2008 Team Record 81-81
Projected Lineup
C-Victor Martinez 2-35-278
1B-Ryan Garko 14-90-273
2B-Asdubal Cabrera 6-47-259
SS-Jhonny Peralta 23-89-276
3B-Mark DeRosa 21-87-285
LF-Ben Francisco 15-54-266
CF-Grady Sizemore 33-90-268
RF-Shin Soo Choo 14-66-309
DH-Travis Hafner 5-24-197
Projected Rotation
Cliff Lee 22-3-2.54
Fausto Carmona 8-7-5.44
Carl Pavano 4-2-5.77
Anthony Reyes 4-2-2.76
Aaron Laffey 4-7-4.23
Bullpen
Kerry Wood 5-4-3.26 34
Jensen Lewis 0-4-3.82 13
Rafael Perez 4-4-3.54 2
Whats To Like
1.Wheres the Fire?-Mark Shapiro, one of the sharp young GMs in the game did a excellent job rebuilding the horror show the was the Tribes bullpen. Not only did they sign a real closer in Kerry Wood. They filled the pen with very good arms just in case Wood goes down(not an impossible thing). Not only do they have Jensen Lewis who did a very good job closing at the end of last year. They also have Rafael Perez, Joe Smith, Rafael Betancourt and Masahide Kobayashi. This crew should be an asset and not a weakness.
2.And Down the Stretch-With the Tribe pretty much out of the race they put together their best two months of the season at the end. Remember this was after the trade of CC Sabathia. As an outsider its hard to know exactly who should get the credit for this but I'm sure Eric Wedge deserves alot. If you can have a team play hard when they are out of it. Think what they can do if they contend. FYI the Tribe was 34-21 in Aug. and Sept.
Whats Not to Like
1.And the starter will be who?-This starting staff is full of question marks. Last year Cliff Lee had a dream season. He will be very hard pressed to win 20 again will this group. More about Fausto Carmona later. If Carl Pavano is penciled in for your third starter you know your in trouble. And the rest of the staff will be filled out by once and future prospects like Anthony Reyes, Aaron Laffey, Jeremy Sowers and Scott Lewis. Best case scenario they are league average. More likely they cause the Tribe to fall behind on most nights.
2.Slow, Slower and Slowest-This is a team outside of Grady Sizemore with NO speed. They stole 77 bases last year with Sizemore swiping 38. And as I've said in the past on this blog. Speed is not only important stealing bases. Its critical in the field. The lack of speed will cost the Indians in alot of ways that might not be readily seen.
Fantasy Focus
Fausto Carmona-As a rule batters are more consistent and stable than pitchers. Pitchers are dependant on factors outside of their own control to be successful. The most obvious two are run support for wins and a good defense to make good plays to keep their ERA down. Errors happen to all teams. But the good defensive teams turn hits into outs. I bring this up because if you knew nothing about baseball and looked at Carmona's stats over the past three years you'd be really confused. In 2006 1-10-5.26 In 2007 19-8 3.06 and in 2008 8-7-5.44. How is this possible? Well last years difficulties can be traced to a few placed but maybe the most damning stat he walked more hitters than he struck out. Last season he had 58 Ks and 70 BBs. In 2007 his good year his numbers were 137Ks/61BBs. So what about 2009? I think the real Carmona is somewhere between 2007 and 2008. He is a guy that you can probably get in the later rounds. If his control is good he can be a steal. If he is not drafted watch that K/BB ratio early if its good someone should grab him off the waiver wire pretty quickly.
Fun Fact
Cliff Lee was simply amazing last season. One of the numbers that you won't find on the back of a baseball card that is really important when explaining his success is Lee only had 3 stolen base attempts against him all year!!!!!
Outlook
For a team that was so close just two years ago it now faces a real uphill battle. The team has holes all over. IF!!! Martinez and Hafner both return to pre-injury levels and the young pitchers work out it will be a smoothie transition season. But everything has to go right for this team to contend. The AL Central is totally up in the air. But for now I'll say the Tribe finish 4th.
