Do You Feel Lucky???

The Hot Stove League these last few days have been as cold as a Florida night(stop laughing people from New York. All I know is I was chilly walking around EPCOT the other night). About the only pieces of news have been contract extensions and the World Baseball Classic. Two totally different topics, right? No wrong. Both topics are all about risk. Lets take contract extensions first. I don't know who or when started the trend of giving players who are not eligible for arbitration or free agency long term deals. Since the average raise in arbitration is 120% it makes sense to buy those years out. And recently teams are buying out the first couple of years of free agency. We saw this in the past week with Kevin Youkliss and Nick Markakis. The players make more in those first couple of years and have financial stability in case of injury or if something goes wrong. And the teams get players for below market value in the back part of their deals. The Mets deal with Jose Reyes and David Wright was a fantastic deal. The Rays really took a chance when they signed Evan Longoria to one of these kind of deals after only 1 week in the bigs. For hitters with a stable personality and a history of durability these contracts are truly a win-win situation. Teams can actually keep the key young players together. About the only losers are free agents who are looking for a huge payday. If Kevin Youkliss is averaging about 10 mil per. Guys like Bobby Abreu and Adam Dunn may now have to settle for 1 year contracts. Its no accident most of these deals are given to hitters. The Phils signed Cole Hamels to a 3 year deal for about 20.5 mil. They bought out his arbitration years. The Phils were smart only going 3 years. Pitchers in general get injured. Its very rare for pitchers not to go on the DL in a three year span. Also in a young pitcher we have found out its critically important for long term success to limit the amount of innings a young pitcher throws. So lets take Hamels as an example. He already has spent time on the DL 2 out of the past 3 years. So while it makes sense to give Markakis six years you'd NEVER give 6 years to a pitcher. For those of us old enough remember Doc Gooden in 1984-5. He looked like they would have to built him his own wing in Cooperstown. But alas things happen.

Now lets talk about the WBC. As a fan I like the idea of the WBC. Seeing meaningful baseball in March is better than watching 3rd stringers for the Braves and Astros battle it out. But if I was a GM it might be another story. If I'm Omar Minaya I'd give my blessing if David Wright wants to play for the US or If Jose Reyes wants to play for the DR. Those players will get their ABs one place or another. I'd just make sure they are not over aggressive. Now if Johan Santana was totally healthy I'd still tell him no way. If I had any starting pitcher I'd never let him participate. I'd be skeptical for relievers but I would not forbid it. Mike and I totally agree that Scott Kazmir pitching for the US is doing both himself and the Rays a disservice. During the course of an important WBC game its not hard to imagine a pitcher over throwing and injuring himself. Then what???? Its definitely not worth it for MLB teams. See like long term deals to pitchers its got to be about minimizing risks to your pitchers. And as we've seen this off season starting pitching is still VERY expensive.

As a last note about the WBC I'd love to see an infield for the DR that has Pujols at first, Reyes at 2nd, Han Ram at short and A-Rod at 3rd. That would be fun.