group of 5 starters I listed above. But if the unthinkable happens like an injury to Rich Harden they have Aaron Heilman and Jeff Samardzija just waiting for an opportunity. Not many teams have the luxury of having so many options.

Whats Not to Like
1.Not so Fast-Speed is one of the most under evaluated aspects in all of baseball. Just think its not just Stolen Bases, but its also getting to balls in the field and grounding into inning killing DPs. By all accounts Chicago's lack of seed is the team Achilles heal. And with Fukudome who has fantastic in right moving to center the Cubs defense becomes below average.
2.This team seems built for the 162 game marathon but not for the playoffs where dominant pitching and defense are key. While I love the deep rotation the only pitcher I'd be truly afraid to face in a short series is Rich Harden(if healthy). If they can get Jake Peavy it would address that in a hurry.

Fantasy Focus
Carlos Marmol-Marmol will get the opportunity to close for the Cubbies this year, a job he has never done for any amount of time before. So how should we evaluate him? Would I want to do is take Marmol and use him in a bigger discussion on how to spot guys who will make successful closers. Alot of people firstly mention the closer mentality. Some guys have it some don't. My feeling is this is something thats a bit overrated. If this "skill" was constant guys would not win jobs and lose them from year to year. Whats more important to me is what kind of stuff does. For me I look at two stats. 1.K/innings 2.K/BB. When you think of almost all the dominant closers they are almost all strikeout pitchers. The contact pitchers rarely succeed in the role. There has been exceptions like Dan Quizenberry but in general its the guys that strikeout hitters are the guys you want. Also walks are deadly both in real baseball and for your teams WHIP. Also two more factors contribute to a guy being successful as a closer that he has no control over. 1.opportunity-it makes sense that closers on better teams will have more chances for saves than closers on bad teams 2.competition-is there another guy in the pen thats ready to take his place if he struggles. For example for the Angels if Brian Fuentes blows a few like he did in Colorado two years ago they have Jose Arredondo ready and waiting. Conversely if Trevor Hoffman struggles in Milwaukee they have no one to take his place. So by all those factors lets look at Marmol. Firstly Marmol averaged 11.8 Ks per 9 innings last season. Thats a definite plus. His K/BB ratio last season was 2.8/1. Not bad but with his K rate it shows he walks to many hitters. Lets calls that neither a plus nor a minus. Opportunity-The Cubs are probably the best team in the NL major plus. Competition-Kevin Gregg who saved 27 games for Florida last year is ready and waiting so thats a minus. The final verdict is I like Marmol but he is not an absolute slam dunk.

Fun Fact
Maybe it was not such a good idea to let Jason Marquis go to Colorado. You see every year Marquis has been in the Majors his team won their division.

Outlook
This is a terrific team. They should be a heavy favorite to win the NL Central. If I was a betting man I'd say they will have the best record in the NL again. A fun thing to watch this summer is to see how longs it takes Lou Pinella to blow up at Milton Bradley. And then see who Milton Bradley blames it on. Seeing how the Cubs have not won the Series since 1908 the law of averages is bound to catch up to them soon. Its not to far fetched to think this is the year.

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