Wednesday, March 11, 2009
Monday, March 9, 2009
Cincinnati Reds-Team Preview
2008 Team Record 74-88
Projected Lineup
C-Ramon Hernandez 15-65-257
1B-Joey Votto 24-84-297
2B-Brandon Phillips 21-78-261
SS-Alex Gonzalez Out for 2008
3B-Edwin Encarnacion 26-68-251
LF-Chris Dickerson 6-15-304
CF-Willy Taveras 1-26-251
RF-Jay Bruce 21-52-254
Projected Rotation
Aaron Harang 6-17-4.38
Bronson Arroyo 15-11-4.77
Edinson Volquez 17-6-3.21
Johnny Cueto 9-14-4.81
Micah Owings 6-9-5.93
Bullpen
Francisco Cordero 5-4-3.33 34
David Weathers 4-6-3.25
Jared Burton 5-1-3.22
Whats To Like
1.And the Youth Shall Lead-Any team that has a quartet of 25 and under players such as Edinson Volquez, Johnny Cueto, Joey Votto and Jay Bruce has the nucleus to compete for years to come. I would think the Reds should definitely try to lock Votto and Bruce up long term. As I talked about in an earlier piece signing pitchers to long term deals is very risky. The Reds have the Dominican duo for at least two more years before they really have to think about long term deals for them.
2.The New Boss, Different from the Old Boss-For years the Reds were one of the worst run teams in baseball. Starting with Marge Schott to the parade of incompetent GMs. But now Walt Jockerty who was the architect of the Cardinal teams from the last few years is in on board to runs the Reds. Jockerty always has a knack for finding veterans and overlooked players with small salaries. The days of horrible trades should be over in Cincy.
Whats Not to Like
1.Wheres First????-The Reds had the 3rd worst OBA in the NL last season last season. And adding Willy Taveras a career 331 to hit lead off will not help out much. The offense needs to walk more and strikeout less.
2.Keep It in the Park-Cincy allowed the most homers of any team in the NL. While this can be partly explained by playing in Great American Ballpark. The real problem lies in that this staff is made up of predominately fly ball pitchers. Aaron Harrang and Johnny Cueto are definite fly ball pitchers. Owings, Arroyo and Volquez are more neutral. Last year the combination of fly balls yielded and the worst HR/FB ratio in the NL .13 spelled doom.
Fantasy Focus
Edwin Encarnacion-There are a few players that you always think great things are on the way. But for one reason or another it never seems to happen. Encarncion seems to be one of those guys. While he increased to 26 HRs last year just about all other numbers seem stagnant or going in the wrong direction. His BA dropped 36 points. Even with those extra 11HRs he has 8 less RBIs. And only 1 SB after averaging close to 10. Someone will probably draft him and he might explode but the numbers don't forsee a sustained breakout from him
Fun Fact
Micah Owings is a career 319 hitter. And his career SLG is 552. Which places him second on the team only behind Joey Votto.
Outlook
For the first time in decades Red fans have real reason for optimism. The young players are there. A very deep rotation with Homer Bailey waiting in the wings. The Reds will not win the Central this year but they are closer than any time in awhile. I'll say they improve by 7 games and end by around 81-81.
Projected Lineup
C-Ramon Hernandez 15-65-257
1B-Joey Votto 24-84-297
2B-Brandon Phillips 21-78-261
SS-Alex Gonzalez Out for 2008
3B-Edwin Encarnacion 26-68-251
LF-Chris Dickerson 6-15-304
CF-Willy Taveras 1-26-251
RF-Jay Bruce 21-52-254
Projected Rotation
Aaron Harang 6-17-4.38
Bronson Arroyo 15-11-4.77
Edinson Volquez 17-6-3.21
Johnny Cueto 9-14-4.81
Micah Owings 6-9-5.93
Bullpen
Francisco Cordero 5-4-3.33 34
David Weathers 4-6-3.25
Jared Burton 5-1-3.22
Whats To Like
1.And the Youth Shall Lead-Any team that has a quartet of 25 and under players such as Edinson Volquez, Johnny Cueto, Joey Votto and Jay Bruce has the nucleus to compete for years to come. I would think the Reds should definitely try to lock Votto and Bruce up long term. As I talked about in an earlier piece signing pitchers to long term deals is very risky. The Reds have the Dominican duo for at least two more years before they really have to think about long term deals for them.
