One Mans Fix

My favorite baseball website is baseballprospectus.com. It is not for everyone as some people may be turned off by the heavy use of sabermetrics. One reason why I like the site so much is when it challenges convential baseball wisdom it does with numbers. Currently they are in the middle of a seris called GM for a day. They take each team and make recommandations on how to improve the team. Yesterday they did the Mets and the recommandations were pretty interesting. Here are the highlites 1.For bullpen help DO NOT sign K-Rod instead sign both Kerry Wood and Juan Cruz. The logic being you can get both for about the same money as K-Rod and committ less years. 2.Go after Bobby Abreu. With the excess of corner outfielder on the market Abreu might be had for about 35 mil for 3 years. BP feels the Mets need a proven run producer in one of the corner outfield spots. 3.Let Pedro and Perez walk and sign Derek Lowe. The rotation would be Johan-Maine-Lowe-Pelfrey-Niese.

So what do I think. As for step 1 I agree that I don't want to invest neither 4 years or 12 mil per on a closer. The market is overflowing with candidates. Brian Fuentes, Kerry Wood and Trevor Hoffman are all free agents. And depending on what you beleive Bobby Jenks and Huston Street may be available for a trade. The Mets will certainly get somebody. I like Cruz. He can pitch anywhere in the pen and can even pitch multiple innings if necessary. And his price tag should be very reasonable. As for the outfield situation I agree the Mets definately need someone else. A proven run producer. Ryan Church's health is now in question after last season. And the left field combination of Daniel Murphy and Fernando Tatis could be improved. I'm sure one knock on Abreu is he is left handed and the Mets really don't need another lefty in their lineup. But last year Abreu hit lefties better than righties. Also no team in the division has a lefty closer. For me plan B should be Juan Rivera. He can play both left and rightfield. And when healthy has been a productive player. Also he will not be very expensive. Finally getting Derek Lowe may be easier said than done. As I see it there are 3 free agent pitchers worth signing. CC Sabathia is probably either going to the Yankees or Angels for Johan Santana money. Then comes AJ Burnett who will either go to Boston, Yankees , Atlanta or Toronto. Reports have the Braves offering him 60 mil for 4 years plus an option. That leaves Derek Lowe. I fear the Mets will be locked in a bidding war with the Yankees and Red Sox. And if the Yankees don't get CC they will certainly overpay for Lowe. As I see it there are no plan Bs. I'm not interseted Paul Byrd or Jon Garland. Maybe they can work a deal with the Rays for either Edwin Jackson or Andy Sommanstein. I know the Rays like Aaron Heilman but it will certainly take more than him to get one of those pitchers.

Anyway we should begin to see the pieces fall into place next week.