Theres No Place Like Home

Like Dorothy from the Wizard of Oz Randy Johnson wanted to go home. So he signed with the Giants. San Francisco is only 30 minutes from where he grew up and he also has spring training right near his current house. His deal is a great one for the Giants. His base salary is 1 year for 8 mil. His incentives that could bring 5 mil more. In today's market 13 mil is a bargain. Unit joins what is arguable the best starting staff in the NL. Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Barry Zito and Johnathan Sanchez. With the NL West having 2 teams(Colorado and San Diego) rebuilding. And 2 teams that are far from dominant(LA and Arizona) this signing gives the Giants a chance to contend. It has happened many times in baseball history where a team with very little hitting but great pitching surprises. With alot of players still out there as free agents maybe the Giants can get a run producing outfielder to bolster the offense. But I'd be careful who because all 5 of their starters are either neutral of fly ball pitchers. They would need to get someone to play good defense in LF.

Randy Johnson is a good argument on why why need to look a little deeper than the traditional numbers when evaluating players especially pitchers. As Fantasy players we all know that wins and ERA are critical. Without good win totals and ERA your team does not win. But in real baseball traditional pitching numbers leave alot to be desired. For example a starters win/loss record is dependant on MANY factors outside of his control. He may have a mediocre record not because he was mediocre but because of poor run support or the bullpen blowing leads for him. You don't have to look any further than Johan Santana's entire career. Also a pitcher is a slave to how well the defense plays behind him. I'm not necessarily talking about errors either. A good defensive teams turns potential hits into outs. So what does this have to do with Randy Johnson? Last year his numbers were a pedestrian 11-10 3.91 ERA. Now lets look a little closer. One of my favorite stats is Quality Starts. Its defined as a starter going 6 or more innings and giving up 3 runs or less. Essentially it means he gave his team a very good chance to win the game. Last year Unit was 18/30 for 60%. Oliver Perez was only 50%. AJ Burnett was only a little better at 63%. Another number I like to look at his strikeouts. Simply because the defense does not have to do anything for a strikeout its all the pitcher. Even as a 44 year old Unit averaged 8.46 Ks per 9 innings. Also RJs K/BB ratio was close to 4/1. So he is not beating himself. The stat that jumped out for me that bodes well for him is this. At Chase Field for a home park, a decent hitters park he surrendured 24 HRs in 184 IPs for the season. Now my question is how many of those fly balls stay in the park in AT&T? Since opposing batters only hit around 250 against him the Home Run is his main problem if that's taken away he could be in for a very nice year.

Also quickly Willy Taveras signed with Cincinnati. Taveras's skill set is obvious. He has very little power who can steal alot bases and play good defense. I think the Reds made this move out of desperation. If you look at their team the only outfielder who is remotely a starter is Jay Bruce. Taveras's numbers last year were truly awful. Remember he played in Coors Field where is OBP was 308. In 536 plate appearances in only walked 36 times. That is an horrific number for a lead off hitter. A more damning stat is for the whole season he only had 18 extra base hits. His slugging average was 296!!!! So Dusty Baker who loves to bunt gets the best bunter in baseball. The Reds have some building blocks with Jay Bruce and Joey Votto. And a decent group of starters led by Edinson Volquez. While I truly believe defense is an underrated part of baseball Taveras speed and defense do not make up for his shortcomings. At the end of the day if Taveras bounces back he is a small improvement over Cory Patterson. And if the Reds will contend in the future Willy Taveras will not be their CF.