2.The New Boss, Different from the Old Boss-For years the Reds were one of the worst run teams in baseball. Starting with Marge Schott to the parade of incompetent GMs. But now Walt Jockerty who was the architect of the Cardinal teams from the last few years is in on board to runs the Reds. Jockerty always has a knack for finding veterans and overlooked players with small salaries. The days of horrible trades should be over in Cincy.
Whats Not to Like
1.Wheres First????-The Reds had the 3rd worst OBA in the NL last season last season. And adding Willy Taveras a career 331 to hit lead off will not help out much. The offense needs to walk more and strikeout less.
2.Keep It in the Park-Cincy allowed the most homers of any team in the NL. While this can be partly explained by playing in Great American Ballpark. The real problem lies in that this staff is made up of predominately fly ball pitchers. Aaron Harrang and Johnny Cueto are definite fly ball pitchers. Owings, Arroyo and Volquez are more neutral. Last year the combination of fly balls yielded and the worst HR/FB ratio in the NL .13 spelled doom.
Fantasy Focus
Edwin Encarnacion-There are a few players that you always think great things are on the way. But for one reason or another it never seems to happen. Encarncion seems to be one of those guys. While he increased to 26 HRs last year just about all other numbers seem stagnant or going in the wrong direction. His BA dropped 36 points. Even with those extra 11HRs he has 8 less RBIs. And only 1 SB after averaging close to 10. Someone will probably draft him and he might explode but the numbers don't forsee a sustained breakout from him
Fun Fact
Micah Owings is a career 319 hitter. And his career SLG is 552. Which places him second on the team only behind Joey Votto.
Outlook
For the first time in decades Red fans have real reason for optimism. The young players are there. A very deep rotation with Homer Bailey waiting in the wings. The Reds will not win the Central this year but they are closer than any time in awhile. I'll say they improve by 7 games and end by around 81-81.
Thursday, March 5, 2009
Chicago White Sox-Team Preview
2008 Team Record 89-79
Projected Lineup
C-AJ Pierzynski 13-60-281
1B-Paul Konerko 22-62-240
2B-Chris Getz 0-1-286
SS-Alexei Ramirez 21-77-290
3B-Josh Fields 0-2-156
LF-Carlos Quentin 36-100-288
CF-Brian Anderson 8-26-232
RF-Jermaine Dye 34-96-292
DH-Jim Thome 34-90-245
Projected Rotation
Mark Buerhle 15-12-3.79
John Danks 12-9-3.32
Gavin Floyd 17-8-3.84
Bartolo Colon 4-2-3.92
Clayton Richard 2-5-6.04
Bullpen
Bobby Jenks 3-1-2.63 30
Scott Linebrink 2-2-3.69 1
Matt Thornton 5-3-2.67 1
Whats To Like
1.How do you spell Relief-The bullpen is by far the best part of this team. Along with the three I mentioned above they also have Octavio Dotel. The Sox should be able to shorten games for a very questionable starting staff.
2.Carlos Quentin-Sure the 36 dingers and 100 RBIs are nice but any player who breaks a bone in anger is my kind of guy.
Whats Not To Like
1.No Direction Home-Since the White Sox were eliminated by the Rays in the playoffs almost everything they have done this off season is questionable at best. I understand about not wanted to get old but Kenny Williams took a playoff team and turned them into a team that will be very lucky to win 75 games.
2.Lets get THIS started-If Bartolo Colon is penciled in for my 4th starter I know my rotation has issues. The Sox are hoping Jose Contreras can help. If the White Sox are rebuilding having Contreras and Colon is not the way to go.
Fantasy Focus
Gavin Floyd-Fact or Fiction???? If you look very closely at Floyd's numbers he gives indications he is either ready to take the next step to be a big winner or he is about to prove 2008 was a mirage. Very few players have numbers going in both directions like Floyd. For example Floyd averaged only 6.3 Ks per 9 innings past season. While walking over 3 per 9. That a very questionable K/BB ratio of just 2/1. Floyd was lucky in the respect he had fantastic run support. On the positive side he is still only 26 and has shown growth throughtout his brief MLB career. If he can just cut down on the HRs yielded which for the past years was either 12-13% of fly balls he should be able to sustain success. As of now I'm a bit on the skeptical side. The White Sox are not going to be a good team so I don't believe he is worth drafting but he is worth keeping an eye on.
Fun Fact
Anyone who has read this blog since I've started doing this should know by now I'm very partial to strikeout pitchers versus contact pitchers. Mark Buerhle is amazing every day he gives up tons of base runners but always has a good record and a much better ERA than you'd expect. So how does he do it? He is three stats. 1.Buerhle gave up the most hits of any MLB pitcher 240. 2.He induced the most DPs of any pitcher in MLB with 39 3.He only gave up 5 Stolen Bases all year old in 12 attempts while picking off 6 runners. By the way Gavin Floyd gave up 37 Stolen Bases by far the most in MLB.
Outlook
Its not easy to go from first to worst but thats what I'm predicting for the White Sox. This was the division champs last year. I don't believe Kenny Williams had a tear apart this team. Especially in this year of free agent bargains. If the Sox just resigned their players and added a piece to the rotation they would have an excellent chance to repeat. Also whats puzzleling to me is if the White Sox had a prospects in the minors ready to take over I'd be able to understand their moves but its not the case. The only highly thought of prospects in the minors are SS Gordan Beckham and C Tyler Flowers and neither should contribute this season. 2 other predictions for this team are 1.They will be out of it by the trading deadline and will try to move Jermaine Dye 2.Ozzie Guillen will be fired by the All Star break.
Projected Lineup
C-AJ Pierzynski 13-60-281
1B-Paul Konerko 22-62-240
2B-Chris Getz 0-1-286
SS-Alexei Ramirez 21-77-290
3B-Josh Fields 0-2-156
LF-Carlos Quentin 36-100-288
CF-Brian Anderson 8-26-232
RF-Jermaine Dye 34-96-292
DH-Jim Thome 34-90-245
Projected Rotation
Mark Buerhle 15-12-3.79
John Danks 12-9-3.32
Gavin Floyd 17-8-3.84
Bartolo Colon 4-2-3.92
Clayton Richard 2-5-6.04
Bullpen
Bobby Jenks 3-1-2.63 30
Scott Linebrink 2-2-3.69 1
Matt Thornton 5-3-2.67 1
Whats To Like
1.How do you spell Relief-The bullpen is by far the best part of this team. Along with the three I mentioned above they also have Octavio Dotel. The Sox should be able to shorten games for a very questionable starting staff.
2.Carlos Quentin-Sure the 36 dingers and 100 RBIs are nice but any player who breaks a bone in anger is my kind of guy.
Whats Not To Like
1.No Direction Home-Since the White Sox were eliminated by the Rays in the playoffs almost everything they have done this off season is questionable at best. I understand about not wanted to get old but Kenny Williams took a playoff team and turned them into a team that will be very lucky to win 75 games.
2.Lets get THIS started-If Bartolo Colon is penciled in for my 4th starter I know my rotation has issues. The Sox are hoping Jose Contreras can help. If the White Sox are rebuilding having Contreras and Colon is not the way to go.
Fantasy Focus
Gavin Floyd-Fact or Fiction???? If you look very closely at Floyd's numbers he gives indications he is either ready to take the next step to be a big winner or he is about to prove 2008 was a mirage. Very few players have numbers going in both directions like Floyd. For example Floyd averaged only 6.3 Ks per 9 innings past season. While walking over 3 per 9. That a very questionable K/BB ratio of just 2/1. Floyd was lucky in the respect he had fantastic run support. On the positive side he is still only 26 and has shown growth throughtout his brief MLB career. If he can just cut down on the HRs yielded which for the past years was either 12-13% of fly balls he should be able to sustain success. As of now I'm a bit on the skeptical side. The White Sox are not going to be a good team so I don't believe he is worth drafting but he is worth keeping an eye on.
Fun Fact
Anyone who has read this blog since I've started doing this should know by now I'm very partial to strikeout pitchers versus contact pitchers. Mark Buerhle is amazing every day he gives up tons of base runners but always has a good record and a much better ERA than you'd expect. So how does he do it? He is three stats. 1.Buerhle gave up the most hits of any MLB pitcher 240. 2.He induced the most DPs of any pitcher in MLB with 39 3.He only gave up 5 Stolen Bases all year old in 12 attempts while picking off 6 runners. By the way Gavin Floyd gave up 37 Stolen Bases by far the most in MLB.
Outlook
Its not easy to go from first to worst but thats what I'm predicting for the White Sox. This was the division champs last year. I don't believe Kenny Williams had a tear apart this team. Especially in this year of free agent bargains. If the Sox just resigned their players and added a piece to the rotation they would have an excellent chance to repeat. Also whats puzzleling to me is if the White Sox had a prospects in the minors ready to take over I'd be able to understand their moves but its not the case. The only highly thought of prospects in the minors are SS Gordan Beckham and C Tyler Flowers and neither should contribute this season. 2 other predictions for this team are 1.They will be out of it by the trading deadline and will try to move Jermaine Dye 2.Ozzie Guillen will be fired by the All Star break.
Wednesday, March 4, 2009
Chicago Cubs Team Preview
2008 Team Record 97-64
Projected Lineup
C-Geo Soto 23-86-285
1B-Derek Lee 20-90-291
2B-Mike Fontenot 9-40-305
SS-Ryan Theriot 1-38-307
3B-Aramis Ramirez 27-111-289
LF-Alfonso Soriano 29-75-280
CF-Kosuke Fukudome 10-58-257
RF-Milton Bradley 22-77-321
Projected Rotation
Carlos Zambrano 14-6-3.91
Ryan Dempster 17-6-2.91
Rich Harden 10-2-2.07
Ted Lilly 17-9-4.29
Sean Marshall 3-5-3.86
Bullpen
Carlos Marmol 2-4-2.68 7
Kevin Gregg 7-8-3.41 29
Aaron Heilman 3-8-5.21 3
Whats To Like
1.Balance-The Cubbies have the best balence of any team in the NL. If you look at the combination of offense, starting pitching and bullpen they have no weak area of the club.
2.Lets get this started-The Cubs have a very solid group of 5 starters I listed above. But if the unthinkable happens like an injury to Rich Harden they have Aaron Heilman and Jeff Samardzija just waiting for an opportunity. Not many teams have the luxury of having so many options.
Whats Not to Like
1.Not so Fast-Speed is one of the most under evaluated aspects in all of baseball. Just think its not just Stolen Bases, but its also getting to balls in the field and grounding into inning killing DPs. By all accounts Chicago's lack of seed is the team Achilles heal. And with Fukudome who has fantastic in right moving to center the Cubs defense becomes below average.
2.This team seems built for the 162 game marathon but not for the playoffs where dominant pitching and defense are key. While I love the deep rotation the only pitcher I'd be truly afraid to face in a short series is Rich Harden(if healthy). If they can get Jake Peavy it would address that in a hurry.
Fantasy Focus
Carlos Marmol-Marmol will get the opportunity to close for the Cubbies this year, a job he has never done for any amount of time before. So how should we evaluate him? Would I want to do is take Marmol and use him in a bigger discussion on how to spot guys who will make successful closers. Alot of people firstly mention the closer mentality. Some guys have it some don't. My feeling is this is something thats a bit overrated. If this "skill" was constant guys would not win jobs and lose them from year to year. Whats more important to me is what kind of stuff does. For me I look at two stats. 1.K/innings 2.K/BB. When you think of almost all the dominant closers they are almost all strikeout pitchers. The contact pitchers rarely succeed in the role. There has been exceptions like Dan Quizenberry but in general its the guys that strikeout hitters are the guys you want. Also walks are deadly both in real baseball and for your teams WHIP. Also two more factors contribute to a guy being successful as a closer that he has no control over. 1.opportunity-it makes sense that closers on better teams will have more chances for saves than closers on bad teams 2.competition-is there another guy in the pen thats ready to take his place if he struggles. For example for the Angels if Brian Fuentes blows a few like he did in Colorado two years ago they have Jose Arredondo ready and waiting. Conversely if Trevor Hoffman struggles in Milwaukee they have no one to take his place. So by all those factors lets look at Marmol. Firstly Marmol averaged 11.8 Ks per 9 innings last season. Thats a definite plus. His K/BB ratio last season was 2.8/1. Not bad but with his K rate it shows he walks to many hitters. Lets calls that neither a plus nor a minus. Opportunity-The Cubs are probably the best team in the NL major plus. Competition-Kevin Gregg who saved 27 games for Florida last year is ready and waiting so thats a minus. The final verdict is I like Marmol but he is not an absolute slam dunk.
Fun Fact
Maybe it was not such a good idea to let Jason Marquis go to Colorado. You see every year Marquis has been in the Majors his team won their division.
Outlook
This is a terrific team. They should be a heavy favorite to win the NL Central. If I was a betting man I'd say they will have the best record in the NL again. A fun thing to watch this summer is to see how longs it takes Lou Pinella to blow up at Milton Bradley. And then see who Milton Bradley blames it on. Seeing how the Cubs have not won the Series since 1908 the law of averages is bound to catch up to them soon. Its not to far fetched to think this is the year.
Projected Lineup
C-Geo Soto 23-86-285
1B-Derek Lee 20-90-291
2B-Mike Fontenot 9-40-305
SS-Ryan Theriot 1-38-307
3B-Aramis Ramirez 27-111-289
LF-Alfonso Soriano 29-75-280
CF-Kosuke Fukudome 10-58-257
RF-Milton Bradley 22-77-321
Projected Rotation
Carlos Zambrano 14-6-3.91
Ryan Dempster 17-6-2.91
Rich Harden 10-2-2.07
Ted Lilly 17-9-4.29
Sean Marshall 3-5-3.86
Bullpen
Carlos Marmol 2-4-2.68 7
Kevin Gregg 7-8-3.41 29
Aaron Heilman 3-8-5.21 3
Whats To Like
1.Balance-The Cubbies have the best balence of any team in the NL. If you look at the combination of offense, starting pitching and bullpen they have no weak area of the club.
2.Lets get this started-The Cubs have a very solid group of 5 starters I listed above. But if the unthinkable happens like an injury to Rich Harden they have Aaron Heilman and Jeff Samardzija just waiting for an opportunity. Not many teams have the luxury of having so many options.
Whats Not to Like
1.Not so Fast-Speed is one of the most under evaluated aspects in all of baseball. Just think its not just Stolen Bases, but its also getting to balls in the field and grounding into inning killing DPs. By all accounts Chicago's lack of seed is the team Achilles heal. And with Fukudome who has fantastic in right moving to center the Cubs defense becomes below average.
2.This team seems built for the 162 game marathon but not for the playoffs where dominant pitching and defense are key. While I love the deep rotation the only pitcher I'd be truly afraid to face in a short series is Rich Harden(if healthy). If they can get Jake Peavy it would address that in a hurry.
Fantasy Focus
Carlos Marmol-Marmol will get the opportunity to close for the Cubbies this year, a job he has never done for any amount of time before. So how should we evaluate him? Would I want to do is take Marmol and use him in a bigger discussion on how to spot guys who will make successful closers. Alot of people firstly mention the closer mentality. Some guys have it some don't. My feeling is this is something thats a bit overrated. If this "skill" was constant guys would not win jobs and lose them from year to year. Whats more important to me is what kind of stuff does. For me I look at two stats. 1.K/innings 2.K/BB. When you think of almost all the dominant closers they are almost all strikeout pitchers. The contact pitchers rarely succeed in the role. There has been exceptions like Dan Quizenberry but in general its the guys that strikeout hitters are the guys you want. Also walks are deadly both in real baseball and for your teams WHIP. Also two more factors contribute to a guy being successful as a closer that he has no control over. 1.opportunity-it makes sense that closers on better teams will have more chances for saves than closers on bad teams 2.competition-is there another guy in the pen thats ready to take his place if he struggles. For example for the Angels if Brian Fuentes blows a few like he did in Colorado two years ago they have Jose Arredondo ready and waiting. Conversely if Trevor Hoffman struggles in Milwaukee they have no one to take his place. So by all those factors lets look at Marmol. Firstly Marmol averaged 11.8 Ks per 9 innings last season. Thats a definite plus. His K/BB ratio last season was 2.8/1. Not bad but with his K rate it shows he walks to many hitters. Lets calls that neither a plus nor a minus. Opportunity-The Cubs are probably the best team in the NL major plus. Competition-Kevin Gregg who saved 27 games for Florida last year is ready and waiting so thats a minus. The final verdict is I like Marmol but he is not an absolute slam dunk.
Fun Fact
Maybe it was not such a good idea to let Jason Marquis go to Colorado. You see every year Marquis has been in the Majors his team won their division.
Outlook
This is a terrific team. They should be a heavy favorite to win the NL Central. If I was a betting man I'd say they will have the best record in the NL again. A fun thing to watch this summer is to see how longs it takes Lou Pinella to blow up at Milton Bradley. And then see who Milton Bradley blames it on. Seeing how the Cubs have not won the Series since 1908 the law of averages is bound to catch up to them soon. Its not to far fetched to think this is the year.
Sunday, March 1, 2009
Boston Red Sox-Team Preview
2008 Record 95-67
Projected Lineup
C-Jason Veritek 13-43-220
1B-Kevin Youkliss 29-115-312
2B-Dustin Pedroia 17-83-326
SS-Julio Lugo 1-22-268
3B-Mike Lowell 17-73-274
LF-Jason Bay 31-101-286
CF-Jacoby Ellsbury 9-47-280
RF-JD Drew 19-64-280
DH-David Ortiz 23-89-264
Projected Starters
Josh Beckett 12-10-4.03
Jon Lester 16-6-3.21
Daisuke Matsuzaka 18-3-2.90
Tim Wakefield 10-11-4.13
Brad Penney 6-9-6.27
Bullpen
Johnathan Papelbon 5-4-2.31 41
Hidecki Okajima 3-2-2.61 1
Manny Delcarmen 1-2-3.27 2
Justin Masterson 6-5-3.16
Whats to Like
1.Theo Epstein and da Boyz-The Sox have the best organization in all of baseball. From locking up vital members of their team. To trading players at the right time. To doing a great job of scouting and drafting. Yes they are a team with a large payroll but they still are considerably less than the Yankees.
2.The Sox have the deepest pitching staff in all of baseball. Just think if John Smoltz continues to heal he will join this terrific staff. Also I did not even mention Clay Buchholz who was the number 1 rated pitching prospect by Baseball Prosptus in 2008.
Whats Not to Like
1.Its Thin Out There-The Sox look most venerable in the outfield. Its certainly not a stretch to think JD Drew gets hurt at some point. As of now the backup outfielders are a very questionable Rocco Baldelli and Brad Wilkerson. This is the only part of the team that might need upgrading.
2.That Hurts-Many of the Sox players have a history of injury. Drew,Lowell,Ortiz,Baldelli,Beckett all have had spent time on the DL. The problem is the room for error is incredibly small in the AL East. If a few players go down here and there and the replacements while capable are not up to the level of the starters it might cost the Sox a few games over the course of the season. And it might be those few games that drops the Sox to being the third best team both in baseball AND the AL East.
Fantasy Focus
Dice K-So Dice K goes 18-3 with an ERA under 3 and plays on a terrific team so why is he not ranked in the top in fantasy pitchers? His stats speak on an ace, right? Well maybe not. Here is three stats that point to caution 1.His K/BB Ratio is a way below average 1.6. 2. His HR/FB was a very low 6%.3 And finally his BABIP(Batting Average of Balls In Play) was a ridiculously low 262. Sabermetrics has proven that for almost all pitchers BABIP is not a repeatable skill. The league average is right around 300. Regression to the mean is simply the rule. Dice K's BABIP in 2007 was 302. So he was probably quite lucky in 2008. I'm not saying he is not a good pitcher who is not worth owning. All I'm saying is don't expect a repeat of 2008.
Fun Fact
For a long time Red Sox Nation has lived and died with the longball. And if you ask most fans they would probably still say the Sox have one of the most powerful teams in all of baseball. But guess what the facts really don't back that up. They only hit 11 more HRs than the average AL team. Certanly not bad but not the awesome power some think they prowcess.
Outlook
As I write this I'd say the Red Sox have the best team in baseball from top to bottom. If Penney is healthy. and Smoltz is anywhere close to where he was before the injury when he returns(no rush) the Sox will have two MORE terrific pitchers at a bargain price. They also have money to spend at the trading deadline to trade for a player to make them better. About the only problems I see on the horizon are a rash of injury to their injury prone players and the teams that play in Tampa and the Bronx. I'd be VERY surprised if Red Sox Nation are not watching meaningful baseball in October for their beloved Sox.
Projected Lineup
C-Jason Veritek 13-43-220
1B-Kevin Youkliss 29-115-312
2B-Dustin Pedroia 17-83-326
SS-Julio Lugo 1-22-268
3B-Mike Lowell 17-73-274
LF-Jason Bay 31-101-286
CF-Jacoby Ellsbury 9-47-280
RF-JD Drew 19-64-280
DH-David Ortiz 23-89-264
Projected Starters
Josh Beckett 12-10-4.03
Jon Lester 16-6-3.21
Daisuke Matsuzaka 18-3-2.90
Tim Wakefield 10-11-4.13
Brad Penney 6-9-6.27
Bullpen
Johnathan Papelbon 5-4-2.31 41
Hidecki Okajima 3-2-2.61 1
Manny Delcarmen 1-2-3.27 2
Justin Masterson 6-5-3.16
Whats to Like
1.Theo Epstein and da Boyz-The Sox have the best organization in all of baseball. From locking up vital members of their team. To trading players at the right time. To doing a great job of scouting and drafting. Yes they are a team with a large payroll but they still are considerably less than the Yankees.
2.The Sox have the deepest pitching staff in all of baseball. Just think if John Smoltz continues to heal he will join this terrific staff. Also I did not even mention Clay Buchholz who was the number 1 rated pitching prospect by Baseball Prosptus in 2008.
Whats Not to Like
1.Its Thin Out There-The Sox look most venerable in the outfield. Its certainly not a stretch to think JD Drew gets hurt at some point. As of now the backup outfielders are a very questionable Rocco Baldelli and Brad Wilkerson. This is the only part of the team that might need upgrading.
2.That Hurts-Many of the Sox players have a history of injury. Drew,Lowell,Ortiz,Baldelli,Beckett all have had spent time on the DL. The problem is the room for error is incredibly small in the AL East. If a few players go down here and there and the replacements while capable are not up to the level of the starters it might cost the Sox a few games over the course of the season. And it might be those few games that drops the Sox to being the third best team both in baseball AND the AL East.
Fantasy Focus
Dice K-So Dice K goes 18-3 with an ERA under 3 and plays on a terrific team so why is he not ranked in the top in fantasy pitchers? His stats speak on an ace, right? Well maybe not. Here is three stats that point to caution 1.His K/BB Ratio is a way below average 1.6. 2. His HR/FB was a very low 6%.3 And finally his BABIP(Batting Average of Balls In Play) was a ridiculously low 262. Sabermetrics has proven that for almost all pitchers BABIP is not a repeatable skill. The league average is right around 300. Regression to the mean is simply the rule. Dice K's BABIP in 2007 was 302. So he was probably quite lucky in 2008. I'm not saying he is not a good pitcher who is not worth owning. All I'm saying is don't expect a repeat of 2008.
Fun Fact
For a long time Red Sox Nation has lived and died with the longball. And if you ask most fans they would probably still say the Sox have one of the most powerful teams in all of baseball. But guess what the facts really don't back that up. They only hit 11 more HRs than the average AL team. Certanly not bad but not the awesome power some think they prowcess.
Outlook
As I write this I'd say the Red Sox have the best team in baseball from top to bottom. If Penney is healthy. and Smoltz is anywhere close to where he was before the injury when he returns(no rush) the Sox will have two MORE terrific pitchers at a bargain price. They also have money to spend at the trading deadline to trade for a player to make them better. About the only problems I see on the horizon are a rash of injury to their injury prone players and the teams that play in Tampa and the Bronx. I'd be VERY surprised if Red Sox Nation are not watching meaningful baseball in October for their beloved Sox.
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